'The last bastion has fallen': the US right idolized Orbán's Hungary. Can they recover now that he has fallen?

'The last bastion has fallen': the US right idolized Orbán's Hungary. Can they recover now that he has fallen?

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“`The provided text is CSS code, not prose, so it cannot be rewritten into fluent English while keeping the meaning intact. If you’d like, I can explain what the CSS selectors do in plain English.This CSS styles the first letter of paragraphs that follow certain elements, creating a drop cap effect. The first letter uses the Guardian Headline font at 111px size with 92px line height, floats left, is uppercase, and has an 8px right margin. The color is set by a CSS variable.

It also removes top padding from paragraphs that follow horizontal rules, limits pull quotes to 620px wide, and adjusts figure captions in showcase elements to be static and full-width up to 620px. On wider screens (71.25em and up), captions become absolutely positioned with a max width of 140px, increasing to 220px on screens 81.25em and wider.

Immersive elements span the full viewport width minus the scrollbar. On smaller screens they’re capped at 978px with inline padding of 10px, or 20px on screens between 30em and 71.24em. Between 46.25em and 61.24em they’re capped at 738px. Below 46.24em they shift left by 10px (or 20px on screens 30em and up) with no right margin.

On screens 71.25em and wider, showcase figures in the body get a -160px left margin, and on screens 81.25em and wider the same applies to figures in interactive main columns.This is CSS code, not prose, so there’s no natural English to rewrite. If you’d like, I can explain what this stylesheet does in plain English.The provided text is CSS code, not prose, so there is no meaning to preserve or simplify in natural English. If you’d like, I can instead explain what this stylesheet does in plain English, or reformat/clean up the CSS itself.r(–darkModeFeature) ) !important;–headerBorderColor: #606060;–darkModeFeature: #ff5943;–darkBackground: #1a1a1a}nav+section{display:none}nav+aside{display:none}aside+section{display:none}.furniture-wrapper{background-color:var(–darkBackground);margin:0 -10px;padding:0 10px 4px}@media (min-width: 30em){.furniture-wrapper{margin:0 -20px;padding:0 20px 8px}}@media (min-width: 61.25em){.furniture-wrapper{padding:0 20px}}@media (min-width: 81.25em){.furniture-wrapper:before{content:””;width:calc((100vw – 1298px)/2);height:100%;position:absolute;left:calc((100vw – 1298px)/-2);background-color:var(–darkBackground);border-right:1px solid var(–headerBorderColor)}.furniture-wrapper:after{content:””;width:calc((100vw – 1298px)/2);height:100%;position:absolute;right:calc((100vw – 1298px)/-2);background-color:var(–darkBackground)}}.furniture-wrapper .article-header,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=title] a,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=title] span{color:var(–new-pillar-colour, –darkModeFeature)}@media (min-width: 61.25em){.furniture-wrapper #headline>div:first-child,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=headline]>div:first-child,.furniture-wrapper .headline>div:first-child{border-top:1px solid var(–headerBorderColor)}}.furniture-wrapper #headline h1,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=headline] h1,.furniture-wrapper .headline h1{font-weight:700;color:#dcdcdc}.furniture-wrapper #headline figure,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=headline] figure,.furniture-wrapper .headline figure{margin-top:0;margin-bottom:2px}@media (min-width: 71.25em){.furniture-wrapper #meta:before,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=meta]:before{background-color:var(–headerBorderColor)}}.furniture-wrapper #meta details,.furniture-wrapper #meta summary,.furniture-wrapper #meta summary span,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=meta] details,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=meta] summary,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=meta] summary span{color:#dcdcdc}.furniture-wrapper #meta .meta__social a,.furniture-wrapper #meta .meta__social button,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=meta] .meta__social a,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=meta] .meta__social button{border-color:var(–headerBorderColor);color:var(–new-pillar-colour, –darkModeFeature)}.furniture-wrapper #meta .meta__social a svg,.furniture-wrapper #meta .meta__social button svg,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=meta] .meta__social a svg,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=meta] .meta__social button svg{fill:var(–new-pillar-colour, –darkModeFeature)}.furniture-wrapper #meta .meta__social a:hover,.furniture-wrapper #meta .meta__social button:hover,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=meta] .meta__social a:hover,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=meta] .meta__social button:hover{color:var(–darkBackground);background-color:var(–new-pillar-colour, –darkModeFeature)}.furniture-wrapper #meta .meta__social a:hover svg,.furniture-wrapper #meta .meta__social button:hover svg,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=meta] .meta__social a:hover svg,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=meta] .meta__social button:hover svg{fill:var(–darkBackground)}.furniture-wrapper #meta div,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=meta] div{color:#dcdcdc}.furniture-wrapper #meta a,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=meta] a{color:var(–new-pillar-colour, –darkModeFeature)}.furniture-wrapper #meta a:hover,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=meta] a:hover{color:var(–new-pillar-colour, –darkModeFeature);text-decoration-color:var(–new-pillar-colour, –darkModeFeature)}.furniture-wrapper .standfirst a,.furniture-wrapper .standfirst li a,.furniture-wrapper #standfirst a,.furniture-wrapper #standfirst li a,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=standfirst] a,.furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=standfirst] li a{border-bottom:none;color:var(–new-pillar-colour, –darkModeFeature);background-image:none!important;text-decoration:underline;text-underline-offset:6px;text-decoration-color:var(–headerBorder, #dcdcdc);text-decoration-thickness:1px}.furniture-wrapper .standfirst a:hover,.furniture-wrapper .standfirst li a:hover,.furniture-wrapper #standfirst a:hover,.furniture-wrapper #standfHere is the text rewritten in fluent, natural English:

The following CSS rules apply to links inside list items within the standfirst and furniture wrapper: on hover, they should have no bottom border, and the text decoration color should use the new pillar colour or the dark mode feature colour.

Paragraphs inside the standfirst and furniture wrapper should have a text color of #dcdcdc. On screens at least 61.25em wide, the first paragraph gets a top border using the header border color. On screens at least 71.25em wide, that top border is removed.

List items inside the standfirst and furniture wrapper should also have a text color of #dcdcdc. On screens at least 71.25em wide, the standfirst’s before pseudo-element should use the header border color as its background.

On screens at least 46.25em wide, the furniture wrapper gets before and after pseudo-elements. Both are full height, positioned at the top, and use the dark background color. The before element sits on the left with a right border in the header border color, while the after element sits on the right with a left border in the header border color. Their widths and offsets are calculated from the viewport width minus the scrollbar width and a fixed content width, divided by two.

At wider breakpoints (61.25em, 71.25em, and 81.25em), these pseudo-elements keep the same structure, but the fixed content width used in the calculation increases to 978px, 1138px, and 1298px respectively.

SVG icons in the keyline-4 and lines elements should be stroked with the header border color. The social and comment elements in the meta section, including link spans inside the social list, should use the header border color for their borders.

In article body and interactive article body sections, h2 headings should have a font weight of 200. If an h2 contains a strong element, it should instead have a font weight of 700.

Unordered lists marked to be hidden in print layout should have no background image.

When the rendering target is set to apps, several custom properties are defined: the follow text and standfirst text colors are #dcdcdc; the follow icon fill, standfirst link text, standfirst link border, and byline use the new pillar colour; the article meta lines use the header border color; and the byline also uses the dark mode pillar colour.

In that same apps rendering mode, byline spans should use the new pillar colour. A byline span containing a div immediately followed by a FollowWapper element should get a background image made of the header border color, a 1px header border color, and a transparent 1px.

Finally, a media query for prefers-color-scheme begins but is cut off.Espresso Embassy, a third-wave coffee shop in Budapest’s diplomatic and government district, is where visiting reporters and academics come to discuss politics. On my way in for morning coffee on 18 March, I passed a poster for Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party that had been defaced with a marker pen: “the safe choice” had become “the certain way to get fucked.” Across the cafe, I spotted the American journalist and historian Anne Applebaum deep in conversation, possibly with a source. I heard someone exclaim: “Just like Mussolini!” It was election season in Hungary.

It was also a couple of days before Cpac Hungary, a satellite event of the US-based conservative conference. As members of the international right arrived in town, the notorious Orbánist thinktank known as the Danube Institute was hosting an event called On Censorship, Tolerance, the Left and God. The official line would be: bad, good, bad, good.

After dark, I walked along the walls of Buda Castle and past the Jesuit stairs to the institute. The featured speakers were Dave Rubin, an American podcaster from the so-called “intellectual dark web,” and Eva Vlaardingerbroek, a Dutch provocateur who claimed the title “shieldmaiden of the far right” on her X profile. “You don’t realise how good you have it” in Hungary, Rubin said. “So many things are wrong across the west.” After the panel, an American man introduced himself to me and asked how long I’d been in Budapest. Had I ever considered dual citizenship? If so, he could help. “My friends,” he said, “call me the Harriet Tubman of white people.”

For the previous few months, I’d been hanging around the Danube Institute and other state-subsidised gathering places, trying to pass as yet another member of the rightwing intelligentsia making his pilgrimage to Budapest. Founded in 2013 with state funds redirected by the Orbán government, the institute had become known as the central hub of the emerging “postliberal” movement, a loose coalition of heterodox conservative thinkers frequently associated with the idiosyncratic American blogger and self-styled Christian dissident Rod Dreher. During Dreher’s first fellowship term at the Danube Institute in 2021, he helped arrange Tucker Carlson’s weeklong press junket in Hungary, which featured a fawning Fox News interview with Orbán. Since then, liberal publications such as the New York Times, the New Yorker and the Atlantic have dispatched journalists to grill Dreher about the institute and his relationship to Orbán’s autocratic regime. This produced a series of breathless reports that showcased the small thinktank as a clearinghouse for dangerous illiberal ideas. As Applebaum wrote in her book Twilight of Democracy: “The Danube Institute exists, in practice, to make the Hungarian government presentable to the outside world.”

In Applebaum’s view, the Orbán regime had “created a political system in which no opposition party could possibly win,” and the foreign intellectuals at the Danube Institute were either cynical propagandists or naive stooges for Orbán’s anti-democratic project. But soon, Orbán would be out of power, ousted in a landslide election in April, and in June the new Hungarian parliament would pass a constitutional amendment dismantling the patronage system that funds the Danube Institute, as well as MCC Brussels, a training ground for Fidesz elites.

It was end times for the postliberals in Budapest, even if they didn’t know it yet. What will survive the demise of the so-called Budapest scene is a fractured group of rightwing thinkers who, whatever their fate in Hungary, will continue to hold a frightening level of influence over US political culture. If they were ever Orbán’s puppets, they aren’t any more. But rReducing them to unthinking servants of one particular strongman has made it harder to confront the real threat of postliberal ideas – or the crisis they are responding to. Officially, I was in Budapest to write a book about the western intellectuals who travelled to Hungary to meet the dissident opposition during the final years of the communist era. My family and I were guests of the Institute for Advanced Study, which had once been called the Collegium Budapest before the Orbán government effectively closed it in 2011. Now reopened, it was part of the remnant of Central European University that still remained in Hungary. The rest of the institution had been forced to move to Vienna during a prolonged campaign against George Soros and Hungary’s independent civil society. At the start of this year, I made it my half-ironic mission to infiltrate the Danube Institute. I really did want to see what was actually going on inside this thinktank that had become known as the headquarters of the international postliberal project. Reaching it was not hard. It is housed in the Lónyay-Hatvany Villa, a refurbished building that had briefly served as an SS casino during the second world war and now housed a high-end restaurant on its main floor. One evening, I climbed a steep staircase dimly lit by iron sconces, the yellow light reflecting off wet stone, until I reached a narrow passage closed in by two high walls. Up ahead, I noticed a doorway marked only by a floor lamp on a small red carpet. I hesitated, then entered. View image in fullscreen Péter Magyar celebrates his Tisza party’s victory in the Hungarian general election in April. Photograph: dts News Agency Germany/Shutterstock Straight in front of me was a dining room with a commanding view of the Danube. I snapped a few photos with my phone until I heard someone behind me on the stairs. I hurried into the basement annexe and reached a check-in table. I gave a young assistant my name, and she pointed towards a coat check. It turned out that infiltrating the Danube Institute just required online registration. In the brightly lit basement, a shelf offered complimentary issues of glossy rightwing journals such as The European Conservative and Hungarian Review. I picked up a copy of the then state-subsidised Hungarian Conservative with a painting by Tivadar Csontváry Kosztka on the cover; its title was Mysterious Island. The other guests were beginning to arrive, and I was immediately worried I’d been misled by a New Yorker piece on Dreher, in which he told a journalist that “the Danube Institute had a casual dress code” and he “could usually leave the suits at the apartment” even when meeting with ministers from Orbán’s Fidesz party. But here was a parade of male intellectual fashion: ribbed turtlenecks; crocheted ties and silk cravats; blazers of tweed, linen and corduroy. I looked down at my rumpled blazer – the only one I own – and felt underdressed. In the months to come, I would jot down scraps of overheard conversation. Much of it was unsurprising, especially for anyone who had spent time on X: “We’re going to interrogate him with truth serum”, “No one is linking except Tucker”, “Hitler would have gone broke on her OnlyFans”, “Do you have a contact for Vance?” All the knowing gossip and memes were part of a game of one-upmanship among intellectuals who styled themselves as insiders. Still, there was something jarring about seeing this very online culture in the flesh. Most of the names they dropped were exactly the ones you’d expect. What did catch me off guard was how often I also heard them mention the names of the liberal journalists who had alerted me to the existence of the Danube Institute in the first place. If Hungary looms large for people like Applebaum, she, in turn, haunts the postliberal imagination; these guys all clearly read the Atlantic. “Anne Applebaum, I think she’s great,” I overheard one of the institute’sAs fellows wisecrack at the bar. “I really respect her.” At the very first event I attended, a debate on How Non-Liberal Regimes Rule Through the Good Life, the main speaker referred to Applebaum as “persona non grata” at the Danube Institute. The postliberal economist Philip Pilkington responded: “I do find the descent into Applebaumism hilarious.” Pilkington was referring to Applebaum’s stubborn tendency to divide the world between liberal democracies and illiberal autocracies, between virtuous and corrupt elites. This “moral purity test” was not only hypocritical, he pointed out, it was intellectually unserious. According to Pilkington, it prevented liberal elites from accurately seeing themselves. The “crude” Applebaum analysis, he said, doesn’t “have a good explanation of why liberalism is falling apart.”

Part of the appeal of postliberalism is that it does provide an account of why it feels as though everything is falling apart: a liberal world order could never have turned out otherwise. At least this is Pilkington’s view, as expressed in his 2025 book, The Collapse of Global Liberalism. Born in Ireland, Pilkington is a millennial former leftist who took a job in finance and then moved to Hungary, where until June he was employed at the Danube Institute and the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, then another Fidesz-aligned thinktank. For him, “liberalism is, in the final analysis, a dark and uncivilised philosophy of life that will destroy any civilisation it touches.”

Equally comfortable making sweeping claims about “Marxian historical materialism” and offering hot takes about yoga pants as a symptom of civilisational decline, Pilkington argues that the drive to demolish all hierarchies is “self-undermining” and “self-destructive”: “The reality is that equality does not exist in most spheres.” Liberal capitalism, according to this line of thought, only ever appeared stable because it was built on a foundation of pre-liberal hierarchical structures, such as the church, family and classical legal traditions. Now it has become a victim of its own self-undermining success. As Pilkington puts it, “liberal capitalism” became “far too aggressive in its promotion of work and consumption and is undermining the building blocks on which the stability of society rests”, namely “the family and the ability to reproduce the species.”

The postliberal movement’s foundational text is 2018’s Why Liberalism Failed by the philosopher Patrick Deneen, another visitor to the Danube Institute. The title of Deneen’s book captures the shared premise of all postliberal thought: that the historical period in which western societies were governed by a “regime of liberalism”, as he put it elsewhere, has already reached a calamitous end. Whether that period began in 1989 with the fall of communist regimes in central and eastern Europe or 500 years ago with the Protestant reformation remains a matter of some obfuscation.

For postliberals, the collapse of liberalism was an inevitable outgrowth of its first principles: its anti-hierarchical commitment to formal equality, its faith in human progress and, above all, its emphasis on individual autonomy. In practice, Deneen argues, these values actually produced extreme economic inequality, spiritual debasement and a profound sense of unfreedom. “Liberalism has failed,” he writes, “not because it fell short, but because it was true to itself.”

View image in fullscreenArgentina’s president, Javier Milei, on stage at Cpac Hungary in March. Photograph: Gergely Besenyei/AFP/Getty Images

At least initially, the postliberals seemed more solicitous of the populist masses than of the Republican old guard: they supported Donald Trump, who was then styling himself as a champion for a new working-class coalition against the elite establishment. Deneen and other postliberals claimed their goal was toThey sought to transcend the toxic left-right divide in US politics by positioning themselves as both allies of social democracy and enemies of corporate progressivism. Indeed, they insisted that the only way to defeat the disastrous post-Cold War alliance between neoliberal economics and neoconservative foreign policy was through a novel fusion of social-conservative values and left economic ideas. After postliberalism relocated to Hungary, it became more true to itself. The year after its publication, Why Liberalism Failed was translated into Hungarian, and Deneen met Orbán in Budapest. In the years after 2018, the Danube Institute and other regime-supported institutions hosted nearly every major American postliberal intellectual in Budapest. Many are now familiar figures on the so-called New Right. To use a basketball analogy, if Deneen was the philosopher-coach and Dreher was the veteran point guard on this postliberal squad, the rest of the starting five might include the Catholic integralist Adrian Vermeule; the national conservative Yoram Hazony; the censorious culture warrior Christopher Rufo; and the shapeshifting opinion columnist, UnHerd editor and Compact magazine cofounder Sohrab Ahmari, with the political theorist Gladden Pappin coming in off the bench. Back in the US, Pappin had been a junior academic before he began writing blog posts for the Journal of American Greatness under the pen name Manlius Capitolinus. By now, all of Pappin’s posts as Manlius Capitolinus have been taken down, but he subsequently published a series of revealing essays under his own name in another journal. In Toward a Party of the State, from 2019, Pappin argued that the “liberal conservatism” of the old Republican establishment had failed precisely because it became a handmaid to the “governing ideology of neoliberalism,” a form of statecraft without a moral vision of the good life. Drawing on left thinkers such as Nancy Fraser, Pappin suggested that neoliberalism maintained its fragile legitimacy by “redefining itself as progressive,” creating an unholy alliance between pro-corporate and socially liberal constituencies. To overcome the “neoliberal ideological hegemony,” according to this theory, we need a national unity government with a strong, activist party-state led by intellectuals, among them, presumably, Pappin himself. At the time, postliberals could still squint and see Trump as a vessel for this project. After Trump’s defeat in 2020, Pappin visited Budapest for the first time, and before long, he had relocated to Hungary. In 2023, he was appointed president of the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, a highly unusual position for a foreign national. Pappin now had the opportunity to learn from the Fidesz party-state and start putting his ideas into practice. To postliberals, Orbán’s governing programme looked like a dream come true. As Rufo, coming off his stint at the Danube Institute, put it in 2023: “Hungary’s leaders are serious people combating the same forces confronted by conservatives in the west: the fraying of national culture, entrenched leftwing institutions and the rejection of sexual difference.” But, compared with the contemporary Republican party, Orbán seemed exhilaratingly willing to use the power of the state to pursue a conservative vision of the good life. Orbán was the great defender of the postliberal trinity: “strong families, strong borders, strong industry,” as Pappin said in an interview with the Atlantic. “Orbánomics” consisted of a series of interventions to build up Hungary’s car manufacturing capacity, ensure access to less expensive Russian energy and increase work requirements for welfare recipients, raising taxes on banks and even nationalising some. Defying the EU, the Orbán regime also pursued a so-called “zero migration” policy. But the postliberals were perhaps most enamoured of Orbán’s efforts to encourage traditional family formation and raise the birthrate. Since 2022Hungary has spent about 5% of its GDP each year on a range of welfare programs offering generous maternity leave, childcare support, and tax breaks for mothers.

View image in fullscreen. JD Vance meets Patrick Deneen at a panel discussion at Catholic University, Washington in May 2023. Photograph: Francis Chung/POLITICO/AP

As Rufo explained, these seemingly “progressive” policies were meant to serve “conservative ends”: first, “to incentivise traditional marriage and family formation”; second, to help ward off “foreign ideologies, such as critical race theory and gender ideology”; and third, because “raising the native Hungarian birthrate obviates the need for foreign immigration.” Hungary’s student debt policy also allowed new mothers to suspend, reduce, or ultimately erase their debt entirely, depending on how many children they had given birth to. In 2023, Pappin pointed to Hungary’s student debt program as a model for the kinds of policies the Republican Party should pursue.

During the Biden years, the postliberals yearned for the kind of power and stability in the US that Orbán enjoyed in Hungary. In Deneen’s 2023 book Regime Change: Toward a Postliberal Future, the philosopher was no longer just diagnosing the problem with liberalism; he was suggesting a radical solution. Deneen now called for a revolutionary turn to “aristopopulism,” in which a cadre of elites would act as “class traitors” to help socially conservative workers depose the liberal-meritocratic ruling class in the US and take control of a newly integrated state and civil society. “What is needed, in short,” he wrote, “is … the peaceful but vigorous overthrow of a corrupt and corrupting liberal ruling class and the creation of a postliberal order in which existing political forms can remain in place, as long as a fundamentally different ethos informs those institutions and the personnel who populate key offices and positions.” As an example of what he had in mind, Deneen pointed to Hungary.

By the time I arrived in Budapest in late 2025, Trump was back in power, with the postliberal darling JD Vance as his vice-president. The new administration was armed with a blueprint for Deneen-style regime change. In 2023, the Heritage Foundation, a conservative US thinktank, had released a report titled Project 2025, “75% of which is being implemented,” as Heritage’s Paul McCarthy, who’d been involved in drafting the chapter on US foreign aid, claimed at a Danube Institute event this February. (The Danube Institute and Heritage had established a formal collaboration in March 2023, a month before the Project 2025 report was released.)

For Applebaum and other post-cold war liberal intellectuals such as the historian Timothy Snyder, the direction of the US right was yet more evidence that “America’s future is Hungary.” According to Snyder, Trump and Vance are “Orbán’s pupils,” and many of their policy decisions “arise in whole or in part from Hungarian sources.”

But in Hungary, a funny thing was happening: Orbán’s own government was no longer popular. Péter Magyar, a former Fidesz insider who had broken with the party, was leading Orbán by double digits in independent polls. One of two things was about to happen: either Fidesz would be out of power for the first time in 16 years, or Orbán would prove himself a genuine dictator. The Applebaum theory of Orbán’s regime was about to be put to the test, and so was postliberalism.

On the national holiday of 15 March, I joined masses of supporters of Magyar’s new Tisza party as they filled the streets all the way up to Heroes’ Square, where Orbán had made his first major political speech in June 1989. Later that year, Orbán raced back to Budapest from his Soros-funded scholarship at Oxford to participate in the unfolding regime change as a representative of Fidesz, founded as the Federation of YoungDemocrats. My Hungarian friends joked that Orbán now looked like one of the portly bureaucrats he had once set out to replace. In the Hungary of 2026, postliberalism was not going as planned. Inflation and house prices had risen faster than anywhere else in the EU. Orbánomics was collapsing. Industrial development had not produced the promised economic growth, and Fidesz had been shaken by a massive pollution scandal at an electric vehicle battery plant. Migration had effectively been stopped, but Chinese guest workers were pouring in to fill the newly created car-industry jobs. After creeping up slightly, the fertility rate seemed to be leveling off.

Corruption across Orbán’s patronage system was so widespread that Hungary was widely being called a mafia state. Fidesz had rewritten the constitution, installed party loyalists in key judicial posts, gerrymandered electoral districts, changed election laws to inflate its parliamentary majority, placed much of higher education under boards packed with party members, and overseen the sale of media companies to regime-friendly oligarchs. The regime had already ruled that women with at least four children would not have to pay income tax for the rest of their lives. In the run-up to the election, they lowered the number of children required to three, and then to two. But that was not going to be enough to win an election, let alone replace the global neoliberal economic order.

View image in fullscreenA branch of the Scruton cafe chain in Budapest. Photograph: Zoltán Csipke/Alamy

Both Trump and Vance had been rumored guests at Cpac Hungary, but neither showed up in the end. The event chair still claimed that the “biggest stars of the sovereigntist right” were all on their way to Budapest. Javier Milei, the president of Argentina, was a last-minute addition. They also advertised an appearance by the Czech prime minister, populist billionaire Andrej Babiš, but he pulled out at the last minute. Maybe they had all been scared off by Orbán’s tanking poll numbers.

Lingering outside the gate on the day of the event itself, I saw Pappin walking toward the VIP entrance. I ducked behind a Cpac banner reading “FEL GYŐZELEMRE!” (“ON TO VICTORY!”).

I wondered how he was taking the polls. A little over a week earlier, I had run into Pappin after an event at which he had joked that the liberal Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, sounded a lot like a “dangerous postliberal” when he prominently declared that the crisis in the rules-based international order was “a rupture, not a transition.” I was grabbing a coffee at a Scruton cafe — part of a chain named after the conservative English philosopher and Orbán ally Roger Scruton. Exposed lightbulbs hung from the ceiling in front of a stenciled cartoon of a hip, young Scruton in a double-breasted suit, with a speech bubble: “The greatest treasure of Hungarians is their national identity.” When I spotted Pappin at the next table, I decided to introduce myself, playing up how much Scruton himself features in my research. We talked about life in Budapest, the city he had elsewhere called “Scrutopia,” and he scoffed at the impression of the Danube milieu put forward by the western press. “You know, all these people show up in Budapest looking for some kind of conservative intellectual utopia,” he said. Though the scene had been influential, he added, “There are only like five of us.”

Five intellectuals close to power can do a lot of damage. Take it from Deneen in Regime Change: “Even if relatively small, an elite cadre skilled at directing and elevating popular resentments, combined with the political power of the many, can bolster populist political prospects as a working governmental and institutional force.” But this wasn’t what was happening in Hungary, at least not anymore. The political power of the many was no longer cooperatiThough Vance had finally flown in to show support, the polls still weren’t moving in Orbán’s favor. On 11 April, the night before the election, I heard Orbán’s voice echoing from the castle during a final torch-lit rally. The next day, the city was tense with nerves. The final turnout, nearly 80%, would set a national record. After the polls closed, I gathered with friends to stream the independent Partizán media feed on YouTube. The first results, released just after 8pm, put Fidesz slightly ahead. Then, at 9.16pm, a new banner crossed the bottom of the screen: Orbán had called Magyar to concede. The convoluted Hungarian election machine had backfired, and Tisza had defeated Fidesz in a landslide. “Looks like the last bastion is gone,” Eva Vlaardingerbroek posted on X. My friends and I rushed to Batthyány Square, where Magyar was set to give his victory speech. The crowd pulsed with expectation; drones circled above us. Techno music drifted across the Danube from a dance party next to the floodlit parliament. We overheard two childhood friends who hadn’t seen each other in years as they embraced and looked deeply into each other’s eyes in wonder. Their reunion was interrupted by someone vomiting on the cobblestones at their feet. It slowly dawned on me that what we were witnessing was not a change of government but a regime change. Throughout the campaign, Magyar had used the Hungarian term rendszerváltás, literally “system change,” once reserved for talking about the democratic transition from communism in 1989, and now, somehow, Tisza had made it happen. If Pilkington is right that post-cold war liberals don’t have a good understanding of why their world is falling apart, neither did the postliberals after Magyar’s win. For them, the fact that Orbán had conceded gracefully was proof that he had always been committed to democracy—and that liberal critics such as Applebaum and Snyder had misunderstood him all along. On election night, Rod Dreher responded to news that Orbán had conceded with a sarcastic post on X: “But … but … but, I was told by so many experts and journalists in the west that this would never happen, that Orbán is a fascist dictator who would never surrender power!” It’s true that Applebaum’s work often relied on a reductive binary between democracy and autocracy that, in this case, had obscured the fact that democratic change was still very much possible in Hungary. But the postliberals were trapped in their own binaries, too: because Orbán wasn’t a dictator, their logic went, Hungary must have ultimately been a democracy. This allowed them to dismiss all the ways Fidesz had held on to power by changing election laws, packing the judiciary, attacking civil society and higher education, and consolidating control over the media. There was one thing that Applebaum and the postliberals could agree on after the election: the demise of the so-called Hungarian model. Applebaum’s post-election column marked the passing of one of her own stock narratives. Orbán’s Hungary would no longer serve, she wrote, “as a model for Americans or Europeans who want to capture their own states, or take apart their own checks and balances, or impose their own illiberal ideologies on people who don’t accept them.” In his own postmortem, Dreher reached a similar conclusion: “As a model for Maga and other nationalist conservatives in the west, Hungary is over.” But it would be a mistake to think that Orbán’s defeat, or the potential closure of state-supported institutions such as the Danube Institute, means the end of postliberalism. “We are all postliberals now,” Pilkington argued on Postliberal Order, the Substack newsletter he shares with Deneen, Pappin and CC Pecknold, a historian of theology. As he pointed out, Magyar shared many of Orbán’s views on core issues. “From the standpoint of domestic politics, Magyar effectively ran on Fi“Fidesz’s own platform,” Pilkington argued in a different post-election column, “promising to keep migration low, maintain Hungarian cultural nationalism, and preserve the generous family support system that Fidesz built.” But Pilkington wasn’t just making a narrow political point. Postliberalism as an intellectual project was not tied to the fate of any particular political party. “No doubt, Fidesz has been an incubator of alternative thinking in transatlantic conservatism, but these ideas are in the air and are unlikely to go away any time soon.”

View image in fullscreen. Viktor Orbán awards Roger Scruton the Middle Cross of the Hungarian Order of Merit at the Hungarian embassy in London in 2019. Photograph: Zsolt Szigetváry/EPA

In the narrow, descriptive sense, it’s true that there is no going back to the liberalism of the brief post-Cold War interlude, roughly 1989–2015. Still, postliberals are terrible at predicting what comes next. On X, Pilkington posts regular prophecies of Western civilizational catastrophe with the swagger of a former finance guy. “There is an old phrase in investment,” he writes in The Collapse of Global Liberalism, “it is better to be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons.”

But if Pilkington is right about our new postliberal era, it is for the wrong reasons. Clearly, the world of post-Cold War liberalism is over. But the idea that the postliberal programme can answer all the challenges brought on by its collapse is a farce. As Hungary has shown, postliberal policies don’t produce a life good enough to win over voters. In the end, Hungary was a false model for our authoritarian future. Now the model we have to worry about is made in the US.

In all my time in Hungary, there was one person I had never seen at the Danube Institute or at any of the other events I attended: Rod Dreher, supposedly a mainstay of the Budapest scene. After a few failed attempts, we finally met on a spring afternoon in early May, the day before Magyar was sworn in as prime minister. Over rosé spritzes and nicotine pouches, I made my confession to Dreher: I told him I had been attending events at the Danube Institute, about all the wild conversations I had overheard, and about how I was just trying to understand what attracted American intellectuals to the dissident right. We both agreed that Hungary was a strange place to look for lessons about the US. But here we both were.

“I was never part of any scene here, although I kind of thought I would be,” he told me. Like Pappin, he noted that only a handful of conservative anglophone intellectuals lived in Budapest; most of their companions were only there temporarily, to see what it was like when their side was in power. But the Scruton cafés were “phoney,” more Ikea than English country house. The Danube Institute, though it was never the Orbánist propaganda factory it was rumoured to be, was overseen by overly cautious Hungarian managers, he said, who had kept it from becoming a truly stimulating intellectual environment. “There was a scene,” he admitted, “but it was very superficial.”

How liberalism became ‘the god that failed’ in eastern Europe
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And now the Budapest scene, however superficial, was coming to an end. Over the next few months, the new Tisza-led parliament would pass a series of laws and constitutional amendments aimed at dismantling the Fidesz party’s system of funding thinktanks and other intellectual institutions. At the end of July, Pappin would resign from the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, and the MCC foundation would be formally dissolved. Magyar had already promised not only to end government funding of the organisation that runs Cpac Hungary, but to investigate the former funding through the newly created National Asset Recovery and Protection Office. As Dreher would later put it: “The unsettling atmosphere of vengeance that has overtaken Hungary since P“If Péter Magyar becomes prime minister, it likely means the end of the Danube Institute.” (The Danube Institute did not respond to requests for comment.) I asked Dreher what he would do next. He told me he had briefly considered moving to Vienna, but then he had had a change of heart. It was time to give up the good life in central Europe and return to the American South. My own temporary resident permit was about to expire. As the sun set behind Károlyi-kert, one of the oldest gardens in Budapest, Dreher and I downed our last rosé spritzes. Postliberalism was finally coming home, and so were we. Listen to our podcasts here and sign up to the long read weekly email here.

Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs The Last Bastion Has Fallen The US Right and Orbáns Hungary

1 What does the last bastion has fallen mean here
Its a phrase suggesting that Hungary under Viktor Orbán was seen as the last big successful model of a certain kind of rightwing politics and that this model has now collapsed

2 Who is Viktor Orbán
Hes the Prime Minister of Hungary in power since 2010 known for building a system often called illiberal democracy

3 Why did the American right idolize Orbáns Hungary
Because Orbán showed you could win elections repeatedly while weakening courts reshaping media restricting migration and promoting traditional values all within the EU and NATO Conservatives saw it as a playbook

4 What actually happened did Orbán fall
The articles premise is that Orbán lost an election or his grip on power Fallen here means his political dominance was broken not that Hungary collapsed

5 What is illiberal democracy
A system with elections but weakened checks and balances limited judicial independence friendly media ownership and constrained opposition Its democratic in form but not in liberal substance

6 Why does this matter to American conservatives
Many US rightwing figures including CPAC Tucker Carlson and various think tanks pointed to Hungary as proof their agenda could succeed If Orbán loses that argument loses its main example

7 What did Americans actually admire about Hungary
Strict immigration policy antiLGBTQ laws media consolidation friendly to the government a rewritten constitution and repeated electoral wins

8 What were the common criticisms of the Orbán model
Erosion of press freedom gerrymandering capture of courts corruption among allies and tension with EU partners Critics said it was a recipe for authoritarian drift

9 Can the US right recover now
They can but theyll need a new model or a revised argument The ideas wont disappear but the Hungary proves it works talking point is much weaker

10 Whats the strongest counterargument to recovery
That Orbáns loss shows the model isnt durable voters eventually punish overreach economic stagnation or