Nathalie, a market trader in her 40s, woke early to prepare a pan of paella rice. She was spooning it into tubs at a market in southern Marseille last week when a group of far-right canvassers approached, promising cleaner and safer streets if she voted for them in the local elections.
“Our cash tin was stolen right here at Christmas time,” Nathalie said. “I’ve had a bag stolen too. It tends to happen at the end of the day, around 7 p.m. I worry for the elderly grandmas. I had a necklace ripped off me in the city centre once.”
Nathalie said she usually voted for the traditional right but felt Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) was now a good choice. “We’ve never tried them, so now we can give them a chance. I hope they can do something on security,” she said.
Suzanne, 80, a retired pharmacist doing her shopping in a southern neighbourhood of the Mediterranean port city, said she had also spent a lifetime supporting the conservative parties of Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, but, like many of her affluent neighbours, was shifting to the far right. “I’ve never voted RN before, but I’m going to try it,” she said. “They are more energetic and efficient than the others.”
On Sunday, France will vote in the first round of local elections seen as a test of the political temperature ahead of next year’s crucial presidential election. With Emmanuel Macron’s two terms in office coming to an end, it is uncertain who will lead Europe’s second-largest economy.
With its multicultural history of immigration and 5 million tourists a year, Marseille, France’s second city, has become a key focus of the campaign after its left-wing mayor, Benoît Payan, warned the far right was polling so high it could take city hall.
“If Marseille falls into the RN’s hands, it would be an earthquake for France,” said Payan, whose Printemps Marseillais group, a left-wing coalition including Socialists and Greens, won the city in 2020 after 25 years of the traditional right.
“Victory is possible,” said Jordan Bardella, the RN party head and potential 2027 presidential candidate, as he toured Marseille last week.
The RN has focused on municipal policing and security in the face of Marseille’s deadly drug-trafficking gangs, which the far-right has likened to a South American-style mini narco-state.
“This is about bringing back order,” said Franck Allisio, the RN’s mayoral candidate, as he canvassed in Marseille’s southern 9th arrondissement.
Allisio, 45, a member of parliament for a constituency west of Marseille, was a ministerial adviser on the traditional right during Sarkozy’s presidency, before joining Le Pen in 2015. His suggestions for Marseille include a special timed-access pass to local beaches for families and older people, designed to keep out “delinquents … listening to loud music and smoking joints.”
That the RN is the main opposition challenger in Marseille for the March vote is significant because French local elections – particularly in large cities – are not typically the far right’s strength.
For the past 20 years, the biggest city run by the RN has been Perpignan, near the Spanish border, with a population of 121,000. Winning Marseille, with a population of almost 900,000, would be hailed by the party as a step toward taking the French presidency next year.
But Marseille – unlike Paris – has been building a sizeable far-right vote for many years. In the 2024 snap general…In the recent election, the National Rally (RN) and its far-right allies tripled their number of seats in Marseille, securing three of the city’s seven parliamentary positions. Marseille continues to be one of France’s most segregated cities, marked by a significant income gap between its affluent neighborhoods and the low-income communities living in high-rise estates or deteriorating city-center buildings. Over a quarter of Marseille’s residents live below the poverty line, and more than 13% of main residences are classified as slums.
Politicians across the spectrum are framing the tight mayoral race as a battle for Marseille’s identity. Historically, the city has welcomed immigrants from North Africa, Italy, Armenia, and Comoros, and it is home to a large Muslim community and one of Europe’s largest urban Jewish populations.
The left accuses the RN of being an anti-immigration party that is racist and xenophobic, arguing that its values are at odds with the city’s character. In a symbolic move, the left-wing city hall recently renamed a boulevard in honor of Ibrahim Ali, a 17-year-old high school student from Marseille who was shot and killed in 1995 by an activist putting up posters for Jean-Marie Le Pen’s Front National (now the RN) while on his way home from a rap rehearsal.
In northern Marseille, the densely populated 13th and 14th arrondissements consist of a mix of historic village-style neighborhoods and high-rise housing estates. Like Paris, Marseille has both a city mayor and several district mayors. In this area, the far-right Stéphane Ravier won the district mayor position for the Front National in 2014 and held it until 2017. He was convicted on appeal this year for an illegal conflict of interest after hiring his son to work in the mayor’s office and is now appealing to France’s highest court. His niece, Sandrine D’Angio, who succeeded him and was also convicted of favoritism in office, denies the charges and is appealing the verdict. She is currently the RN’s local candidate.
“The RN already ran this sector of Marseille—daily life didn’t get better; on the contrary, it got worse,” said Tina Biard-Sansonetti, the Printemps Marseillais candidate for district mayor in the 13th and 14th arrondissements.
Agnès, a local childminder and centrist voter, remarked, “There’s a feeling of disgust towards all politicians in general that could affect voter turnout.”
Mohamed Arouel, a 21-year-old law student who grew up in the area and is running as a councillor for Printemps Marseillais, stated, “The RN’s values are the absolute antithesis of this very mixed neighborhood.” He emphasized the importance of younger voters not abstaining.
The Marseille mayoral race reflects broader issues across France, particularly regarding access to public services. Five years ago, President Macron announced a €5 billion investment plan for Marseille to address service gaps, including dangerously dilapidated school buildings, patchy public transport, and insufficient police and justice resources to combat drug crime. Printemps Marseillais claims that 27 schools have been built or fully renovated, and the municipal police force has been doubled to 700 officers.
The RN is far from certain to win in Marseille. The outcome largely depends on who makes it to the second-round runoff and whether the left, led by Payan, will form an alliance with Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s radical left La France Insoumise to take an anti-RN stance. So far, the RN has benefited from a weak campaign by the traditional right.
However, Marseille is just one of several towns and cities in southern France being targeted by the far-right. Along the coast, in Nice—France’s fifth-largest city—Éric Ciotti…Éric Ciotti, who left his role as leader of the traditional right-wing party Les Républicains (LR) to ally with Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) ahead of the 2024 elections, is now aiming to take control of Nice from his former right-wing ally turned bitter rival, Christian Estrosi.
Across the political spectrum, candidates have been actively campaigning in neighborhoods like Saint-Just in Marseille’s 13th arrondissement.
Vincent Martigny, a political science professor at Côte d’Azur University, noted that a significant factor in both Marseille and Nice is the grassroots-driven union of the traditional right and the far right. He explained, “Voters from Les Républicains—whose party leadership has adopted increasingly radical positions closer to the RN—are thinking: ‘There’s no problem voting for the RN because, after all, the LR leadership has been strongly radicalizing for the past decade, so we’re already quite aligned on the most important issues.'”
Martigny added that while local elections often turn on local concerns rather than national ideology, the RN would likely portray any victory in Nice or Marseille as evidence of a “national momentum” or a “stepping stone” toward the presidency.
Meanwhile, in northern Marseille, Monique Cordier, a former teacher and optician who is canvassing for the city’s left-wing mayor, expressed confidence: “An RN win is not at all a foregone conclusion. I honestly don’t think they’ll win. It’s not in Marseille’s character to be racist.”
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about the potential political shift in Marseille and France framed in a natural tone with direct answers
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does political earthquake mean in this context
Its a dramatic way of saying a major unexpected shift in the political landscape For France it would mean the farright winning control of a major city for the first time breaking a longstanding national taboo
2 Who is the far right in France
It primarily refers to the National Rally party led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella Historically associated with antiimmigration nationalism and Euroscepticism it has worked in recent years to present a more mainstream image
3 Why is Marseille specifically important
Marseille is Frances secondlargest city a major Mediterranean port and a symbol of diversity and immigration If the farright wins here it would signal that their appeal has spread beyond their traditional rural and northern strongholds into a cosmopolitan southern metropolis
4 What are the local elections about
These are municipal elections to choose the mayor and city council who control local issues like housing schools policing and city budgets A win in Marseille would give the RN a powerful platform and significant administrative experience
5 Is the farright already in power anywhere in France
They control a number of smaller towns and have a strong presence in the European Parliament and National Assembly However they have never governed a city as large and significant as Marseille or any major French regionuntil recently when they won control of the NordPasdeCalais region
Advanced Contextual Questions
6 Whats driving this shift in Marseille specifically
Key local issues include high crime rates and feelings of insecurity neglected neighborhoods a lack of public services and economic struggles Many voters are frustrated with the traditional left and right parties that have governed the city for decades and see the RN as a protest vote for change
7 How does this relate to national French politics
A victory in Marseille would be a massive momentum boost for the RN ahead of the next presidential election It proves they can win big cities making their candidate appear more electable nationally
