Israel’s future hung in the balance on Wednesday morning as it became clear that Benjamin Netanyahu had lost his governing majority, and his political fate now depends on whether opposition Jewish parties are willing to form a common front with Palestinian parties, whose support surged in Tuesday’s elections. The leader of the Jewish opposition bloc, retired general Gadi Eisenkot, appeared to rule out such a broad coalition in a premature victory declaration overnight for what he called a “Zionist majority.” As vote counting continued on Wednesday, initial exit poll projections that Eisenkot’s bloc would have a narrow lead over Netanyahu’s coalition looked increasingly uncertain as the prime minister’s bloc edged ahead, with votes from deployed soldiers and other absentee ballots still to be counted. With 70% of votes counted, both Jewish blocs looked certain to fall short of the 61 Knesset seats needed for a majority government, leaving Eisenkot and his allies facing a clear choice: either make a pact with Arab Israeli parties heading for a record result of 16-19 seats, or hand Netanyahu a political lifeline in the form of new elections or a unity government. Donald Trump took credit for Netanyahu’s better-than-expected performance so far, claiming his open backing before the vote had made the difference. “When the endorsement went out, it helped him a lot,” Trump said, adding that the result appeared to be heading for a stalemate or a Netanyahu win. View image in fullscreenBenjamin Netanyahu at the Likud party election night event in Jerusalem. Photograph: Alexi J Rosenfeld/Getty ImagesYair Golan, leader of the centre-left Democrats, a junior partner in Eisenkot’s Change bloc, urged Eisenkot to negotiate with the two Palestinian parties, the Joint List and Ra’am (the United Arab List). “We have no future here if we don’t stop being afraid. And if we don’t put an end to racism. We can no longer accept Netanyahu’s racist distinction between Jewish and Arab votes,” Golan said in a post on X. Rise of Palestinian parties in Knesset will redraw Israel’s political landscape Read more“Anyone who tries to erase the votes of Arab citizens is surrendering to Netanyahu and giving up on Israel,” he added, pointing out that Netanyahu relied on ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties that were non-Zionist and opposed conscription for their constituents. Noa Landau, a commentator writing in Haaretz, argued that by making Zionism the test for forming a coalition and excluding potential partners—while the prime minister had not—Eisenkot had fallen “into the trap Netanyahu laid for him over the course of the election campaign.” The Joint List leader, Yousef Jabareen, said its strong performance meant it “can’t be ignored under any political scenario.” He said Netanyahu’s government, especially its extremist national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, “has made life bitter for every Arab citizen.” “We will be ready to pave the way to oust the government of Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich—and send them home,” Jabareen said. Another Joint List official described the choice facing the Jewish opposition as “supremacy or building democracy.” View image in fullscreenGadi Eisenkot at an election night rally in Tel Aviv. Photograph: Jack Guez/AFP/Getty ImagesCounting all the votes could take another few days, with absentee ballots the last to be tallied. Most of those are from deployed soldiers. The army vote usually swings right, but that broad picture may be complicated by the fact that many older, more moderate reservists are now on active duty. Once all the votes are counted, it will be up to Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog, to give one of the party leaders six weeks to form a government. If the first choice fails, the opportunity passes to his rival. In the weeks of political wrangling likely to follow, both Netanyahu and Eisenkot are expected to lure defectors from each other’s camps. Netanyahu would remain in office in a caretaker capacity until a new majorityA government may be formed. He might expect to benefit if the deadlock leads to another round of elections. For example, tens of thousands of diaspora Israelis who returned to vote on Tuesday—mostly opposed to the governing coalition—might not return for another vote. Tuesday’s election came as Israel faces accusations of genocide in Gaza and ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in the West Bank. Netanyahu is separately wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes. The election was widely seen as a referendum on the 77-year-old leader, and turnout reached 77.7%, the highest since 1999, with a marked increase in the number of serving military members voting. View image in fullscreen. Netanyahu supporters celebrate in the early hours of Wednesday. Photograph: John Wessels/AFP/Getty Images. Political deadlock has led to repeated votes in the past. Between 2019 and 2022, Israel held five elections. Netanyahu is Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, having governed for 19 of the past 30 years, and is its most tenacious political survivor. Entangled in a long-running corruption trial, Netanyahu and his far-right coalition had stoked xenophobic fears and suggested Israel would be vulnerable to a nuclear attack without him. The campaign, febrile even by Israeli standards, included Netanyahu posting a picture of a nuclear explosion devastating Tel Aviv on the eve of the polls opening. Since the deadly attack launched by Hamas on Israel’s southern communities on 7 October 2023, Israel has devastated Gaza and killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, fought Hezbollah in Lebanon, occupied new territory in Syria and launched a war with the US against Iran.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Coalition Talks Expected in Israel as Netanyahu and Eisenkot Blocs Look Set to Fall Short of a Majority
1 Whats happening in Israels election
No bloc won enough seats to form a government on its own so parties now have to negotiate to build a coalition
2 What is a coalition in Israeli politics
Its a partnership of parties that together control more than half of the Knessets 120 seats allowing them to form a government
3 How many seats does a majority require
At least 61 out of 120
4 Who are the Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocs
The Netanyahu bloc is led by Benjamin Netanyahus Likud and includes rightwing and religious parties The Eisenkot bloc refers to the camp associated with former general Gadi Eisenkot including centrist and opposition parties
5 Why are both blocs falling short
Neither sides allied parties collectively reached 61 seats so each needs support from parties outside its camp
6 What happens if no coalition is formed
The mandate can pass to another candidate and if that also fails Israel holds another election
7 Who decides who gets to try forming a government
The president consults party leaders and assigns the task usually to the candidate with the best chance of assembling a majority
8 How long do coalition talks take
The candidate typically gets about four weeks with a possible extension so talks can last several weeks
9 What do parties negotiate over
Cabinet posts policy commitments budget priorities and religious or security issues important to their voters
10 Why is this hard in Israel
Israels proportional representation system means many small parties so coalitions often need several partners with very different demands
11 What common problems arise in talks
Conflicting policy demands disputes over ministerial jobs and parties refusing to sit with certain others
12 What are practical tips for following the talks
Track seat counts watch which parties meet whom and pay attention to policy demands rather than just headlines
13 Whats the difference between a bloc and a coalition
A bloc is a group of parties that lean toward working together a coalition is the formal majority government they build
14 Can a party join either side
Yessome parties stay uncommitted and can tip the
