A new survey suggests that European trust in a US “security guarantee” has hit an all-time low. Across 15 countries, only one in ten people see the US as an ally, and majorities in every country doubt it would help them if they were attacked.
The survey, released Wednesday by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank ahead of key G7 and NATO summits in France and Turkey over the coming weeks, reveals “deep European distrust in the US,” according to the authors.
It also shows that while many Europeans believe relations with Washington will improve once Donald Trump leaves office, they are increasingly ready to protect themselves against US unreliability by strengthening Europe’s own defenses in the meantime.
The report says that the US president’s actions in the Middle East, threats against Greenland, plans to withdraw troops from European bases, and skepticism about NATO’s future have also driven a growing pragmatism in Europe.
“Across the continent, there is clear support for reducing dependence on Washington,” said Jana Kobzová, a co-author and senior policy fellow at ECFR. “Europeans are increasingly open to higher defense spending and, importantly, show a striking level of confidence that neighboring countries would come to their aid in a crisis.”
Paweł Zerka, Kobzová’s co-author and also a senior policy fellow at ECFR, said that clear public demand for greater self-reliance and the need to hedge against US defense guarantees have “created a window for Europe’s leaders to go further and faster” on security.
The survey, based on polling conducted in May in Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK, found that an average of just 11% of respondents across all countries now view the US as an ally “sharing our interests and values.”
That compares with 16% six months ago and 22% in November 2024. The most common view was that the US is now a “necessary partner,” although 13% of Europeans said they consider the US a rival and 12% a direct adversary.
Majorities in every country no longer feel confident that the US would come to their aid if attacked. Except in Bulgaria, most people—including in countries with large far-right parties like France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Sweden—believe that “at least some European countries” would help them in a similar situation.
The survey found that Europeans are now, on average, 4% more likely to support higher national defense spending than last year, with Italy being the only country where a clear majority remains opposed.
On average, 47% of respondents backed the idea of collective EU borrowing to finance greater defense spending, with 35% opposed. Support was strongest in Portugal (59%), Denmark (56%), the Netherlands (55%), and Spain.
In almost every country polled, most respondents said their country should reduce its strategic dependence on US military equipment, with “buy European” supporters most numerous in Denmark (75%), the Netherlands (72%), Sweden (70%), Portugal (69%), France (66%), Switzerland (64%), the UK and Spain (both 62%).
However, there was notably less support for cutting domestic public spending to pay for higher national defense budgets, with opposition strongest in Italy (63%), Austria (59%), Germany (56%), Spain (54%), and Denmark (52%).
There was also little backing (29%) for replacing NATO with a new EU-only defense body. The dominant view in almost every country except Bulgaria was that US-European relations would “probably get better” once Trump leaves—a view held by 60% or more in France, Spain, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden.
Despite rising energy costs, 44% of Europeans said it would be a “rather bad” or “very bad” idea to resume importing oil and gas from Russia.
However, Ukraine’s ambition to join the EU continues to divide European opinion.In countries like Hungary, Bulgaria, Austria, Germany, and even Estonia—one of Kyiv’s strongest supporters—more people are against letting Ukraine join “in the current situation” than are in favor of it.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on the survey finding that Only one in 10 Europeans now see the US as an ally
BeginnerLevel Questions
Q What does the survey mean by ally
A An ally is a country that you can count on for support especially in times of conflict or crisis It implies a trusted partnership not just a trading relationship
Q Is this a real survey Who did it
A Yes its a real survey It was conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations a think tank that studies European politics and foreign policy
Q What does one in 10 actually mean
A It means that if you asked 100 random Europeans only about 10 of them would say they see the United States as a reliable partner or ally The other 90 would see the US as a competitor a rival or just a necessary partner
Q Does this mean Europeans hate America
A Not necessarily It means they no longer trust the US as a dependable longterm ally Many Europeans still like American culture and people but they dont trust the US governments decisions
IntermediateLevel Questions
Q Why has this number dropped so much
A The main reasons include disagreements over trade tariffs the US pulling out of international agreements and perceived instability in US foreign policy The war in Ukraine has also highlighted different priorities between the US and Europe
Q If not an ally what do Europeans see the US as
A Most see the US as a necessary partner or a rival A necessary partner means you have to work with them on some things but you dont fully trust them A rival means you compete with them for influence or economic power
Q Does this survey include the UK
A Yes it includes all EU countries plus the UK Interestingly British views are often slightly more positive towards the US than the European average but still far lower than in the past
Q Is this just about Donald Trump or a longer trend
