A study suggests that by this spring, the total number of Russian and Ukrainian troops killed, wounded, or missing in the nearly four-year war could reach 2 million, as Moscow’s invasion continues unabated.
A report from the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates that Russia has suffered about 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 deaths, while close to 600,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed, wounded, or gone missing.
Since Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, neither side has publicly released comprehensive casualty figures, treating the scale of losses as a state secret. The Kremlin dismissed the CSIS report on Wednesday as “not credible,” stating that only Russia’s defense ministry is authorized to release such figures.
The CSIS estimates were based on interviews with Western and Ukrainian officials, along with data collected by the independent Russian outlet Mediazona and the BBC Russian Service.
By historical standards, the losses are staggering. The think tank noted that Russian battlefield deaths in Ukraine are more than 17 times greater than Soviet losses in Afghanistan during the 1980s, 11 times higher than during Russia’s two Chechen wars, and over five times greater than all Russian and Soviet wars combined since World War II.
The report indicates that Russian casualties exceed Ukrainian losses by a ratio of roughly 2.5:1 or 2:1. However, the figures also present a grim outlook for Ukraine, which has a much smaller population and far more limited capacity to sustain prolonged losses and mobilize troops.
To replenish its forces, Moscow has offered generous pay and expanded benefits for new recruits. Regional authorities provide enlistment bonuses that can reach tens of thousands of dollars in some cases. The Kremlin has also recruited thousands of men from Asia, South America, and Africa, many lured by misleading promises or subjected to pressure.
Ukraine, meanwhile, has struggled to mobilize enough troops to reinforce depleted units. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has resisted calls to lower the mobilization age below 25, a move that would be highly unpopular domestically.
Despite the heavy casualties on both sides, Russia’s territorial gains have been minimal. CSIS found that since 2024, Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of just 15 to 70 meters per day during their most significant offensives—”slower than almost any major offensive campaign in modern warfare.”
While Moscow made some advances late last year in eastern Ukraine and near the Dnipropetrovsk region, progress has since slowed to a crawl due to winter conditions and fierce Ukrainian resistance.
According to data from the Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState, Russian forces captured 152 square kilometers (58 square miles) of Ukrainian territory between January 1 and 25, marking the slowest rate of advance since March of last year.
Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. held peace talks in Abu Dhabi last weekend—the first such meeting since Russia’s full-scale invasion—but there was no sign of a breakthrough, as the Kremlin continues to insist on its maximalist territorial demands.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about the reported estimate of nearly 2 million military casualties in the RussiaUkraine war structured from beginner to more advanced questions
Basic Understanding Definitions
Q1 Is this number of 2 million killed and wounded confirmed
A No it is an estimate from a single study Exact numbers are extremely difficult to verify during an active war as both sides treat casualty figures as sensitive information
Q2 What does military casualties mean in this context
A In military terms casualties includes personnel who are killed in action wounded missing or captured This estimate of nearly 2 million refers specifically to killed and wounded soldiers from both the Russian and Ukrainian armed forces combined
Q3 Does this 2 million number include civilian deaths
A No this specific estimate is for military personnel only Civilian casualties are tracked separately and are also in the tens of thousands according to UN reports
Q4 Which side has suffered more losses
A Most independent analyses suggest Russian forces have sustained significantly higher casualties However precise ratios vary between sources and Ukraine also faces profound losses relative to its smaller population and military
Context and Impact
Q5 How does this scale compare to other modern wars
A The scale is very high for a 21stcentury conflict For comparison it is estimated that over 20000 Russian soldiers were killed in the 10year SovietAfghan War The current war has reached that level of loss in a much shorter time indicating its exceptional intensity
Q6 Why is it so hard to get accurate numbers
A Reasons include wartime disinformation tactical secrecy the chaos of the battlefield and the fact that both countries have incentives to minimize their own losses and maximize estimates of the enemys
Q7 What are the main sources for these estimates
A Analysts use a combination of
Opensource intelligence Counting from satellite imagery social media videos and official but localized reports
Government and military leaks
Statistical modeling based on equipment losses terrain gainedlost and historical combat ratios
