In 1930, Trinidad and Tobago supplied over 40% of the British Empire’s oil. By the 1970s, the newly independent nation was producing 278,000 barrels of crude oil per day. For a country of just one million people, oil became a transformative force after the decline of its sugar and cocoa industries.
Today, with a population of 1.5 million and oil production falling to under 54,000 barrels per day, Trinidad and Tobago stands at a turning point. The country’s only oil refinery closed in 2018 due to mismanagement and falling output from the state-owned company Petrotrin. A recent report showed that energy revenues dropped 48.4% to $14.7 billion (£10.9 billion) in the last fiscal year, while non-energy revenues rose by 26% to $32.7 billion.
With crude oil production declining since the 2000s—while natural gas output first rose and then fell sharply—the country is at an impasse. Environmental advocates are urging a shift toward a greener economy, but the new government, like those before it, is promoting more deepwater oil exploration.
“We have fallen victim to ‘Dutch disease’—an overreliance on a single sector that has shaped our economic and social identity,” says Indera Sagewan, an economist and director of the Caribbean Centre for Competitiveness. “Economic diversification beyond energy is essential for Trinidad and Tobago’s future. We are at a defining moment.”
Unlike other oil-rich nations such as Norway, the UAE, and Qatar, Trinidad and Tobago has not fully leveraged its Heritage and Stabilisation Fund, created in 2007 to invest surplus oil revenues and preserve wealth for future generations.
According to an OECD report from December, the country now faces the risk of long-term low growth. GDP grew an estimated 1.7% last year, up from 1.4% in 2023. The government is also contending with rising unemployment and fiscal strain, with public debt reaching 64.5% of GDP in 2024—higher than the Central American and Caribbean average of 51.9%.
To break out of this low-growth cycle, experts like Sagewan have long recommended economic diversification—a major challenge for a country heavily dependent on oil and gas exports.
Introduced in 2022, the country’s green hydrogen strategy is a step in this direction. It aims to transform the energy sector by shifting from grey hydrogen (produced from natural gas, emitting CO₂) to green hydrogen (made using renewable energy to split water), utilizing existing petrochemical infrastructure. The goal is to produce 4 million tonnes of green hydrogen annually by 2065. The country also plans to install 57 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2065, targeting 30% renewable electricity generation.
However, Sagewan notes that these plans are still in very early stages.
On August 13, Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar’s government signaled its continued focus on fossil fuels by signing a deal with ExxonMobil to explore a large ultra-deepwater area off the country’s east coast. The block covers more than 7,000 square kilometers in waters over 2 kilometers deep.
If reserves are discovered, Energy Minister Roodal Moonilal estimates investments could reach up to $21.7 billion. The agreement highlights the new administration’s commitment to deepwater drilling and the search for new oil finds in unexplored areas.Atlantic waters are seeing an oil rush similar to the one in nearby Guyana and Suriname. “There isn’t a strong movement here calling to stop oil and gas exploration in Trinidad and Tobago,” says Dax Driver, CEO of the Energy Chamber, the industry’s lobby group.
Since the first oil well was drilled in the 19th century and offshore gas fields were discovered in the 1990s, fossil fuels have been the backbone of Trinidad and Tobago’s economy, bringing infrastructure and wealth that far surpasses that of its Caribbean neighbors.
Oil revenues have improved lives in many ways: free university education, widespread public-sector jobs, and heavily subsidized electricity, gas, and water—some of the cheapest utilities in the world—along with petrol prices a third of those in the UK. A strong middle class and a wealthy elite emerged, and highways, hospitals, and airports were built.
But this wealth also led to corruption, inequality, and violent crime. The country remains heavily reliant on oil, while drilling and spills endanger fragile ecosystems.
Now, experts are questioning how close Trinidad and Tobago is to a crisis. A 2019 report by a US consultancy estimated only 10 years of gas reserves remained. Last year, then-energy minister Stuart Young said reserves had increased to 11 years, or possibly 20 with efficient extraction. However, OPEC data shows crude oil output is plummeting, and gas production is also declining.
The urgency isn’t just environmental—it’s economic, social, and generational, says Dizzanne Billy.
Driver notes, “Based on current data, Trinidad and Tobago’s gas reserve-to-production ratio is about 10 years.”
In contrast, Guyana and Suriname have discovered vast offshore reserves with hundreds of years of supply, boosting their fossil fuel revenues. These discoveries have raised hopes that new fields could be developed in Trinidad and Tobago. “New technology could help find more reserves,” says Driver, “or we could drill deeper.”
A recent gas discovery between Tobago and Barbados has given fossil fuel advocates more optimism. But uncertainty remains, as much of the deep Atlantic is still unexplored. Offshore territory extends 125 miles into the Atlantic, though recovery rates are low—only about 10 to 15% per oilfield.
After April’s elections returned the United National Congress (UNC) party to power under Persad-Bissessar, heavy investment in oil and gas exploration has again become a priority.
Roodal Moonilal, the new energy minister, says the government supports decarbonization efforts, such as the Brechin Castle solar farm—the largest in the region, capable of supplying 10% of the nation’s electricity. Still, fossil fuels remain the focus. “We need to find more natural gas,” the minister states.
He adds, “Natural gas production fell by 34% from 2015 to 2024, and oil declined by 35% over the same period. At the end of 2022, proven gas reserves stood at 57 trillion cubic feet [1.14 billion tonnes].”This area holds great potential for future discoveries, especially in deepwater regions. Deepwater exploration is a priority for us.
Moonilal also notes that Trinidad and Tobago aims to export its energy expertise. “Guyana, Suriname, and Grenada are at various stages of hydrocarbon development. We have strong human resources, infrastructure, and facilities that require raw materials,” he says. “We see this as a win-win situation.”
The Brechin Castle solar farm is the largest project of its kind in the region.
Despite this enthusiasm for oil and gas, environmentalists and economists warn that relying on fossil fuels exposes Trinidad and Tobago to ecological damage, price instability, and socioeconomic risks, especially in a region prone to extreme weather.
According to the OECD, the climate crisis has cost Caribbean countries an average of 2.13% of their GDP each year from 1980 to 2020. Trinidad’s per capita emissions are the eighth highest globally, at 22.8 tonnes—more than five times the UK’s rate.
Aidan Farrell from the University of the West Indies notes that the Caribbean has warmed by about 1°C since 1960, with a similar increase expected by 2050. “There is growing concern about food production. The government is preparing for more frequent tropical storms, rising sea levels, and coastal erosion, which threaten key economic activities, including oil and gas,” he says.
Environmentalists argue that the ecological damage is already severe. “Oil spills, gas flaring, and industrial waste have degraded ecosystems, harmed fisheries, and put coastal communities at risk,” says Dizzanne Billy, regional director of Climate Tracker Caribbean. “We face a troubling paradox: a small island suffering the worst effects of climate change while contributing significantly to the problem.”
The country has experienced several environmental disasters in recent years. In 2024, a capsized barge caused a national emergency, with oil spreading hundreds of miles to Bonaire, polluting beaches, mangroves, and coral.
Billy emphasizes the urgent need to move away from fossil fuels. “This isn’t just an environmental issue—it’s economic, social, and generational,” she says. “Fossil fuel wealth hasn’t been shared equally. Frontline communities face underinvestment while dealing with environmental harm. This is a climate justice issue.”
For advocates like Billy, continuing to focus on fossil fuels is shortsighted. “Our dependence makes us vulnerable to global price shocks,” she says.
Diversification is still in its early stages. Tourism is limited outside of spring carnival, and agriculture needs significant development to help replace oil revenues.
Still, some see potential in other sectors. Sagewan views the country as a future global food exporter. Michael J Cooper, an energy finance expert and former ministry analyst, expects banking and insurance to grow with a development strategy over the next decade. He lists manufacturing, tourism, film, entertainment, shipping, shipbuilding, ship repair, and food production as viable alternatives.
“We have a well-educated and highly skilled workforce compared to other developing countries,” he says. “While energy production is declining slowly, the government should act early to support other sectors.”
Billy calls for a new model focused on renewables, regenerative agriculture, and digital services.She emphasizes the need for policies that empower workers to transition with dignity through reskilling, support systems, and clear pathways into new industries. This involves shifting power to the communities most affected by the current economic model and placing them at the center of redesigning the economy.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about Trinidad and Tobagos energy turning point designed to be clear and helpful for a wide audience
General Beginner Questions
1 What does a defining moment or turning point mean for Trinidad and Tobago
It means the country has reached a critical juncture where it must make major decisions about its economic future as its main source of incomeoil and gasis declining
2 Why are the oil reserves dwindling
The easily accessible large reservoirs of oil and natural gas have been mostly extracted after decades of production Finding new reserves is becoming harder more expensive and often yields smaller quantities
3 Why is this such a big deal for the country
Revenue from oil and gas funds a significant portion of the national budget It pays for public services like healthcare education and infrastructure Less revenue means less money for these essential services and could impact the overall economy
4 What is the difference between oil and natural gas for TTs economy
While both are important natural gas is currently the bigger player It fuels the massive petrochemical and liquefied natural gas industries which are major exporters and employers
Economic Advanced Questions
5 What are the main economic risks if we dont adapt
The main risks are a shrinking economy a devaluation of the Trinidad and Tobago dollar reduced government spending on public services higher national debt and increased unemployment
6 What is economic diversification and why is it always mentioned
Economic diversification means developing other strong industries beyond oil and gas Its mentioned so often because its the primary strategy to create new jobs and revenue streams making the economy less vulnerable to the boomandbust cycle of energy prices
7 What other industries could TT develop
Potential areas include
Renewable Energy Solar wind and hydrogen power
Marine Maritime Industries Ship repair yachting and oceanbased aquaculture
Creative Digital Industries Film music animation and tech services
Tourism Especially ecotourism cultural tourism and medical tourism
Manufacturing Using our port infrastructure to make and export goods
