We’re seeing what happens to someone who’s desperate to dominate but just can’t. Iran isn’t likely to back down. It can handle the economic pressure of a blockade better than Donald Trump can handle the political pressure from rising gas prices—now nearly $4.50 a gallon on average—followed soon by higher food prices.
His looming failure in Iran isn’t just a major geopolitical loss for the United States; it’s a personal crisis for Trump. Those rising prices, along with an increasingly unpopular war, make it more likely that Democrats will take back the House and maybe even the Senate in the upcoming midterms.
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Again, this isn’t just a political defeat for the Republican Party—it’s a personal crisis for Trump. His ego can’t handle a humiliating loss, as we saw after the 2020 election. His need to bully, dominate, and force submission is so deeply wired in his insecure mind that the defeats he’s now facing—from Iran and from Democrats—are already triggering explosions.
He’s posting more wildly than ever—attacking, insulting, mocking, threatening. On Sunday, Trump posted that Democrats had “RIGGED the 2020 Presidential Election. GET TOUGH REPUBLICANS – THEY’RE COMING, AND THEY’RE COMING FAST! They’re no good for our Country, they almost destroyed it, and we don’t want to let that happen again!” He demanded that Republicans “approve all of the necessary Safeguards we need for Elections to protect the American Public during the upcoming Midterms.”
More of his posts are bizarre AI-generated tributes to himself—his godlike powers, his idealized physique, and his self-image of total control. On Friday night, he posted an AI-generated image of himself, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, and Doug Burgum, all shirtless with young bodies, standing in the reflecting pool in front of the Lincoln Memorial, along with an unidentified woman in a bikini.
Minutes later, he posted an image of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries holding a baseball bat, with a caption calling Jeffries “low IQ,” “a THUG,” and “a danger to our Country.” On Tuesday, he posted AI-generated images of Joe Biden on one knee with the caption “COWARDS KNEEL,” Barack Obama with the caption “TRAITORS BOW,” and himself with his fist raised and the caption “LEADERS LEAD.”
Facing two major failures, Trump is frantically looking for other ways to assert dominance. His mouth—never under control—is now in full diarrhea mode. He’s even back to attacking the pope, accusing him of “endangering a lot of Catholics and a lot of people,” adding, “but I guess if it’s up to the pope, he thinks it’s just fine for Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”
His thin-skinned vindictiveness is beyond anything we’ve seen before, and that’s saying a lot. Last week, after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the US was “being humiliated by the Iranian leadership,” Trump repeatedly attacked and mocked Merz. Then the Defense Department said it was pulling 5,000 troops out of Germany, and Trump said he was raising tariffs on European cars and trucks to 25% (from 15%).
He’s becoming more and more obsessed with monuments to himself—his ballroom, his arch, his so-called “garden of heroes,” his Trump-embossed passports, his image on 24k gold commemorative coins, and his name plastered or etched all over Washington. His plans for self-monuments are getting bigger by the day—more grotesque, more grandiose, and more expensive. Senate Republicans just proposed an extra $1 billion for Trump’s ballroom, which, remember, was supposed to “cost taxpayers nothing.”
He’s even directed the Treasury to announce that his own signature—yes, the same one that appears in a book of birthday greetings for Jeffrey Epstein—will replaceThe treasurer’s name will now appear on all new U.S. paper currency for the first time in history, marking the first time a sitting president’s name has been on circulating cash.
His thirst for revenge is also growing. Last week, the Department of Justice launched another criminal case against former FBI director James Comey—whose earlier indictment was thrown out by the courts—for posting a picture of seashells spelling “86 47” on Instagram a year ago. Trump is also pushing the justice department to restart its criminal investigation of Jerome Powell and to go after former joint chiefs of staff chair Mark Milley and others he considers “enemies.”
Facing two major failures—Iran and losing control of Congress—Trump is desperately looking for other ways to show his power. On Tuesday, his education department announced a civil rights investigation into Smith College for admitting transgender students. On Thursday, Trump demanded that Hakeem Jeffries be charged with “INCITING VIOLENCE,” linking the attempted shooting at the White House correspondents’ dinner to Jeffries’ call for a “maximum warfare” redistricting campaign in response to Republican gerrymandering.
No matter what happens in Iran, he’ll claim victory. That will be hard to pull off convincingly when gas prices stay above $4 a gallon, but he’ll certainly try.
What if Democrats win control of one or both chambers of Congress in the midterms and he claims they lost or cheated? The country barely survived the last time Trump’s fragile ego faced a major defeat.
We’ll also have to deal with Trump as a lame-duck president who can no longer dominate and demand submission like he used to. Will he try to stay in power beyond his second term to avoid that?
The man is unwell. Seriously unwell. Lame-duck presidents usually fade away, but injured dictators can be dangerous.
Robert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, is a professor of public policy emeritus at the University of California, Berkeley. He is a Guardian US columnist and his newsletter is at robertreich.substack.com. His new book, Coming Up Short: A Memoir of My America, is out now in the US and the UK.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs addressing the idea that a failure in Iran would represent both a personal and political crisis for Donald Trump
BeginnerLevel Questions
Q Why is Iran such a big deal for Trump personally
A He personally tore up the nuclear deal that Obama made calling it the worst deal ever He promised he would get a better deal If he fails to stop Irans nuclear progress or gets dragged into a war it proves his better deal strategy was a failure which is a direct blow to his reputation as a dealmaker
Q What does political crisis mean in this context
A It means his standing with voters and his own party collapses He ran on no new wars and America First If Iran causes a war or a major economic crisis Republicans and independents would blame him for being reckless
Q How could Iran actually hurt Trump politically
A If Iran attacks US troops or allies Trump would look weak for not deterring them If he bombs Iran in response he breaks his promise to end endless wars Either outcome loses him support from both antiwar and promilitary voters
Q What was Trumps Maximum Pressure policy
A It was a strategy of severe economic sanctions to choke Irans oil sales The goal was to force Iran to the negotiating table If Iran builds a nuclear bomb despite these sanctions it means the pressure failed
AdvancedLevel Questions
Q Why is this considered a personal crisis for Trump not just a policy failure
A Trump has a personal brand built on winning and intimidation The Iran deal was a signature Obama achievement destroying it was a personal victory lap If Iran gets a nuke or attacks Israel it proves Trumps judgment was worse than Obamas which is a deep psychological blow to his selfimage as the ultimate negotiator
Q What specific scenario would be the worst political crisis for Trump
A A scenario where Iran resumes highlevel uranium enrichment and the US has to choose between accepting a nuclear Iran or launching a costly war Either choice splits his base and hands Democrats a massive campaign issue
