十天可能震撼世界：四项关键选举中民主规范岌岌可危

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font-size: 20px; } .furniture-wrapper .standfirst li a, .furniture-wrapper .standfirst a, .furniture-wrapper #standfirst li a, .furniture-wrapper #standfirst a, .furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=standfirst] li a, .furniture-wrapper [data-gu-name=standfirst] a { border-bottom: none; background-image: none !important; text-decoration: underline; text-underline-offset: 6px; } } ```所提供的文本是CSS代码，而非散文，因此无法在不改变其含义的情况下改写为流畅的英文。如果您愿意，我可以用通俗的英文解释这段代码的作用。四大洲的四场选举在短短10天内可能显著重塑全球政治——要么推动世界进一步沿着当前的威权道路前行，要么标志着民主规范的有限复兴。 在这四场竞选中，基本民主原则都岌岌可危，而此时威权主义正以惊人速度在全球蔓延。根据总部位于瑞典的V-Dem研究所使用多变量评估工具的数据，全球普通公民的民主自由度已降至1978年以来的最低水平——远在柏林墙倒塌和欧洲共产主义崩溃之前。 这四场关键选举的集群要么阻止这一趋势，要么强化它。在每场竞选中，亲民主政党都与现任或志在成为威权者的人展开激烈角逐。每种情况的结果都可能在其所在地区及其他地区产生溢出效应。 巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦在总统选举决选中面对右翼参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗。照片：Evaristo Sa/AFP/Getty Images。周日，巴西将举行总统决选，一名极右翼候选人领先。如果他获胜，弗拉维奥·博索纳罗威胁要“修改宪法”、赦免其父策划政变，并放松环境限制——这对亚马逊雨林而言是一个关键问题。 同一天，亚历山大·武契奇在塞尔维亚过去12年经营的半威权体制将面临迄今最严峻的挑战，形式是一场非传统、由学生领导的抗议运动，推出一批鲜为人知的学者和技术官僚，以简单口号“塞尔维亚还是黑手党？”参选。 “这是致命威胁”：原住民群体担心博索纳罗对巴西亚马逊城镇选民的控制。阅读更多。 周二，轮到本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在投票站面对挑战者。过去30年中有19年担任以色列领导人的他，监督了一段漫长的民主倒退和人权侵犯不断升级的时期。他因在加沙的战争罪和反人类罪被国际刑事法院通缉，如果败选，还可能因国内正在进行的腐败审判面临更大的法律风险。他的极右翼联盟目前落后于反对派阵营。 全屏查看图片。以色列特拉维夫的一块数字广告牌上，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普和以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的图像显示希伯来语信息：“特朗普总统：投票给内塔尼亚胡。只有和他一起，我们才能完成任务。”照片：Oded Balilty/AP。 11月3日，在这可能具有历史意义的10天结束时，唐纳德·特朗普帝国式总统任期将面临美国选民在中期选举中的斥责，国会至少一院、可能两院很可能落入民主党手中。然而，他们随后将面临艰巨任务，试图约束特朗普的过度行为——这些行为已使美国在V-Dem研究所的自由民主指数上大幅下滑。 到周二美国计票时，世界可能看起来明显不同。四场迫在眉睫的竞选不仅聚集在一起，而且相互交织。特朗普的Maga运动已向內塔尼亚胡、武契奇和博索纳罗提供公开政治支持。在塞尔维亚学生和亲民主活动人士的手机上发现了以色列制造的Pegasus间谍软件。博索纳罗强烈亲以色列，并承诺跟随美国脚步，将巴西大使馆迁往耶路撒冷。美国为内塔尼亚胡的战争提供了大部分弹药。塞尔维亚承诺在以色列国防系统上花费20亿美元，9月两国开设了一家联合工厂，生产监视和攻击设备。 威权右翼在一国的胜利将增强其他国家的对应力量，反之，亲民主运动者在每场竞选中的胜利将给世界各地盟友带来希望和鼓励。 这四场选举可能密切相关，但威权主义与民主之间的斗争在每个国家采取非常不同的形式。每种情况的可能性不同，利害关系也不同，但都是势均力敌的竞选。 全屏查看图片。冲浪者聚集在圣保罗州圣维森特Milionários海滩，参加捍卫民主和支持路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦连任的示威活动。横幅上写着“为了民主”。照片：Roosevelt Cassio/Reuters。 巴西。民主指数排名28。自路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦于2023年第一天就职以来，巴西经历了民主复兴，击败了其极右翼民粹主义前任推翻10月选举结果的企图。根据V-Dem的衡量标准，它现在的民主资质优于英国，远优于美国。 四年前那些选举的失败者雅伊尔·博索纳罗——一名曾在巴西21年军事独裁下服役且仍然钦佩它的前士兵——因试图发动政变以继续掌权而被判处27年监禁。现在他的儿子弗拉维奥正寻求追随他的脚步，并在周日进入第二轮选举，以小幅但显著的领先优势超过卢拉。 全屏查看图片四岁的法比奥·埃托尔在巴西罗赖马州博阿维斯塔支持总统候选人的大规模车辆贴花活动中，穿着印有总统候选人弗拉维奥·博索纳罗图像的衬衫，为25岁的母亲弗朗西斯莱内·费尔南德斯摆姿势拍照。照片：Raphael Alves/The Guardian 小博索纳罗不仅承诺释放其父，还承诺惩罚参与起诉他的司法人员。如果他获胜，他将拥有国会中支持他的右翼多数派与之合作，并誓言修改宪法并“重新民主化国家”。这一术语让人回想起1985年军事统治的过渡，对于巴西左翼来说，从一位公开钦佩军政府著名成员的人口中说出，带有令人不寒而栗的奥威尔式意味。 博索纳罗以强硬的法律与秩序政策应对高犯罪率的长期问题。他主张将刑事责任年龄降至18岁以下，将更多青少年送进监狱，并呼吁司法改革，批评者认为他打算以此攻击法院的独立性。 全屏查看图片选举名单“学生名单——学生必胜”的支持者于2026年10月22日在塞尔维亚贝尔格莱德斯拉维亚广场参加最后一场竞选集会。照片：Marko Đurica/Reuters 塞尔维亚 民主指数评级112 在担任总统的12年里，亚历山大·武契奇稳步侵蚀了塞尔维亚民主的支柱。他和盟友接管了该国几乎所有广播频道，结果在当前竞选过程中，他成为国家电视屏幕上压倒性的存在。最后两个独立新闻频道的未来现在存疑，因为它们在竞选期间被一名与欧尔班被罢免的匈牙利政权有关联的葡萄牙投资者收购。 执政的塞尔维亚进步党（SNS）已将部委和其他国家机构变成政治工具，以至于用研究、透明与问责中心项目主任拉沙·内德尔科夫的话说，“国家与政党之间的界限几乎被抹去”。 一场学生抗议运动已席卷塞尔维亚两年。本周末它将尝试掌权 阅读更多 到目前为止，试图约束武契奇的反对党一直软弱且分裂，但两年前诺维萨德火车站混凝土雨棚坍塌砸向人群、造成16人死亡的事件改变了塞尔维亚政治。这场悲剧凝聚了全国深层的幻灭情绪，并产生了一场学生领导的大规模运动，此后它经受住了国家恐