Sweden votes on Sunday in a very close election. If the country’s right-wing parties can win a majority, the far right could enter government for the first time.
Opinion polls show the centre-left opposition alliance ahead, with Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats the favourite to become prime minister again after four years in opposition. But her bloc’s lead has narrowed a lot in the final days of the campaign.
View image in fullscreenMagdalena Andersson, the leader of the Social Democrats. Photograph: Simon Johnson/Reuters
In 2022, the current prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, leader of the centre-right Moderates, broke a long-standing taboo by making a deal with the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD) so that his minority coalition could form a government.
That agreement gave the SD outsized influence over government policy, especially on crime and immigration. Kristersson has now gone further, promising ministerial posts for the SD if he is returned to power.
The election comes days after Germany’s nativist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) took first place in key state elections, and as Marine Le Pen leads the polls for next year’s presidential vote in France.
Legal and civil rights experts have warned that such a result could further undermine Sweden’s long-held reputation as a global champion of human rights, which has already declined significantly under the current government.
“What we have seen in the past four years is huge changes when it comes to policies on crime and immigration,” said John Stauffer, legal director at Civil Rights Defenders.
View image in fullscreenSweden’s prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, talks to members of the media after a Moderate party rally. Photograph: Denis Balibouse/Reuters
“That is also the concern moving forward into the next mandate period: that this government will continue with a clear aim to further decrease the number of people coming to Sweden, the number of people who can get protection, and also that as many people as possible with migrant backgrounds leave Sweden – either by force or voluntarily.”
SD’s manifesto includes pledges to introduce “anti-Swedish sentiment in legislation on incitement against ethnic groups”, revoke permanent resident permits and further cut immigration.
One of its slogans is a promise to “make Sweden Sweden again”.
Despite recent changes – including the deportation of teenagers, lowering the age of criminal responsibility and sending 14-year-olds to adult prisons – many voters and politicians continued to see Sweden as a “champion of human rights and a champion of the rules-based world order where human rights is an important part”, Stauffer said.
“But it is quite clear that the Sweden Democrats do not have that ambition. They don’t see Sweden as an important player on these issues on human rights. So there will be less focus on this and Sweden contributing to developing the judicial framework around human rights.”
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He added: “It’s a fair guess that the negative trend will continue with SD in government, the view from abroad of Sweden will continue to deteriorate, less and less will be seen as a champion of human rights, but as any other country maybe. For some time Sweden has been seen as the exception.”
In an attempt to win back voters, Andersson’s Social Democrats have also moved to the right on crime, immigration and integration, meaning that a win for the left was unlikely to mean a reform of current hardline policies, said Stauffer.
“With a Social Democrats-led government, many of the things we see as problematic are not going to be rolled back. But maybe negative development will not continue in the same way,” he said.
With polls so tight and record early voting expected, the performance of smaller parties could prove critical.
View image in fullscreenThe Green party spokesperson, AmandaOn Thursday, Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Åkesson and Lind took part in an election debate in Stockholm. Photograph: Anders Wiklund/EPA
The Liberals are small but are part of the governing coalition. Their leader, Simona Mohamsson, has caused controversy by getting close to the Sweden Democrats’ leader, Jimmie Åkesson, in recent months. The Liberals could be key to whether the right can form a coalition. On the left, turnout for the Centre party could also matter.
Meanwhile, the Left party (Vänsterpartiet) has gained some ground in the polls and hopes this signals a surge. In Stockholm municipality especially, it is catching up with the Moderates and hopes to become the second-largest party.
Bo Petersson, a political science professor at Malmö University, said the Sweden Democrats had already won the immigration argument among mainstream Swedish parties. He argued the election could test whether the far-right party still appeals to Swedish voters. “The mainstream parties have adopted restrictive immigration policies, so there isn’t much left for the Sweden Democrats to say, ‘We are unique and stand for this,'” he said. “They have become a very clear part of the establishment.”
Fredrik Furtenbach, a senior political correspondent for Sweden’s public broadcaster Sveriges Radio, said that if the right-wing parties win, the Sweden Democrats would likely get several ministerial posts, which would be a “big breakthrough for them.”
If the right-wing coalition loses, he expects the centre-right parties to debate after the election whether they “allowed the Sweden Democrats to get too close.”
The main issues for voters are healthcare, law and order, immigration, and Sweden’s economy.
After heated televised debates between the leaders, the last of which was on Friday night, election results are expected on Sunday night. But forming a government could take weeks or even months of talks.
The latest polls show an extremely tight race. A Dagens Nyheter/Ipsos poll on Friday showed just 0.3 percentage points between the left and right blocs, which would give Andersson’s left-leaning side 175 seats and Kristersson’s right-leaning side 174.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of frequently asked questions about Swedens tight election and the potential influence of the far right
What happened in Swedens recent election
The election was extremely close A bloc of four rightwing parties won a narrow majority in parliament while the leftwing bloc lost by just a few seats The farright party the Sweden Democrats became the secondlargest party and will now have significant influence over the government
Who are the Sweden Democrats
They are a rightwing populist party with roots in neoNazi and white nationalist movements They focus on strict immigration limits law and order and reducing the power of the European Union They have tried to clean up their image in recent years but still face accusations of racism and extremism
Why is this election such a big deal
For the first time a farright party will directly influence Swedens government Sweden has a long history of liberal immigration policies and consensus politics This shift could change the countrys direction on immigration crime and its role in the EU
What does far right mean in this context
In Sweden far right refers to parties that are nationalist antiimmigration and often skeptical of multiculturalism The Sweden Democrats are the main farright party They are not as extreme as some other European farright parties but they are still outside the traditional mainstream
Did the Sweden Democrats win the election
No They came in second place But because the rightwing bloc won a majority the Sweden Democrats now hold the balance of power They will not be in the cabinet but they will support the government in parliament and push their policies
What do the Sweden Democrats want
They want to drastically cut immigration deport more criminals with foreign backgrounds reduce foreign aid and give more power back to Sweden from the EU They also want tougher sentences for crimes and more funding for police
Why did people vote for the far right
Many voters are worried about immigration gang violence and the cost of living The Sweden Democrats have focused on these issues for years Some voters feel that mainstream parties ignored their concerns Others are frustrated with high energy prices and inflation
What problems could this cause
It could make Swedens politics more unstable The Sweden Democrats are not in the government but they can threaten to bring it down if they dont get what they want It could
