To call Yerevan—a charming city of liberal values wrapped in imposing Soviet architecture—the center of the world would be an exaggeration. But Armenia’s claim that it could become a strategic crossroads of the Eurasian landmass is sounding less and less far-fetched. As the former Soviet republic heads to the polls on June 7 for national elections, it finds itself caught in a five-way tug-of-war between Russia, the United States, Turkey, Europe, and Azerbaijan.
Part of the interest comes from the possibility of ending Armenia’s conflict with its neighbor Azerbaijan—and the chance this offers for Armenia to break out of its physical isolation and join the “middle corridor,” a vital trade route linking western China and Europe while bypassing both Russia’s northern corridor and the Suez Canal.
Armenia’s prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, has claimed that opening its borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan could transform not just Armenia but the entire South Caucasus. Once these borders are open and peace is secured, he said, it would be as if Armenia’s geographical position had itself changed. The shortest route between east and west, he argued, runs through Armenia.
Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said the government’s goal is to turn Armenia’s geography into a strategic asset. “The challenge after decades is how to become a bridge rather than an obstacle. So this is what we are now trying to do in Armenia. Somehow we have come to understand that we can connect Europe with Central Asia, with the far east, with India, China, and this, in turn, can not only be a way to save our existence, our sovereignty, but also guarantee our further peaceful prosperity.”
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The so-called Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (Tripp)—linking Europe and Asia and built across Armenian territory as part of a peace deal with Baku—would be just one piece of this new connectivity puzzle.
This geopolitical vision—the heart of what Pashinyan is offering for his third consecutive term—is also partly about Armenia’s future identity. It turns the election into a decision on whether to back Pashinyan’s call for what he calls “Real Armenia,” as opposed to a historical Armenia obsessed with lost lands and old grievances.
The Real Armenia doctrine requires making a painful peace with neighboring Azerbaijan and pivoting away from Russia toward the EU—something Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party describes as a “more diversified foreign policy.” But it also stirs controversy, such as firing the director of the Armenian genocide museum for giving JD Vance a book on Azerbaijan massacres, or removing the image of Mount Ararat—a national symbol, though it lies in present-day Turkey—from Armenia’s passport stamps.
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US vice-president JD Vance and second lady Usha Vance visit the Tsitsernakaberd Armenian Genocide Memorial in Yerevan. Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
Early polls suggest Civil Contract may be on track to win—a remarkable achievement for a party that oversaw two humiliating military defeats at the hands of Azerbaijan in 2020 and 2023. The second defeat involved the overnight forced displacement of 100,000 Armenians from the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. The displaced refugees now live in Yerevan and fear for their heritage. Nineteen prisoners from that war remain captive in Baku, including the region’s first minister, Ruben Vardanyan, who claims Pashinyan has abandoned their cause.
The election campaign promises to be wild.
With his near-constant Facebook presence and 5 a.m. energy, Pashinyan churns out video content ranging from eating pastries to listening impassively to Russian rock star Zemfira. He also has a tendency to get into heated arguments with voters, accusing opposition leaders of being brainless foreign spies and threatening to eliminate them.
Pashinyan is facing at leastThree pro-Russian nationalist parties are involved, including Stronger Armenia, which is led by Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian-Armenian multi-billionaire. He founded the Tashir Group, a conglomerate with interests in Russia and ownership of Armenia’s electricity network. Last week, Karapetyan accused Prime Minister Pashinyan of trying hallucinogenic mushrooms in China, enjoying them so much that he imported a ton and has been consuming them before government meetings. Pashinyan says he will sue over these claims.
Karapetyan has also promised to create a Ministry of Sex to tackle the country’s demographic decline. In a sign of how business and politics mix, he is fighting against the terms of the nationalization of his electricity network.
Karapetyan was arrested last June after making comments that were seen as supporting a coup attempt by the Armenian church. As a result, he is now running his campaign from what could be described as house—or mansion—arrest. He is barred from becoming a member of parliament because he holds Cypriot and Russian passports. Other members of Stronger Armenia have been arrested for allegedly offering bribes.
Human rights activists, like Kenneth Roth, the former executive director of Human Rights Watch, have suggested that Pashinyan’s populism borders on authoritarianism. They have questioned whether European leaders, such as French President Emmanuel Macron, should be giving him so much support.
Meanwhile, Karapetyan accuses Pashinyan of betraying Armenia by making too many concessions to Azerbaijan. He has warned that if the prime minister is re-elected, “we will not become a province of Russia, but a province of Azerbaijan.” His model is clearly Georgian Dream, the pro-Russian group that has held power in Tbilisi since 2012.
Pashinyan’s allies, like Maria Karapetyan, a member of the standing committee on foreign relations, argue that the pro-Russian nationalist opponents have no real agenda to match “Real Armenia.” She said: “They still hold onto the idea that the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh might have a viable option to return. They propose keeping the issue open on Armenia’s foreign policy agenda. But this is just a recipe for returning to a cycle of conflict. If you don’t have a plan, that just means you have a problem, and that problem will come with a cost—usually Armenia’s sovereignty.”
The final hurdle to ratifying the peace agreement, which was initialed at the White House last August, is Azerbaijan’s demand that Armenia remove a reference in its constitution to the country’s declaration of independence. That document includes a call for unification with Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia says it has already renounced any territorial claims in the initialed peace treaty.
Knowing this is Baku’s major red line, Civil Contract says it will rewrite the constitution, but insists it is not doing so under pressure. The goal is to put this to a referendum by the end of the year. That requires winning a constitutional majority of two-thirds of the parliament’s seats—a tough challenge. When asked if there is a plan B to secure a referendum, Pashinyan says: “We will not give up. Peace and open borders are the right path for Armenia and the whole region.”
Civil Contract’s chances would improve if Azerbaijan made concessions to Armenia before election day. Yerevan has also been waiting for months for Turkey to reopen its border with Armenia, which has been closed since 1993. It has not done so yet. Releasing some of the 19 Armenian prisoners held in Baku would also support Pashinyan’s quiet diplomacy.
Tigran Grigoryan from the Regional Center for Democracy and Security in Yerevan said: “It’s very possible they won’t be able to deliver the new constitution, and then we’ll have a long period of ‘no peace, no war.’ At the same time, Armenian politics will have become more polarized between a…”There’s a pro-Russian opposition and an increasingly authoritarian government. Grigoryan questions how far a weakened Pashinyan could shift away from Moscow toward Europe without triggering Russian retaliation.
Vladimir Putin recently suggested that Armenia hold a referendum on whether to join the EU or the Russian-led Eurasian Union. The Russian president is raising this issue before the elections—knowing that EU membership is still a distant possibility—to introduce a divisive topic that benefits pro-Russian candidates.
So far, Russia has only sent subtle signals of its disapproval of Armenia’s pro-European direction, like banning imports of Jermuk, an Armenian mineral water. Grigoryan says a more serious threat to Moscow’s influence in Armenia—and a possible red line—would be nationalizing the debt-ridden, Russian-owned railways.
Once Russia is less focused on Ukraine, Putin could, for example, end subsidies on cheap Russian gas imports, or even, as a last resort, cut off the supply entirely.
Macron, who visited Armenia this month for a state visit and a meeting of the European Political Community, accused Russia of betrayal not just in Ukraine. Referring to Russia’s failure to help Armenia during the Nagorno-Karabakh war, he said: “Russia was not there [for Armenia]—no more than it was for Venezuela, Syria, or Iran.” Pashinyan even warmly shook hands with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and the two spoke in English, not Russian—a quiet declaration of independence that angered Moscow.
Maria Karapetyan denies that her party’s turn toward Europe is an illusion that misleads voters. She said: “We are simply leaving behind a mindset where we looked to Russia as our savior. So we’re not rushing into a new dynamic thinking the European Union will solve all our problems. My party believes we shouldn’t look for saviors. It’s fine with us that no one wants to save us.”
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs about the concept of Armenia as a meeting point between East and West structured to cover different levels of understanding
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does A bridge not a barrier mean in this context
It means Armenia could act as a connector between different cultures economies and political systems instead of being a closedoff or isolated country
2 Why is Armenia considered a potential meeting point
Because of its geography It sits at the crossroads of Eastern Europe and Western Asia with historical trade routes passing through it It also has cultural ties to both the Christian West and the Islamic East
3 Would this make Armenia a member of both the EU and Russias alliances
Not necessarily Being a meeting point means facilitating trade and dialogue not joining all sides Armenia would try to keep good relations with both blocs without being fully absorbed by either
4 How could Armenia benefit from this role
It could become a regional hub for logistics transportation and diplomacy This would bring foreign investment create jobs and increase its political importance on the world stage
5 Isnt this idea blocked by the conflict with Azerbaijan
Yes thats the biggest obstacle Closed borders with two of its four neighbors make it hard to be a physical bridge A peace deal is a prerequisite
IntermediateLevel Questions
6 What are the main economic benefits of Armenia being a bridge
Armenia could earn transit fees from pipelines railways and highways connecting the Persian Gulf to the Black Sea It could also become a center for crossborder banking tech outsourcing and reexporting goods
7 What are the biggest risks of this strategy
The main risk is becoming a pawn in larger geopolitical games If tensions rise between the West and RussiaIran Armenia could be pressured to choose sides losing its neutral bridge status
8 How does Armenias Crossroads of Peace project relate to this idea
Its the Armenian governments official plan to reopen regional transport links It proposes new roads railways and border checkpoints specifically designed to turn the country into a transit hub
9 What role does the Armenian diaspora play in this
The global diaspora
