Faransa na neman wani ɗan siyasa da zai iya haɗa masu ra'ayin mazan jiya masu matsakaicin ra'ayi, tsakiya, da masu ra'ayin mazan jiya masu matsakaicin ra'ayi don kayar da ɗan ra'ayin mazan jiya mai tsattsauran ra'ayi Jordan Bardella a zagaye na biyu na zaɓen shugaban ƙasa na 2027. Wannan neman ya sami gaggawa bayan zaɓen kananan hukumomin da suka gabata, inda masu ra'ayin mazan jiya suka ci gaba da riƙe mafi yawan manyan biranen yayin da masu ra'ayin mazan jiya ko kuma ƙungiyar National Rally (RN) mai tsattsauran ra'ayi ta kama ƙananan garuruwa da yawa.
Shekara mai zuwa za ta zama tseren gudu don zaɓar ɗan takara guda ɗaya wanda zai iya fuskantar Bardella, mai shekaru 30, ko kuma mai ba shi shawara, Marine Le Pen, mai shekaru 57, a zagaye na ƙarshe. Le Pen har yanzu ba ta cancanci tsayawa takara ba sai dai idan kotun daukaka kara ta soke hukuncin da aka yanke mata na satar kuɗaɗen EU a watan Yuli.
Kuri'un jin ra'ayin jama'a akai-akai suna nuna ƙungiyar RN mai adawa da shige da fice da kuma rashin amincewa da Tarayyar Turai tana da babban gaba a cikin manufofin jefa ƙuri'a na zagaye na farko. Bardella, shugaban jam'iyyar mai ƙwarewa amma ba shi da gogewa, ya samu kashi 38% a kuri'un jin ra'ayin jama'a. Ban da wani mu'ujiza, yana da kusan tabbacin ya kai zagaye na biyu, wanda ya bar wuri ɗaya kawai ga ɗan takara wanda zai iya haɗa magoya bayan Macron na masu ra'ayin mazan jiya da na tsakiya yayin da zai jawo hankalin 'yan majalissar gurguzu, masu ra'ayin mazan jiya, masu kishin ƙasa, har ma da masu ra'ayin mazan jiya masu tsattsauran ra'ayi.
Masu ra'ayin mazan jiya har yanzu sun rabu sosai tsakanin shugaban ƙungiyar France Unbowed mai tsattsauran ra'ayi Jean-Luc Mélenchon da sauran ƙungiyoyin masu ra'ayin mazan jiya na tsakiya. Yiwuwar su haɗu a bayan ɗan takara ɗaya mai ci gaba yana kusan sifili. Mélenchon, mai shekaru 74, ya ƙara tsagewa yayin yaƙin neman zaɓen kananan hukumomi, yana fuskantar zargin kyamar Yahudawa da ƙin nisantar da kansa daga wata ƙungiyar 'yan tayar da kayar baya da ke da alaƙa da kisan wani ɗan gwagwarmayar ra'ayin mazan jiya mai tsattsauran ra'ayi. Ya nuna alamar zai sake tsayawa takarar shugaban ƙasa a shekara mai zuwa.
Kuri'un jin ra'ayin jama'a sun nuna Mélenchon zai iya raba kuri'un masu ra'ayin mazan jiya da yawa don hana duk wani ɗan takara na ra'ayin mazan jiya daga zagaye na biyu, duk da haka ba shi da isasshen goyon baya don isa can sai dai idan masu ra'ayin mazan jiya na tsakiya ma sun rabu. Bincike ya nuna Bardella zai iya kayar da Mélenchon cikin sauƙi a zagaye na biyu, saboda yawancin masu ra'ayin tsakiya da masu ra'ayin mazan jiya masu matsakaicin ra'ayi za su ƙi jefa ƙuri'a.
A bangaren masu ra'ayin mazan jiya na tsakiya, babu wani ɗan takara na halitta da ya fito, ko da yake duka Raphaël Glucksmann, mai shekaru 46, da tsohon shugaban ƙasa François Hollande, mai shekaru 71, suna yin la'akari da tsayawa takara. Glucksmann, wanda ya jagoranci yaƙin neman zaɓen Majalisar Tarayyar Turai na 2024 na 'yan gurguzu, yana jan hankalin ƙwararrun ma'aikatan birane amma yana fuskantar wahala tare da masu jefa ƙuri'a na aiki da na karkara. Babban raunin Hollande shi ne shugabancinsa da ba a so na 2012-2017, wanda ya sa ya ƙi sake tsayawa takara.
A bangaren masu ra'ayin mazan jiya na tsakiya, tsohon firaminista Édouard Philippe, mai shekaru 55, ya ga damarsa ta tashi bayan zaɓen kananan hukumomi, inda aka sake zaɓe shi a matsayin magajin garin Le Havre. Kuri'un jin ra'ayin jama'a na baya-bayan nan sun nuna zai iya kayar da Bardella a zagaye na biyu cikin kunkuntar, wanda ya sanya shi cikin matsayi na farko mai haɗari. Duk da haka, siyasar Faransa, kamar tseren Tour de France, da wuya a ga wanda ya yi gaba da fara a ƙarshe ya yi nasara. Tare da yanayin jama'a na bacin rai da adawa da kafafen siyasa tun kafin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya tsananta saboda yaƙin Iran, yana iya zama mafi aminci a kasance a waje a wannan matakin maimakon wanda za a doke.
Maimakon yin amfani da ƙarfinsa na zaɓen kananan hukumomi, Philippe ya jinkirta ƙaddamar da yaƙin neman zaɓe na ƙasa, yana zaɓen jira har bayan lokacin rani. Yana mai da hankali kan ayyukansa na magajin gari yayin da yake yin tsokaci lokaci-lokaci kan al'amuran ƙasa da na duniya don ci gaba da kasancewa mai mahimmanci. Ana ɗaukarsa a matsayin "a cikin ajiyar Jamhuriyar" (a kan kira don jamhuriya). Duk da haka, wannan ya bar damar wasu masu begen masu ra'ayin mazan jiya na tsakiya su ci gaba. Mai buri shugaban jam'iyyar Renaissance ta tsakiya, Gabriel Attal mai shekaru 37—wani tsohon firaminista—yana shirya takarar shugaban ƙasa wanda zai iya raba ƙungiyar tsakiya ta Macron da ta riga ta raunana, ko da yake kuri'un jin ra'ayin jama'a sun nuna ya bi Philippe da nisa.
Tsohon firaminista Dominique de Villepin, yanzu mai shekaru 72, shi ma yana la'akari da tsayawa takarar shugaban ƙasa a 2027. Ana ganinsa a matsayin mutum mai ƙarfin hali tun lokacin da yake ministan harkokin waje yana adawa da mamayar Amurka ta Iraki a Majalisar Dinkin Duniya a 2003, tun daga lokacin ya yi aiki a matsayin mai ba da shawara ga ƙungiyar saka hannun jari ta China. A bara, ya koma siyasar Faransa ta hanyar kafa wata ƙaramar jam'iyya mai suna Humanist France don tallafawa burinsa na shugaban ƙasa.
Bruno Retailleau, mai shekaru 65, wanda ke jagorantar abin da ya rage na tsohuwar jam'iyyar Gaullist mai ƙarfi, wanda a yanzu ake kira Les Républicains, ya sanar da takararsa a watan Fabrairu. Dan siyasa mai ra'ayin mazan jiya, Katolika, mai bin doka da oda wanda ya yi ƙoƙari don ƙarin ƙarfin sarrafa shige da fice a matsayin ministan cikin gida na Macron, yana fatan tabbatar da nadin nasa ta hanyar zaben jama'a na cikin gida a wannan watan. Amma yana fuskantar gasa daga abokin hamayyarsa na dogon lokaci, Laurent Wauquiez, mai shekaru 51, shugaban majalisar jam'iyyar, da kuma sauran masu begen Gaullist.
Wauquiez ya ba da shawarar gudanar da zaɓen fidda gwani don zaɓar ɗan takara ɗaya daga tsakiya zuwa ra'ayin mazan jiya mai tsattsauran ra'ayi (ban da RN), amma har yanzu ƙananan mutane ne kawai kamar ɗan gwagwarmayar ra'ayin mazan jiya mai tsattsauran ra'ayi Sarah Knafo, mai shekaru 32, da abokiyar hamayyarta ta Musulunci Éric Zemmour, mai shekaru 67, suka nuna sha'awar. Philippe ya yi watsi da ra'ayin a matsayin marar gaskiya. Yayin da zaɓen fidda gwani ya kasance abubuwan haɗin kai ga masu ra'ayin mazan jiya na tsakiya da na tsakiya, siyasar Faransa da ke ƙara rarrabuwa da kuma rarrabuwa sun rage tasirinsu.
A halin yanzu, wasu tsofaffin ƴan siyasa suna amfani da bayyanar talabijin don tallata kansu a matsayin masu yuwuwar "hommes providentiels" (mutane masu ceto). Thierry Breton, mai shekaru 71, ya dace da tsarin wanda ba na cikin gida ba tare da babban jan hankali. A matsayinsa na kwamishinan EU, ya yi ƙoƙari don aiwatar da dokokin fasaha da ƙarin kariyar Turai kafin a kore shi daga Shugaban Hukumar Ursula von der Leyen, wanda ba a so a Faransa. Ya yi sabani da Elon Musk kan dokokin fasaha kuma an hana shi shiga Amurka a lokacin mulkin Trump. A farkon aikinsa, ya yi aiki a matsayin Babban Jami'in Gudanarwa na kamfanonin fasaha da na sadarwa da kuma a matsayin ministan kuɗi a ƙarƙashin Shugaba Jacques Chirac. Duk da haka, ba shi da nasa injiniyancin siyasa.
Zaɓen ɗan takara ɗaya don hana RN shiga fadar Élysée har yanzu wani abin mamaki ne da 'yan siyasar Faransa da alama ba za su iya warwarewa ba. Yawancin 'yan takara da suka fafata a zagaye na farko maimakon su haɗu a bayan ɗan takara mafi ƙarfi, yana da yuwuwar Bardella ya zama shugaban ƙasa na gaba.
Paul Taylor babban baƙo ne a Cibiyar Manufofin Turai.
**Tambayoyin da ake yawan yi**
Tambayoyin da ake yawan yi game da Zaɓen Faransa da Jordan Bardella
**Tambayoyi na Matakin Farko**
1. Wanene Jordan Bardella?
Jordan Bardella shi ne Shugaban Rassemblement National, babbar jam'iyyar ra'ayin mazan jiya mai tsattsauran ra'ayi ta Faransa. Shi ne babban ɗan takaran jam'iyyar don zaɓen 'yan majalisa na gaggawa mai zuwa kuma babban mutum tare da Marine Le Pen.
2. Me ya sa ake ɗaukarsa a matsayin mai wuyar tsayawa a yanzu?
Kuri'un jin ra'ayin jama'a na yanzu sun nuna jam'iyyarsa tana da babban gaba. Haɗin rashin gamsuwa da Shugaba Macron, damuwar tattalin arziki, da batutuwan shige da fice sun haɓaka shaharar RN. 'Yan adawa suma sun rabu tsakanin jam'iyyun masu ra'ayin mazan jiya da na tsakiya da yawa.
3. Me ake nufi da cewa filin cunkoson 'yan takara na iya ba da zaɓe ga masu ra'ayin mazan jiya mai tsattsauran ra'ayi?
A tsarin jefa ƙuri'a na Faransa mai zagaye biyu, idan 'yan takara da yawa daga jam'iyyu daban-daban suka raba kuri'u a zagaye na farko, zai iya ba da damar RN—tare da tarin goyon bayanta—ta zo ta farko. Wannan yana sa wasu jam'iyyu su yi wahala su haɗu a bayan abokin hamayya ɗaya a zagaye na biyu mai mahimmanci.
4. Menene Rassemblement National?
Tsohon sunanta Front National, RN jam'iyya ce ta kishin ƙasa da jama'a ta Faransa. Babban manufofinta sun haɗa da rage yawan shige da fice sosai, ba da fifikon 'yan ƙasar Faransa ayyuka da fa'idodi, da ƙara bin doka da oda.
**Tambayoyi na Ci gaba da Dabarun**
5. Menene gaban jamhuriya kuma shin zai iya hana Bardella?
Gaban jamhuriya dabarar al'ada ce inda jam'iyyun tsakiya da na tsakiya suka janye 'yan takaransu kuma suka bukaci masu jefa ƙuri'arsu su goyi bayan duk wanda ke takara da masu ra'ayin mazan jiya mai tsattsauran ra'ayi a zagaye na biyu. Tasirinsa yanzu yana cikin tambaya saboda wasu jam'iyyu suna da shakkar yin haɗin gwiwa da juna.
6. Ta yaya Sabuwar Gaban Jama'a za ta iya shafar tseren?
Ƙaddamarwar Sabuwar Gaban Jama'a na baya-bayan nan, wanda ya haɗa 'yan gurguzu, masu kishin ƙasa, 'yan gurguzu, da masu ra'ayin mazan jiya mai tsattsauran ra'ayi na France Unbowed, ƙoƙari ne kai tsaye na ƙarfafa ƙuri'un adawa da RN. Nasararta ta dogara ne akan ko za ta iya gabatar da haɗin gwiwa guda ɗaya da kuma tattara masu jefa ƙuri'a fiye da yadda aka yi a baya.
7. Menene manyan raunukan Bardella ko raunuka?
Masu suka suna nuna ƙarancin shekarunsa da ƙarancin gogewar gwamnati. Wasu daga cikin shawarwarin manufofinsa, musamman kan batutuwan tattalin arziki kamar barin kasuwar wutar lantarki ta EU, masana sun yi tambaya game da yuwuwar farashinsu da rikitarwa. Hakanan horon jam'iyya na cikin gida na iya zama abin tambaya.
