Kusan kashi ɗaya cikin huɗu na masu jefa ƙuri'a a Turai yanzu suna goyon bayan jam'iyyun masu tsattsauran ra'ayi na dama, bisa ga bincike. Wannan kaso ya ƙaru kusan sau biyar tun daga tsakiyar shekarun 1990 kuma ya ƙaru musamman sosai a cikin shekaru uku da suka gabata.
Wani bincike da masana kimiyyar siyasa sama da 150 a ƙasashe 31 suka yi ya gano cewa adadin Turawa da ke jefa ƙuri'a ga jam'iyyar dama mai tsattsauran ra'ayi a zaɓen ƙasa na baya-bayan nan a ƙasarsu ya haura zuwa sama da 23%. Wannan ya tashi daga kusan 10% shekaru goma da suka gabata da kusan 5% a 1995.
Binciken ya jagoranci Matthijs Rooduijn, masanin kimiyyar siyasa a Jami'ar Amsterdam, don binciken PopuList na jam'iyyun Turai masu tsattsauran ra'ayi na hagu, dama, da masu ra'ayin jama'a. Har ila yau, ya gano cewa kusan kashi 30% na Turawa yanzu suna jefa ƙuri'a ga jam'iyyun adawa da gwamnati—wani sabon tarihi.
"Lokacin da muka fara aikin PopuList a 2018, babban abin da aka gano shi ne cewa ɗaya cikin huɗu na Turawa suna jefa ƙuri'a ga jam'iyyun masu ra'ayin jama'a, galibi masu tsattsauran ra'ayi na hagu da dama," in ji Rooduijn. "Yanzu ɗaya cikin huɗu suna jefa ƙuri'a ga jam'iyyun dama masu tsattsauran ra'ayi, galibi masu ra'ayin jama'a. Canji ne babba."
Ƙaruwar goyon bayan dama mai tsattsauran ra'ayi ya kasance sananne musamman tsakanin 2023 da 2025, binciken ya gano. Jam'iyyun dama masu tsattsauran ra'ayi sun sami nasarori masu yawa a zaɓen ƙasa a manyan ƙasashe kamar Faransa da Burtaniya a 2024, sannan a Jamus a shekara mai zuwa.
National Rally na Faransa, wanda Jordan Bardella ke jagoranta, ya zama babbar jam'iyya ɗaya a majalisar dokokin Faransa a 2024. Jam'iyyar Freedom Party (FPÖ) mai tsattsauran ra'ayi ta Austria ta tashi daga 16% zuwa 29% a zaɓen 2024. National Rally (RN) na Faransa ya tashi daga 19% zuwa 37%, ya zama babbar jam'iyya ɗaya a majalisar dokokin Faransa. Chega a Portugal ya tashi daga 7% zuwa 18%.
A Burtaniya, Reform UK ya ƙara yawan kuri'unsa daga 2% a 2019 (lokacin da yake Jam'iyyar Brexit) zuwa 14% a 2024, in ji binciken. Reform ya dage a baya cewa ba shi da tsattsauran ra'ayi na dama. Bai amsa buƙatar sharhi daga Guardian ba.
A zaɓen Jamus na 2025, jam'iyyar Alternative for Germany (AfD) mai tsattsauran ra'ayi ta ninka maki daga 10% zuwa 21%, ta ƙare a matsayin jam'iyya ta biyu mafi girma a ƙasar a karon farko.
Jam'iyyun masu ra'ayin jama'a na dama masu tsattsauran ra'ayi yanzu suna cikin haɗin gwiwar gwamnati a Croatia, Czechia, Italiya, da Finland. Suna kuma tallafawa gwamnatin tsiraru ta dama a Sweden. Bisa ga bincike, suna kan gaba a zaɓen ra'ayi a Austria, Belgium, Faransa, Jamus, da Burtaniya.
Waɗannan jam'iyyun kuma sun fuskanci shan kashi a kwanan nan. A Netherlands, Jam'iyyar Freedom Party (PVV) ta Geert Wilders ta rasa kusan kashi ɗaya bisa uku na kujerunta kuma ta ƙare a matsayi na biyu a bara. A Hungary, Fidesz na Viktor Orbán ya sha kaye sosai a hannun abokin hamayyarsa na tsakiya-dama a watan Afrilu.
Duk da waɗannan koma baya, adadin masu jefa ƙuri'a na Turai da ke goyon bayan jam'iyyun dama masu tsattsauran ra'ayi ya ci gaba da ƙaruwa. "Yana da mahimmanci a jaddada cewa wannan ba abu ne kwatsam ba," in ji Rooduijn. "Yana faruwa tsawon shekaru, kuma yana ƙaruwa kwanan nan."
Abubuwa da dama sun bayyana wannan yanayin, a cewar masana da ke aiki a kan PopuList. Jerin ya haɗa da jam'iyyun siyasa da suka ci akalla kujera ɗaya a majalisa ko kuma 2% na kuri'un jama'a a zaɓen majalisar dokoki na ƙasa tun daga 1989.
Na farko, Rooduijn ya ce, bincike ya nuna cewa halayen masu jefa ƙuri'a game da jigogin dama masu tsattsauran ra'ayi, kamar shige da fice, ba su canza sosai ba a tsawon lokaci. Amma waɗannan batutuwa sun zama mafi mahimmanci a yadda mutane ke yanke shawarar wace jam'iyya za su jefa ƙuri'a.
Na biyu, jam'iyyun dama masu tsattsauran ra'ayi sun zama al'ada—wani tsari da ke ƙarfafa kansa. "Yayin da suke girma da samun nasara, suna ƙara zama 'al'ada,'" in ji Rooduijn. "Wannan yana taimakawa ta hanyar kafofin watsa labarai da kuma jam'iyyun al'ada da ke ɗaukar ra'ayoyinsu."
A ƙarshe, jam'iyyun dama masu tsattsauran ra'ayi "masu ba da labari ne masu kyau sosai," in ji shi. "Sun san yadda za su tsara saƙonsu, wanda koyaushe yana game da ƙungiyar ciki da ƙungiyar waje—al'umma tare da baƙi, alal misali." Ya ce wannan ya haifar da labarin "jarumai da miyagu," wanda ke da alaƙa da wani kyakkyawan tarihi inda komai ya fi kyau. "Kuma sun fi dacewa da bayyana shi, da tada motsin rai: fushi, raini, amma kuma girman kai da bege. Sun zama ƙwararru."
A zaɓen Jamus na 2025, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), wanda Alice Weidel ke jagoranta, ya ninka yawan kuri'unsa daga 10% zuwa 21%.
An ƙaddamar da PopuList shekaru takwas da suka gabata tare da haɗin gwiwar Guardian. Bisa ga aikin da aka yarda da shi a tsakanin masana kimiyyar siyasa, yana bayyana jam'iyyun dama masu tsattsauran ra'ayi a matsayin waɗanda ke goyon bayan akidu biyu na asali: "nativism" da "authoritarianism."
Nativism shine imani cewa ƙasa ta kamata ta zama gida ga ƙungiyar asali kawai. Don haka masu nativism gabaɗaya suna ƙin baƙi da waɗanda ba na asali ba, suna ganin su a matsayin barazana ga al'ada da bukatun al'ummar asali.
Har ila yau, babban nau'i ne na "exclusionism": jam'iyyun dama masu tsattsauran ra'ayi yawanci suna ware wasu "ƙungiyoyin waje" da ake gani, kamar mutanen addinai daban-daban ko yanayin jima'i, ko manyan masu mulki.
Masu authoritarianism suna ganin ya kamata al'ummomi su kasance masu tsari kuma duk wani keta haddi ga hukuma ya kamata a hukunta shi da tsanani. Suna ganin tsayayyen doka da oda a matsayin muhimmin buƙatu don zaman lafiya da kuma ƙasa mai lafiya.
Yawancin masana kimiyyar siyasa suna raba jam'iyyun dama masu tsattsauran ra'ayi zuwa jam'iyyun "extreme right," waɗanda ke nufin kifar da tsarin da ake da shi, gami da ta hanyar tashin hankali, da jam'iyyun "radical right," waɗanda gabaɗaya ke aiki—ko da'awa—a cikin tsarin dimokuradiyya.
Duk da haka, saboda wani lokaci yana iya zama ba a sani ba ko jam'iyya "radical" ce ko "extreme" ta dama—saƙonta na iya zama mara daidaituwa, wasu mambobi na iya zama masu tsattsauran ra'ayi fiye da wasu, kuma matsayinta na iya canzawa—ana amfani da "far right" don rufe duka biyun.
Wasu jam'iyyun dama masu tsattsauran ra'ayi a Turai sun yi ƙoƙarin hana wannan lakabin a yi amfani da shi a kansu. A Jamus, hukumar leƙen asiri ta cikin gida ta sanya AfD a matsayin "ƙungiyar da ake zargin ta kasance mai tsattsauran ra'ayi ta dama" kuma kotuna sun tabbatar da hakan, amma ba za a iya kiran jam'iyyar a matsayin "tabbatacciyar" mai tsattsauran ra'ayi ta dama ba har sai an kammala bitar kotu.
Kotun koli ta Faransa ta yi watsi da ƙin yarda na 2024 na National Rally (RN) game da lakabin "far right" (extrême droite) na ma'aikatar cikin gida, tana mai cewa ainihin akidar jam'iyyar, maganganun ta, da kuma tsarin siyasarta na dogon lokaci sun tabbatar da rarrabuwa.
A Belgium, Vlaams Blok ya canza suna zuwa Vlaams Belang a 2004, bayan da kotun koli ta yi watsi da hujjarsa cewa hukuncin wata karamar kotu da ta tabbatar da bayanin jam'iyyar a matsayin "mai wariyar launin fata" wani yunƙuri ne na kundin tsarin mulki don rufe bakin abokin hamayya da aka zaɓa.
Gabaɗaya, kotuna sun gano cewa rarrabuwa al'amari ne na kimiyyar siyasa kuma, duk da ƙoƙarin jam'iyyun dama masu tsattsauran ra'ayi na tsaftace kamanninsu, kafofin watsa labarai, hukumomin jiha, da abokan hamayya suna da 'yanci su kira su da haka bisa ga akidarsu ta asali.
Sabon PopuList ya gano jam'iyyun dama masu tsattsauran ra'ayi 133 a Turai, sama da 112 a 2003. Kamar yadda yake da jam'iyyun hagu masu tsattsauran ra'ayi 65 na Turai, kusan duka an rarraba su a matsayin masu ra'ayin jama'a. Gabaɗaya, yana suna jam'iyyun masu ra'ayin jama'a 201, mafi yawansu masu tsattsauran ra'ayi na dama ko hagu, sama da 165 a 2003.
Yawanci ana haɗe shi da "akidar mai masaukin baki" ta dama ko hagu, ra'ayin jama'a yana raba al'umma zuwa ƙungiyoyi biyu masu kama da juna kuma masu adawa: "mutane masu tsarki" da "masu mulki masu lalata," kuma yana jayayya cewa duk siyasa ya kamata ta nuna wannan. Bayanin "ra'ayin jama'a." Magoya bayanta suna ganin ta a matsayin wani tsarin dimokuradiyya wanda ke sanya talakawa a gaban masu mulki. Masu suka suna jayayya cewa lokacin da masu ra'ayin jama'a suka hau mulki, sukan raunana ka'idojin dimokuradiyya—alal misali, ta hanyar lalata kotuna da kafofin watsa labarai, ko ta hanyar iyakance haƙƙin tsiraru.
"Suna ba da murya ga takaicin mutane," in ji Rooduijn. "Wannan yana da kyau ga dimokuradiyya. Amma ra'ayoyinsu ba koyaushe suke daidaita da ainihin dabi'un dimokuradiyya mai sassaucin ra'ayi ba. Wannan gaskiya ne musamman ga jam'iyyun masu ra'ayin jama'a na dama masu tsattsauran ra'ayi."
"Kuma wannan yana da mahimmanci. Kwarewar ƙasashe kamar Hungary, Poland, da Amurka ta nuna cewa lokacin da masu ra'ayin jama'a na dama masu tsattsauran ra'ayi suka hau mulki, dimokuradiyya kanta na iya fuskantar barazana."
Tambayoyi da Amsoshi
Ga jerin tambayoyi da ake yawan yi dangane da batun goyon bayan jam'iyyar dama mai tsattsauran ra'ayi a Turai da aka rubuta cikin yanayi na halitta tare da amsoshi kai tsaye
Tambayoyi na Matakin Farko
1 Menene ainihin jam'iyyar dama mai tsattsauran ra'ayi
Jam'iyyar dama mai tsattsauran ra'ayi yawanci tana da ra'ayoyin kishin ƙasa, ƙin shige da fice, da kuma mulkin kama-karya. Suna adawa da Tarayyar Turai da manyan 'yan siyasa na gargajiya, kuma galibi suna tallafawa manufofin doka da oda da dabi'un zamantakewa na gargajiya
2 Shin kusan ɗaya cikin huɗu yana nufin kashi ɗaya bisa huɗu na dukan Turawa masu tsattsauran ra'ayi ne na dama
A'a Yana nufin cewa a zaɓen baya-bayan nan a Turai, kusan 24% na mutanen da suka jefa ƙuri'a sun zaɓi jam'iyyar dama mai tsattsauran ra'ayi. Wannan bai ƙidaya mutanen da ba su jefa ƙuri'a ba ko waɗanda suka jefa ƙuri'a ga wasu jam'iyyun
3 Me yasa mutane da yawa ke jefa ƙuri'a ga waɗannan jam'iyyun yanzu
Babban dalilan sun haɗa da damuwa game da shige da fice, takaicin tattalin arziki, jin cewa jam'iyyun al'ada ba sa sauraron su, da kuma sha'awar jagoranci mai ƙarfi da sauƙi a lokutan rashin tabbas
4 Shin wannan yana faruwa a ko'ina a Turai
Yana faruwa a ƙasashe da yawa amma ba duka ba. Yana da ƙarfi sosai a wurare kamar Faransa, Italiya, Jamus, da Sweden. Yana da rauni a wurare kamar Spain da Portugal, kuma har yanzu yana da ƙanƙanta a Burtaniya
5 Shin jefa ƙuri'a ga jam'iyyar dama mai tsattsauran ra'ayi yana nufin kai mai wariyar launin fata ne ko mai bin Nazi
Ba lallai ba ne Yayin da wasu ƙungiyoyin dama masu tsattsauran ra'ayi suna da asalin wariyar launin fata ko Neo-Nazi, mutane da yawa suna jefa ƙuri'a a gare su saboda suna fushi game da shige da fice ko tattalin arziki. Suna ganin jam'iyyar a matsayin ita kaɗai ce ke ba da mafita mai sauƙi ga matsalolinsu
Tambayoyi Masu Zurfi
6 Shin waɗannan jam'iyyun suna samun mulki ne ko kuma suna samun ƙarin kuri'u ne kawai
Duka biyun A wasu ƙasashe suna cikin gwamnati. A wasu kuma su ne babbar jam'iyyar adawa. Ko da lokacin da ba su yi mulki ba, shahararsu mai girma takan tura jam'iyyun al'ada su ɗauki ra'ayoyinsu
7 Menene bambanci tsakanin jam'iyyar masu ra'ayin jama'a da jam'iyyar dama mai tsattsauran ra'ayi
Ba duk masu ra'ayin jama'a ba ne masu tsattsauran ra'ayi na dama. Ra'ayin jama'a wani salo ne wanda ya ce mutane masu tsarki suna yaƙi da masu mulki masu lalata. Jam'iyyun dama masu tsattsauran ra'ayi galibi suna amfani da wannan salo amma kuma suna da takamaiman manufofi kamar ƙuntata shige da fice da asalin ƙasa. Jam'iyyar masu ra'ayin jama'a ta hagu
