Voters in Andalucía, a region in southern Spain, will head to the polls this weekend in an election that is expected to give the conservative People’s Party (PP) an outright majority. This would be another heavy blow for Pedro Sánchez’s struggling Socialist party in what was once one of its strongest strongholds.
Sunday’s election in Spain’s most populous region—the last major vote before next year’s general election—will act as a gauge of wider public opinion. It could also show whether support for the far-right Vox party is starting to level off.
The PP, which has governed this former Socialist stronghold for the past seven years, is trying to frame the election as a referendum on Sánchez, the prime minister. His inner circle, party, and government are facing a series of corruption allegations.
According to polls, the current PP regional president, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, is on track to nearly match his 2022 result, when the conservatives won 58 seats in the 109-seat regional parliament.
Meanwhile, the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), which governed Andalucía from 1982 to 2019, looks set for its worst-ever result, dropping from 30 seats to 28.
Vox, which entered mainstream Spanish politics in the 2018 Andalusian regional election, is expected to gain one or two more seats, adding to the 14 it won four years ago.
Moreno hopes another absolute majority will mean he doesn’t have to rely on Vox. The far-right party has been trying to push the PP further to the right in regional coalitions by demanding that Spaniards get priority over foreign-born people for housing and public services. Moreno seems so confident of his majority that he has dismissed Vox’s so-called “national priority” policy as “an empty slogan.”
Both Moreno and the PP’s national leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, want to use Sunday’s vote to boost the party across the country by capitalizing on the scandals surrounding the national government.
Moreno has called his PSOE opponent, former national minister and deputy prime minister María Jesús Montero, “the lady from the past” and has stressed the need to “bury bad politics and leave the past behind to build the future.” Feijóo has been even blunter, saying Andalusian voters must “choose between the conspiracy led by Sánchez and watched over by Montero, and [Moreno’s] top team.”
Recent events have put even more pressure on the Socialists. Earlier this week, Montero was heavily criticized for calling the deaths of two Guardia Civil officers—who died while chasing drug traffickers off the Andalusian coast—a “workplace accident.” She later corrected herself, saying the deaths occurred “in the line of duty.”
Moreno has also faced criticism. With 42.2% of Andalusian voters naming healthcare as the region’s biggest problem, his handling of a cancer-screening scandal has come back into focus during the campaign.
Late last year, the regional government admitted that more than 2,300 women had not been told about their inconclusive mammogram results, meaning they missed follow-up tests and treatments. The delay in diagnosis sparked widespread anger and protests, which led to the resignation of the regional health minister.
Moreno insisted this week that no one had died because of the administrative failure—a claim that campaigners have disputed.
Ángela Claverol, president of the breast cancer support group Amama Sevilla, said at least six women had died because the screening results were not communicated.
She said the cancer scandal…This was a sign of a wider crisis in Andalusia’s health services, which she and many others blame on Moreno’s privatisation of the public health system. Under Spain’s decentralised system, the country’s self-governing regions are responsible for healthcare.
“It’s awful; there are delays of up to three months for cancer surgery,” she said. “There are delays for CT scans, MRIs, appointments with oncologists, radiotherapy, and so on. The delays are terrible for oncology, but even for ordinary people, if I ask for an appointment with my GP at the health centre, they won’t give me one for 21 days.”
Claverol said the public healthcare system had collapsed because the regional government was increasingly using private providers.
“Instead of reinvesting that money in the public sector—hiring people, doctors, specialists, and administrative staff—they’ve siphoned it off to the private sector,” she said.
Moreno, however, says his government has modernised and upgraded hospitals and equipment, and increased capacity “so that more patients can be seen and waiting times can be reduced, moving us towards a closer, more agile, and decisive health system.”
Housing is another major concern for voters in Andalusia, as it is elsewhere in Spain. As cities like Seville, Málaga, and Córdoba suffer from overtourism—including soaring rents and a shortage of places to live—local groups are urging the regional government to focus on residents rather than tourists.
Juan Carlos Benítez, a member of Albayzín Habitable, a residents’ association formed two years ago in response to dramatic changes in Granada’s picturesque Albaicín neighbourhood, said the Moreno government seemed to have chosen “a strategy of quantitative tourism over qualitative tourism.”
Benítez said Granada was the latest Andalusian city to fall victim to short-term thinking that prioritises rapid economic growth through tourism over sustainable development. He said recent months had been “catastrophic” for the neighbourhood, with a local health centre closing and many important local buildings being sold off for redevelopment.
“It will become a Disneyland-style centre where no real people live, and which only generates money for restaurant and shop owners, but doesn’t really benefit society as a whole,” Benítez added.
Pablo Simón, a political scientist at Madrid’s Carlos III University, said the results of Sunday’s election would be felt far beyond Andalusia as Spain prepares for the general election. Polls suggest the PP will come first again next year, but will need Vox’s support to govern.
“If Moreno Bonilla keeps his absolute majority and Vox fails to gain influence in forming a government, that will confirm the idea that Vox is now somewhat stagnant and the PP is gaining more ground,” said Simón.
He said that despite performing relatively well in recent regional elections in Aragón, Extremadura, and Castilla y León, there was a sense that Vox was stalling due to internal disagreements, and its chances of reaching a coveted 20% of the vote might be fading.
“It’s a party that’s firmly anchored around 13-14%,” added Simón. “That means nationally it’s around 17%. That’s a very good result. But since they had set their sights on 20%, that has backfired on them.” However, he added that any scandals involving PP-led regions—such as the conservatives’ mishandling of the deadly floods in Valencia in 2024—could still turn things around for Vox.
Simón also said the socialists should prepare for a “terrible” result on Sunday.
“The latest poll I’ve seen gives them 27 seats, so three fewer,” he said. “We’re talking about a gap of more than 20 points between the first and second party.”It’s just awful.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs about the Andalusian election and its significance for Spain written in a natural tone with clear answers
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 Whats so special about this election in Andalusia
Andalusia is Spains most populous region For decades it was a stronghold of the Socialist Party This election is seen as a test of whether the conservative Popular Party can hold power there and whether the farright party Vox will gain influence Because Andalusia is so big its results often predict what will happen in national elections
2 Why is this election seen as a sign of broader political change
If the rightwing parties win or strengthen their position in Andalusia it suggests that Spanish voters are moving away from the left This could mean the national government might lose the next general election Its like a weather vane for the whole countrys political mood
3 Who are the main parties running
The main ones are
PSOE The traditional leftwing party that has ruled Andalusia for 37 years
PP The main conservative party currently leading the regional government
Vox A farright party that entered government for the first time in 2022 as a junior partner of the PP
Sumar A new leftwing alliance formed to unite smaller parties
Por Andalucía A coalition of greens and leftists
4 What is Vox and why do people talk about them so much
Vox is a farright party that is antiimmigration antifeminist and strongly nationalist They were once considered extreme but they became part of the Andalusian government in 2022 Their presence in this election is a big deal because it shows how farright ideas are becoming normal in Spanish politics
AdvancedLevel Questions
5 How does the Andalusian election relate to the national government in Madrid
Spains national prime minister Pedro Sánchez has a fragile coalition government If the PP wins big in Andalusia it will pressure Sánchez to call early national elections It also gives the PP momentum and a narrative that change is coming Conversely if the left holds
