After a year that was notoriously hard to predict (did anyone initially see Anora as the ultimate winner?), this awards season feels a little easier to map out. Paul Thomas Anderson’s quirky activism caper, One Battle After Another, has dominated so far, becoming only the fourth film ever to win best picture at both the New York and Los Angeles film critics groups, then the National Board of Review and the National Society of Film Critics. But how far can it go?
It leads this weekend’s Golden Globes with nine nominations, but the comedy categories also feature Marty Supreme—now a box-office hit—and its inescapable star, Timothée Chalamet. On the drama side, we have Sinners and Hamnet, two very different films solidifying two very different awards narratives. Here’s how I think it might all play out on Sunday:
Best Film (Drama)
The belated efforts to diversify the Globes voting pool are slowly paying off. This year’s major drama category includes three foreign-language films, two from Latino directors, one from a Black director, one from a Middle Eastern director, and one directed by an Asian woman. Unlike past years when filler films like The Great Debaters or Bobby rounded out the category, each nominee here is a strong contender likely to make the Oscars’ top 10, making predictions slightly trickier.
Frankenstein is perhaps the least likely winner—respected for its craft but not as loved for its emotional connection. Sentimental Value is the opposite yet might be too modest to win. There’s growing buzz for It Was Just an Accident and The Secret Agent, both timely tales of resisting oppressive forces, but I think this will come down to Hamnet and Sinners.
Sinners has the popular vote (and is, in my opinion, the far better film), but Hamnet is the more traditional Globes winner. Any recent backlash—from those who see it as shameless Oscar bait—hasn’t seemed to gain much traction offline. It’s going to be close. While I fear a season of Sinners unfairly playing runner-up, the extra heat from this week’s Actor award nominations (with surprise nods for Miles Caton and Wunmi Mosaku) shows there’s still strong momentum that could push it to a win on Sunday.
Will win: Sinners
Should win: Sinners
Should have been nominated: Lurker
Best Female Actor (Drama)
While it might have seemed like buzz cooled on Hamnet’s Jessie Buckley for a moment—with Rose Byrne winning most early awards—it was more a case of the film being better suited to larger voting bodies. Like Oppenheimer, this was never going to be as beloved by critics’ groups, but after her win at last weekend’s Critics Choice Awards, expect first-time nominee Buckley to take this easily.
There’s little competition from surprise entrants like Eva Victor in Sorry, Baby or Tessa Thompson in Hedda. Julia Roberts makes the most of the messy After the Hunt with a perfectly chilly performance, but the three-time winner isn’t really in contention. The Globes also love Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love, but the film hasn’t been easy to rally behind. Sentimental Value’s Renate Reinsve is arguably Buckley’s closest competition, but the gap between them is considerable. Given that even Hamnet’s critics have praised its tearjerking finale—which rests so heavily on Buckley’s face—I can’t see her losing this one.
Will win: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Should win: Julia Roberts (After the Hunt)
Should have been nominated: Rebecca Hall (Peter Hujar’s Day)
Best Male Actor (Drama)
This isn’t an easy category to predict this time around (unlike last year when Adrien Brody was…The obvious choice leads to two potential outcomes right now. Netflix is unlikely to factor into the race: Train Dreams with Joel Edgerton is a bit too quiet to gain traction, while Frankenstein’s Oscar Isaac fits the category best, though any awards buzz for that film is leaning more toward craft and Jacob Elordi’s performance. Then there are the two biopic contenders—the season has cooled on both Dwayne Johnson for The Smashing Machine and Jeremy Allen White for Deliver Me From Nowhere.
That brings us to the two less traditional but more compelling choices. Michael B. Jordan gives two commanding performances in Sinners (arguably three, after one of the twins becomes a vampire) and could become only the sixth Black actor to win in this category, appearing in nearly every scene. Alternatively, Wagner Moura could ride the critical wave to a win for The Secret Agent, following awards at Cannes and from the New York Film Critics Circle. It ultimately depends on whether voters prefer a big-budget studio blockbuster (albeit one with unusual personality) or an offbeat foreign-language indie. In this category, Moura might have the edge—but it will be close.
Will win: Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
Should win: Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
Should have been nominated: David Strathairn (A Little Prayer)
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### Best Film (Comedy or Musical)
This category used to be something of a joke, allowing duds like Burlesque and The Tourist to call themselves “Golden Globe–nominated,” but in recent years it has become as competitive as Drama. This year feels clearer than usual, with One Battle After Another almost certain to win—it’s the most nominated film of the night and has swept the precursors so far. The closest competition is probably Marty Supreme, which benefits from a later release and box-office success (it will likely outgross One Battle in the U.S.), but it feels more tied to a single performance and less like a well-rounded choice. Elsewhere, Blue Moon is similarly performance-driven, Bugonia is probably too offbeat, and while Nouvelle Vague and No Other Choice represent impressive international progress for comedies at the Globes (only three other foreign-language films have been nominated here since 2010), neither has strong enough momentum. One Battle After Another has this in the bag.
Will win: One Battle After Another
Should win: One Battle After Another
Should have been nominated: Twinless
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### Best Female Actor (Comedy or Musical)
Another strong year for this category (in 2025, Demi Moore beat eventual Oscar winner Mikey Madison and fellow nominees Cynthia Erivo and Karla Sofía Gascón), featuring only one actor who hasn’t been nominated for a Golden Globe before: Chase Infiniti for One Battle After Another. Her impressive performance still might not be the most memorable in a film full of them (the film’s best awards chances are arguably in the supporting categories). She’ll likely join Emma Stone (Bugonia), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) on the sidelines, as there seems to be a clear frontrunner.
A film like If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You might have seemed too weird to be an awards contender a decade ago (it’s still too weird to break into the Comedy/Musical category as a film), but the landscape has changed. Rose Byrne’s career-best work has already earned her nearly all the early awards. It also doesn’t hurt that, like Moore last year, she remains a glamorous, Globes-friendly star—and if she wins here, she’ll be [the ceremony’s] biggest.Oscar Competition
Will win: Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You)
Should win: Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You)
Should have been nominated: Kirsten Dunst (Roofman)
Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical
This category, like Best Comedy/Musical Film, likely comes down to two contenders. Ethan Hawke’s nomination for Blue Moon is well-deserved—he gives the best performance in the category, in my opinion. Jesse Plemons in Bugonia and Lee Byung-hun in No Other Choice are also strong, far from mere filler nominees (remember, Gabriel LaBelle was nominated for Saturday Night last year). As for Jay Kelly’s George Clooney and the emptiness of that film, the less said, the better.
So, it’s a showdown between veteran Leonardo DiCaprio and newcomer Timothée Chalamet. As brilliantly funny as DiCaprio is in One Battle After Another (I think he delivers the better comedic performance of the two), Chalamet is undoubtedly poised for his first win. He has earned an impressive five nominations since 2018. The Golden Globes tend to favor younger male talent more than the Oscars (recent non-Oscar winners include Austin Butler, Chadwick Boseman, Sebastian Stan, Andrew Garfield, and Taron Egerton). While his role as Bob Dylan was met with polite reception, the acclaim for his performance as Marty Mauser is on another level. Plus, it gives the celebrity-obsessed Globes broadcast another excuse to feature more shots of Kylie Jenner.
Will win: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
Should win: Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
Should have been nominated: Dylan O’Brien (Twinless)
Best Supporting Actress
This is an unusual category: Ariana Grande is nominated for a role she’s already been recognized for (Wicked: For Good); Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas are both nominated for Sentimental Value but perform in different languages; character actress Amy Madigan plays a witch in the horror film Weapons; singer and former reality star Teyana Taylor portrays a political revolutionary in One Battle After Another; and then there’s Emily Blunt for The Smashing Machine, notable mainly for how undeserving the performance seems.
I believe it will come down to Madigan and Taylor, both delivering bold, powerhouse turns in major studio films. Madigan has already won at both the New York Film Critics Circle and the Critics Choice Awards, showing she has significant support. However, Taylor gives what may be the most memorable performance in the night’s most-nominated film and could also take the prize. It’s a close call, but I think Madigan’s terrifyingly transformative Aunt Gladys will win.
Will win: Amy Madigan (Weapons)
Should win: Amy Madigan (Weapons)
Should have been nominated: Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
Best Supporting Actor
At first glance, this seems like a battle between two wildly different performances from Oscar winners in One Battle After Another: the strong work of Benicio del Toro and the poorly received turn by Sean Penn. Del Toro has won more critics’ awards so far (though my personal pick is Penn), but the Globes might ignore both—a common issue when two performers from the same film split the vote.
Paul Mescal in Hamnet doesn’t pose much threat, as he fades into the background beside his co-star Buckley. Adam Sandler is unlikely to win for Jay Kelly, a film that hasn’t gained much traction since its mixed reception at Venice. There’s reason to believe Stellan Skarsgård could win for what many consider his career-best work in Sentimental Value, especially since the film is about the industry itself. However, I think Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein will run away with this. He won last week’s Critics Choice Award, and his performance is the kind of big, transformative role voters have always loved.He’s also the standout performer in a film where the rest of the acting is a bit uneven. As a young, handsome actor in a category that once awarded Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals when he was completely out of the race, this would feel like a very old-school Globes win.
Will win: Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)
Should win: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
Should have been nominated: Miles Caton (Sinners)
### Best Director
This category includes filmmakers from five drama nominees and one comedy (apologies to Kleber Mendonça Filho for The Secret Agent as the notable drama snub). It’s also likely to produce a rare comedy win—the last non-drama winner was Damien Chazelle for La La Land in 2017, which was very much a musical. Chloé Zhao won this award for Nomadland in 2021, but Hamnet feels more performance-driven, as does Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. I see Guillermo del Toro as the category filler here for Frankenstein, a film that, to me, is one of his weakest.
There’s a scenario where the very deserving Jafar Panahi could pull off a bold, statement win for It Was Just an Accident—a film that is both a propulsive thriller and a brave act of defiance. But I believe it will come down to Ryan Coogler for Sinner and Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another, both bold auteurist epics. I think Anderson will ultimately win; his film has the most nominations of the night and is already a juggernaut this season, and it would mark his first Golden Globe.
Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Should have been nominated: Michael Angelo Covino (Splitsville)
Frequently Asked Questions
Golden Globes 2026 Predictions Picks FAQs
Beginner General Questions
Q What are the Golden Globes
A They are major annual awards given by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association to honor the best in film and television from the past year
Q When will the 2026 Golden Globes ceremony be held
A The ceremony is typically held in early January The exact date for the 2026 show will be announced closer to the event
Q Whats the difference between Predictions and Picks
A Predictions are our educated guesses about which films and performances will actually win based on industry buzz trends and early awards Picks are our personal favorites or recommendations for who we think should win based on merit
Q How do you make these predictions
A We analyze a combination of factors critical reception festival buzz early awards season results historical voting patterns of the HFPA and general industry chatter
Q Why should I care about predictions before the show
A They make watching more fun Following predictions helps you understand the awards race spot potential frontrunners and have a stake in the outcomes Its also a great guide for what movies to watch before the ceremony
Advanced Detailed Questions
Q What are the biggest challenges in predicting the 2026 winners this early
A The main challenge is that many of the major contending films havent been released or even seen yet Festival premieres in late 2025 will be crucial Also the HFPAs voting body and rules can evolve changing what they prioritize
Q Which film genres or types tend to perform well at the Golden Globes compared to the Oscars
A The Globes often favor big crowdpleasing dramas musicals and comedies They also have a wellknown soft spot for international stars and films sometimes more so than the Oscars
Q Can you give an example of a common prediction pitfall
A A common mistake is assuming the critical darling will automatically win The HFPA being journalists sometimes prioritizes star power compelling narratives or films with broader appeal over pure critical
