In the first month of the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran, the world’s 100 largest oil and gas companies earned over $30 million per hour in windfall profits, according to an exclusive analysis for the Guardian. Major beneficiaries like Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, and ExxonMobil—key opponents of climate action—continue to thrive.
The conflict drove oil prices to an average of $100 per barrel in March, generating an estimated $23 billion in war-related windfall profits for these companies that month. With oil and gas supplies expected to take months to return to pre-war levels, the companies could make $234 billion by year-end if prices remain at $100 on average. The analysis is based on data from Rystad Energy, reviewed by Global Witness.
These excess profits come at the expense of ordinary people, who face higher costs for fuel and home energy, and businesses dealing with increased energy bills. Many countries, including Australia, South Africa, Italy, Brazil, and Zambia, have cut fuel taxes to help consumers, reducing public revenue for essential services.
Calls are growing for windfall taxes on oil and gas companies’ war profits. The European Commission is considering a proposal from finance ministers in Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Austria, who argue that those profiting from war should help ease the public’s burden. In an April 4 letter, the ministers stated such taxes could fund temporary consumer relief and curb inflation without straining public budgets. The EU’s fossil fuel costs have risen by €22 billion since the war began.
Aramco is the biggest winner, projected to earn $25.5 billion in war profits in 2026 if oil averages $100 per barrel. This is on top of its already massive daily profits of $250 million between 2016 and 2023. Saudi Arabia has long led efforts to obstruct international climate action.
Three Russian companies—Gazprom, Rosneft, and Lukoil—are estimated to gain $23.9 billion in war profits by year-end. The conflict has also boosted Vladimir Putin’s resources for the war in Ukraine, with Russia’s daily oil export revenue reaching $840 million in March, a 50% increase from February.
ExxonMobil, with a history of climate change denial, could see $11 billion in windfall war profits in 2026 if prices hold. Shell may gain $6.8 billion. Both companies’ market values have surged since the war began, with ExxonMobil up $118 billion and Shell up $34 billion.
Chevron is on track for $9.2 billion in windfall profits from the war, while its CEO, Mike Wirth, sold $104 million in company shares between January and March.
The war’s impact on energy markets is expected to be profound. Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, called it the largest shock ever to global energy markets. In March, UN climate chief Simon Stiell warned that fossil fuel dependence undermines national security and increases costs, advocating for renewable energy as a stable alternative immune to geopolitical risks.For decades, the oil and gas industry has been immensely profitable for petrostates and shareholders. Over the last fifty years, the sector has averaged $1 trillion in pure profit annually, with even higher earnings during crises like 2022, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The fossil fuel industry also receives substantial support, with explicit subsidies reaching $1.3 trillion in 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Patrick Galey, head of news investigations at Global Witness, commented, “Global crises continue to result in record profits for major oil companies, while ordinary people bear the cost. Until governments break their reliance on fossil fuels, our spending power will remain at the mercy of volatile leaders.”
Jess Ralston, head of energy at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, added, “This oil and gas crisis once again highlights the price of our dependence on unstable fossil fuels. Investing in net-zero technologies is not only the path to lasting energy security but also the only way to restore balance to our climate. Proposals to increase fossil fuel production or retreat from net-zero commitments amid this crisis would only weaken our energy security and heighten our vulnerability to damaging climate impacts.”
Beth Walker, an energy policy expert at the E3G think tank, stated, “Governments should use taxes on windfall profits to speed up the shift to green energy, rather than deepening our dependence on fossil fuels.”
Saudi Aramco, Shell, and TotalEnergies declined to comment, while ExxonMobil, Chevron, Gazprom, Petrobras, and ADNOC did not respond to requests.
The estimated war profits were calculated using Rystad Energy’s UCube database, which combines global field-by-field data, news, and intelligence, accounting for oil and gas demand to project supply from each field.
Windfall war profits were determined by comparing the free cash flow from oil and gas production in March, when oil averaged $100 a barrel, to the $70 price before the Iran war. This data reflects estimated upstream profit after taxes, royalties, and capital and operating expenses.
Countries expanding their renewable energy capacity are partially protected from price hikes and war profits. For example, wind and solar power in the UK avoided £1 billion in gas imports in March alone. From 2010 to 2025, wind power is estimated to have saved consumers around £100 billion.
Maria Pastukhova, energy transition programme leader at E3G, noted that as long as homes, transport, and industry rely on oil and gas, the UK and other fossil fuel importers remain vulnerable to global price shocks driven by conflict, supply chokepoints, and market volatility. “It doesn’t matter whether the fuel comes from the North Sea or overseas; the UK’s exposure remains,” she said. “Increasing UK fossil fuel production is therefore a weak response to energy insecurity.”
A UK government spokesperson responded, “The government is committed to protecting people during this crisis. We are accelerating the transition to clean, homegrown energy to safeguard the British public and reduce bills for good. We have also taken steps to prevent unfair practices like price-gouging, support those using heating oil, and ensure households and businesses receive fair pricing on their bills.”
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Big Oil Profits and the War
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does this headline even mean
It means that a recent analysis calculated that major oil and gas companies are collectively earning an estimated 30 million more in profit every single hour than they were before the war in Ukraine and that this extra money is ultimately coming from higher prices paid by consumers
2 How can a war make oil companies so much more money
The war disrupted global energy markets Sanctions reduced supply from Russia and market uncertainty caused the global price of oil and gas to spike Because these companies sell oil and gas they make much more money when prices are high even if their costs dont increase at the same rate
3 Is this extra 30 million per hour all profit
The analysis refers to this as windfall profits Its the extra money they are making compared to a previous period largely due to the exceptional circumstances of the wardriven price surge not necessarily from increased efficiency or production
4 Isnt it just normal for companies to make money when prices go up
While companies benefit from market changes the scale and speed of these profitstied directly to a geopolitical crisis causing consumer hardshiphave led many to call them windfall or excess profits arguing they go far beyond normal business cycles
5 What are windfall profits
Windfall profits are large unexpected gains that a company receives primarily due to external events it did not create rather than from its own business strategy or innovation
Advanced Practical Questions
6 How was this 30 million per hour figure calculated
Analysts typically take the reported profits of the largest oil companies compare them to a prewar baseline and divide the difference by the number of hours in the period studied Its an estimate to illustrate the staggering scale
7 If the companies are making so much why are gas prices still high
Oil prices are set on a global market Companies generally sell their oil at the current global price High profits indicate the gap between their cost to produce and the selling price is very wide They have
