After the 2022 Swedish general election, the leaders of the two largest Swedish parties made risky decisions. Jimmie Åkesson, leader of the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD), chose to support the right-wing minority government of Moderate Party Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, while Magdalena Andersson, leader of the Social Democrats, decided to copy the “Danish model” in an attempt to regain power. In both cases, the strategy led to electoral loss but political success.
After Sunday’s general election, the Social Democrats (often called S or Sap), like their Danish counterparts, will probably lead the new government despite an electoral defeat, losing about 2% — their worst result since 1908. The party’s return to power is purely a result of Swedish bloc politics and the victories of its likely coalition partners: the Left Party (V), the Green Party, and the Center Party (C), which increased their support by 1.5%, 1.7%, and 0.4% respectively. Together, this left bloc has a majority of just three seats in the new parliament. So while Andersson will probably return to power, she is also in a very vulnerable position.
While the three left-wing parties agree on many socioeconomic issues, particularly undoing some of the worst right-wing policies of recent years and investing more in the public sector, they hold very different views on issues like crime and immigration. If Andersson continues to demand strict immigration rules and link crime to immigration, this could cause significant tensions in her coalition, similar to those her Danish counterpart, Mette Frederiksen, faced in her first government.
At the same time, the small Center Party, the least left-wing of the left bloc, has ruled out a formal coalition with the “radical” Left Party and will want to protect the market from too much state intervention. This will create further tensions within the left bloc in a likely minority government. Given that format and the inevitable internal tensions, a majority of just three seats would require almost unrealistic levels of discipline for the minority government to last a full term.
On the other side of the political spectrum, the Sweden Democrats had their first loss in a national parliamentary election. Still, there is little reason to assume Åkesson will face a backlash. First, he was the only leader who mattered to a majority of his party’s voters. Second, his support strategy worked: the Sweden Democrats are now fully normalized within the right bloc, as Moderate Party (M) leader Kristersson had already announced before the election that the Sweden Democrats would be part of a future right-wing government. Third, the party’s nativism is now shared by all the major parties, albeit in milder form, from the Moderates on the right to the Social Democrats on the left.
We should also not forget that the 2022 election campaign offered the perfect political context for the Sweden Democrats, since it was dominated by two themes: immigration and the acceptance of the Sweden Democrats. As we know from other elections (such as in the Netherlands in 2023), when opposition to immigration and acceptance of the far right dominate the political agenda, the far right wins big. This time, those topics were still there, but they did not dominate the campaign — in fact, no single issue did. On top of that, the Sweden Democrats were linked to some scandals close to the election, which may have further decreased support for the party. Still, it held on to 78% of its 2022 voters, more than the center-right Moderates (59%) and center-left Social Democrats (73%).
While Andersson may try to convince her party, and herself, that the “Danish model” has worked, she should take a better look at her small neighbor to the west. The Danish Social Democratic Party has hit historic lows in national and local elections (notably in the capital, Copenhagen). And althoughDenmark’s Frederiksen is such a convincing nativist that even far-right leaders in other countries praise her as a model, yet the far right is barely less popular than before—just more divided. Interestingly, while Andersson thanked the youth and student wings for their hard work in her election-night speech, the Social Democrats did much worse among first-time voters than among the electorate as a whole (21% versus 28%). By contrast, the Left and the Greens performed much better among young people. This mirrors a trend across Europe: young voters prefer openly left-wing parties over center-left ones. However, the Social Democrats were the most popular among Swedes with non-European roots, winning no less than 38% of support from this growing part of the electorate. Clearly, this group is also not looking for more nativist policies and rhetoric. In short, even if the Social Democrats have regained power thanks to the “Danish model”—which is debatable in itself—this same strategy will pose a risk to the new coalition and to the party’s electoral future. Instead of continuing to be a “moderate” or “sensible” alternative to the Moderates, Andersson should fully commit to a progressive political agenda, both on socioeconomic and sociocultural issues. That way, she not only has a better chance of holding her coalition together but might also make her party attractive to new and younger voters again.
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Cas Mudde is the Stanley Wade Shelton UGAF professor of international affairs at the University of Georgia and author of The Far Right Today.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on Cas Muddes article about the state of Swedens far right
Beginner Questions
Q What is this article about
A Its about how Swedens farright party the Sweden Democrats did worse than expected in the 2022 election but they are still a powerful force in Swedish politics
Q Who are the Sweden Democrats
A They are a rightwing populist party in Sweden They are known for their strong antiimmigration views and have roots in the neoNazi movement
Q What does far right mean
A Its a term for political groups that are extremely conservative and often nationalist They usually want to limit immigration and are skeptical of global organizations like the European Union
Q What was the main result of the Swedish election
A A rightwing bloc won a slim majority This bloc includes the Moderate Party the Christian Democrats the Liberals and the Sweden Democrats The Sweden Democrats didnt join the government but they are supporting it in parliament
Q Why does the article say the far right was weakened
A Because the Sweden Democrats got fewer votes than many polls predicted They were hoping to become the biggest party in the rightwing bloc but they came in second behind the Moderate Party
Q Why does it say they are not defeated
A Even though they lost some support they are still the secondlargest party in Sweden They now have a huge influence over the governments policies especially on immigration and crime
Advanced Questions
Q What is the cordon sanitaire and how does it relate to Sweden
A A cordon sanitaire is a political strategy where mainstream parties refuse to work or cooperate with a farright party In Sweden this cordon around the Sweden Democrats has now completely broken down The other rightwing parties have agreed to work with them giving the far right real political power
Q What does Cas Mudde mean by the normalization of the far right
