A turning point in Donald Trump’s second term is approaching. On November 3, voters across the US will decide whether to keep the president’s Republican allies in control of Congress or return the Democrats to the majority. Many signs of voter sentiment suggest the Democrats are favored to take back the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate. Winning either would be a major victory for the party, giving it the power to block Trump’s legislative agenda and investigate his administration more aggressively. These charts and maps show where the battle for Congress will be fought.Here are the CSS variables and styles for the news graphics:
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Republicans currently hold a majority with 53 of 100 seats, while Democrats and their allies hold the remaining 47. Thirty-five seats are up for election this November. Senators serve six-year terms, with about a third facing voters every two years.
Current Senate: Republican majority 53, Democrats 47, 35 seats up.
In practice, though, the fight for the Senate is playing out across a very small map. The Cook Political Report, a leading US election forecaster, currently lists seven seats as tossups: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas. Two more — North Carolina and Kansas — are leaning Democrat and Republican respectively. Democrats need to win at least four Republican-held seats to gain a majority.
Latest Senate ratings: 0 competitive seats, Lean Democrat, Tossup, Lean Republican. Cook Political Report ratings, as of 1 October 2026.
At the start of 2026, Republicans looked well positioned in the Senate race, with many seats rated solid for the party by Cook and several others currently held by Democrats listed as tossups. But as Trump’s approval ratings fell over the year amid discontent over the Iran war and rising gas prices, Cook moved several races in Democrats’ direction, as did other major forecasters. A key example is Georgia, now rated as a likely Democratic win.
How the Senate map shifted toward Democrats: Start of 2026 rating, Current rating, Likely Dem., Lean Dem., Tossup, Lean Rep., Likely Rep. Cook ratings. Only states that have shifted within the ‘Likely’, ‘Lean’ and ‘Tossup’ categories are included; states moving from or to the ‘Solid’ categories are excluded.
In another sign of Democrats’ momentum, Texas, a longtime Republican stronghold, is considered in play this year. Recent polls show the party’s candidate ahead by a razor-thin margin.
Texas 2026 Senate election, latest polls: James Talarico, Member of Texas.The House of Representatives: 47.6% Ken Paxton, Attorney General of Texas: 44.7% Source: RealClearPolitics polling averages, as of 30 September 2026. Texas offers Democrats the chance for a historic victory. For decades the state has voted Republican, and no Democrat has won a Senate race since 1988. Senate voting history for Texas: Dem. +2pts, Rep. +2pts — Latest polls 2026: +2.9 winning margin. It has been similar in presidential elections, too. The last time Texans voted for a Democratic president was in the era of Jimmy Carter in the 1970s. In 2024, Trump won 56% of the vote to Kamala Harris’s 42%. Running for this seat is state representative James Talarico. Focusing on wealth inequality, he has called for billionaires to pay higher taxes. Your browser does not support the video element. Clip from a campaign video posted by James Talarico, as he addresses a crowd in Texas. “It’s time to start flipping tables,” is Talarico’s campaign slogan. The Republican nominee, state attorney general Ken Paxton, has highlighted his close relationship with Trump. The president endorsed Paxton in a video filmed in the Oval Office, in which he praised his work “defend[ing] our southern border from the Obama and Biden invasions.” Your browser does not support the video element. Donald Trump endorsing Ken Paxton in a clip posted on X. “Thank you very much, President Trump. We won’t let you down,” Paxton replied. Talarico’s focus on billionaires is echoed in the campaign for another Senate tossup currently held by a retiring Democrat: Michigan. Going up against Republican Mike Rogers is Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive Democrat who has been endorsed by figures like Harris and Bernie Sanders. The race is neck-and-neck but El-Sayed is currently polling slightly ahead. Michigan 2026 Senate election latest polls: Abdul El-Sayed, former public health official: 47.7%; Mike Rogers, former congressman: 44.1%. Source: RealClearPolitics polling averages, as of 30 September 2026. Michigan is a swing state at the presidential level, but Democrats have a long history of Senate victories, while no Republican has won a seat since 1994. Senate voting history for Michigan: Dem. +2pts, Rep. +2pts — Latest polls 2026: +3.6 winning margin. Trump has repeatedly broken through there. He won Michigan in 2016 and 2024, but lost the state to Joe Biden in 2020. Presidential voting history for Michigan. Galvanising El-Sayed’s campaign is his call for Medicare for All. The former public health official calls for expanding the program for elderly and disabled people to every American. He recently sparred with Fox News anchor Jesse Watters over the costs of such an expansion. Your browser does not support the video element. Abdul El-Sayed discussing Medicare for All on Fox News with a combative Jesse Watters. Polling suggests close to half of Michigan voters support the idea, though a sizeable number remain opposed. Responses to ‘Do you support a single-payer, Medicare for All style system of healthcare?’, September 2026: Support 49.2%, Oppose 40.2%, Neutral/neither/don’t know 10.6%. Glengariff Group poll commissioned by WDIV and Detroit News, 600 likely election voters in Michigan. Iowa may also prove to be a big test of Democratic fortunes. The state has grown very Republican since it twice backed Barack Obama, and hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 2008. This year, polls indicate Democrats may have a chance at winning its Senate seat. Iowa 2026 Senate election latest polls: Josh Turek, member of Iowa House of Representatives: 45.0%; Ashley Hinson, congresswoman for Iowa: 44.5%. Source: RealClearPolitics polling averages, as of 30 September 2026. Republican Ashley Hinson is neck-and-neck with her Democratic rival Josh Turek, a change from previous Senate races in Iowa. Senate voting history for Iowa: Dem. +0.5pts, Rep. +0.5pts — Latest polls 2026: +0.5 winning margin. And presidential elections show there is precedent for a blue upset in Iowa. Presidential voting history for Iowa. Iowa’s population is far more concentrated in the countryside compared to states currently represented bDemocratic senators, so a victory would represent a major expansion of the party’s coalition. Share of registered voters in rural areas: Democrat-senate state average vs Iowa. Rural voters in the average Democratic state: 33%. Rural voters in Iowa: 64%. Guardian analysis of Rural Democracy Initiative figures via the National Conference of State Legislatures. Republicans nonetheless dominate rural America. Most of the 14 states where Cook considers the Republican candidate certain to win are rural. Hinson has been trying to keep the party’s agricultural base on side by championing the year-round sale of gasoline with a higher concentration of biofuel, which could both lower prices at the pump and financially boost farmers. Your browser does not support the video element. Hinson speaking in the House in support of the bill. Turek, her opponent, is a two-time Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball. He recently released a campaign video in which he shoots hoops with Barack Obama, the last Democratic president to win Iowa. Your browser does not support the video element. Turek playing basketball with President Obama. As well as these key Senate races, the US House is up for grabs. It, too, is currently controlled by Republicans. Every seat is up for election, as members only serve two-year terms. Current House: Rep. majority 215-220. All 435 seats up for election. Overshadowing House elections is the unprecedented level of politically motivated redistricting seen in the run-up to the 2026 midterms. After Trump set off a redistricting war last year, nine states have redrawn congressional boundaries, some to benefit Democrats, others Republicans. Analysis suggests Republicans will gain more seats overall. Potential impact of House redistricting on 2026 midterms: +5R Texas, +5R Texas, +5R Texas, +5R Texas, +5R Texas, +4R Florida, +4R Florida, +4R Florida, +4R Florida, +2R Ohio, +2R Ohio, +1R Alabama, +1R Louisiana, +1R N. Carolina, +1R Tennessee, +1D Utah, +5D California, +5D California, +5D California, +5D California, +5D California. Net total: +9R. Source: Ballotpedia. This redistricting has been subject to several legal challenges. A Democratic gerrymander in Virginia was struck down by the state supreme court, and the US supreme court rejected a Republican attempt in Missouri. Yet the redistricting has not dashed Democratic hopes of taking the House. The Cook Report rates more than 40 races as competitive. Winning around half would hand Democrats a majority. Latest House ratings: 0 competitive seats, Lean Democrat, Tossup, Lean Republican. Cook Political Report ratings, as of 1 October 2026. In New York City’s exurbs, Republican Mike Lawler hopes to win a third term representing his swing district by turning voters against democratic socialist mayor Zohran Mamdani. “Socialism, communism and Marxism have no place in New York City and no place in America,” said Lawler, a top target of Democrats. New York 17th 2026 House election: Mike Lawler, Incumbent; Cait Conley, Former army officer. Polling averages unavailable for districts. One of nearly two dozen Democrats in districts Trump won in 2024, Marcy Kaptur has represented northwestern Ohio since 1983, the longest-ever tenure for a woman in Congress. Newly redrawn boundaries have increased her district’s Republican lean, making her re-election bid an important test of whether voters are still willing to split their tickets between parties. Ohio 9th 2026 House election: Marcy Kaptur, Incumbent; Derek Merrin, Former Ohio state representative. Polling averages unavailable for districts. The One Big Beautiful Bill is a major issue in this California district. The Republican incumbent David Valadao voted for the Trump-backed measure, which extends tax cuts for wealthy people and corporations while slashing the Medicaid program for poor and disabled people. His constituents have some of the highest Medicaid enrollment rates in the country. California 22nd 2026 House election: David Valadao, Incumbent; Randy Villegas, Former teacher. Polling averages unavailable for districts. It’s possible whichever party wins the House achieves onlyA single-digit majority of seats, as Republicans have had for the past four years. But there’s also a chance that this year will see a “blue wave” of wins by Democratic candidates, even in districts that Trump won by wide margins in 2024.
Either way, history favors the party out of power in the midterms, particularly in the battle for the House. All recent presidents have lost control of a chamber in midterm elections, including Trump in 2018.
Polling shows there has been a nationwide shift toward the Democrats in the run-up to the midterms, even in states Republicans have dominated for decades. Many recent surveys of the generic ballot, a key indicator of voters’ intent in congressional elections, give the Democrats an edge ranging from the high single digits to the low double digits.Democrats have a healthy lead in national polling. Average of polls for the 2026 generic congressional ballot, which asks voters nationwide who they plan to vote for in the House midterms. Oct 40% 45% 50% Guardian graphic. Source: Silver Bulletin polling average, which weights individual polls by sample size, recency, and pollster rating.
This year’s events—especially the Iran war and its effect on inflation—have clearly changed the race, and much of the advantage appears to have shifted to the Democrats. In all key races, Democratic candidates have campaigned on affordability, at a time when the Trump administration’s actions in the Middle East have driven up prices, particularly for gasoline and diesel. This reflects how concerned US voters are about the economy, rating it as the most important issue in surveys, far ahead of immigration, healthcare, or civil rights.@media (prefers-color-scheme: dark) {
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font-famMeanwhile, Trump’s personal ratings have also dropped. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only 32% of US adults now approve of his job performance. That’s lower than his previous worst of 34%, recorded by Gallup at the end of his first term in 2021 after the January 6 attack on the US Capitol. The 2026 midterms could bring another harsh reckoning for the US president — the question is whether voters’ punishment will push him to change course.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of frequently asked questions about the US midterm races and the battle for Congress
The Basics
What are the midterm elections
They are the general elections held in the United States in November two years after a presidential election They are called midterms because they occur in the middle of a presidents fouryear term
What is at stake in these elections
Control of Congress All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and about onethird of the seats in the Senate are up for election
Why does control of Congress matter
The party that controls Congress gets to set the legislative agenda decide which bills get voted on and lead powerful committees It also acts as a check on the presidents power
What is the difference between the House and the Senate
The House Has 435 members Representation is based on a states population Members serve twoyear terms so they are always up for election
The Senate Has 100 members Senators serve sixyear terms so only about a third of them are up for election every two years
How often do midterm elections happen
Every two years always in November on evennumbered years
How It Works
How is control of Congress determined
It comes down to simple math The party that wins 218 seats in the House or 51 seats in the Senate takes control of that chamber
What is a map in the context of these races
The map is a term used to describe which states and districts have competitive races Analysts and reporters create maps to show which seats are safe for one party which are tossups and where the key battlegrounds are
Why is the Senate map different every cycle
Because only onethird of Senate seats are up at a time Depending on which states are holding elections that year the map can be very favorable or very difficult for a particular party
What does it mean to flip a seat
It means a seat held by one party is won by the other party in the election
What is a tossup race
Its a race where neither candidate has a clear advantage and the outcome is
