Discussions are reportedly underway about which former European leaders should represent the EU in any peace talks with Russia. Names like Angela Merkel, Mario Draghi, and Sauli Niinistö, the former president of Finland, have come up as possible envoys. While this is essentially meaningless—since there are no negotiations happening—the story highlights a broader truth about the Ukraine war and Europe’s role.
Like other European discussions on Ukraine before it, this one feels abstract. For example, Europe planned to send a “reassurance force” to Ukraine if a ceasefire brokered by Donald Trump were to happen. There’s also talk of a possible maritime initiative in the Strait of Hormuz, should a deal between the US, Israel, and Iran bring that war to a definitive end. None of these plans have been carried out, because the scenarios they’re based on haven’t materialized. Similarly, there’s no imminent negotiation with Russia for an envoy to attend. The war in Ukraine is still raging, as Russia’s weekend bombardment of Kyiv with its hypersonic “Oreshnik” ballistic missile—capable of carrying nuclear warheads—shows. And as Lithuanians rushing to shelters after a drone alert remind us, a broader hybrid war between Russia and Europe is already happening.
Even if this empty European talk about which steady hand could negotiate with Vladimir Putin is premature, it reveals a deeper truth about what’s going on. I was in Kyiv a few weeks ago, and I’m looking forward to going back next month. I haven’t felt such grounded confidence there since late 2022.
Ukrainians have no illusions. They’ve endured another brutal winter, with Russia destroying much of their energy infrastructure, leaving millions in freezing cold for months. They expect another terrible winter ahead; many fear Moscow will also target water supplies. Ukrainians have come to terms with the US betrayal, as Trump openly sides with Putin. They take it as a given that US military support—which has shrunk since Trump returned to office—won’t come back.
They also assume that the temporary US suspension of sanctions on Russian oil will become permanent. More broadly, they don’t believe the war will end soon. In fact, most think—as I do—that as long as Putin remains in power, it will continue. Nor do Ukrainians believe they can retake large parts of the territories Russia occupies under current conditions. That opportunity hasn’t come since September 2022, when Ukrainian forces recaptured Kharkiv and much of Kherson. Since then, it’s been a bloody war of attrition, with Russia advancing at a snail’s pace.
Yet Ukrainians also see that the snail is moving slower and slower, almost grinding to a halt—even as Russian casualties rise by 20,000, 30,000, or more each month. And the cracks in Russia’s economy are becoming more visible. Russia’s economy is now so focused on war that almost every other industrial sector has shrunk or disappeared. This doesn’t mean Putin will stop—quite the opposite. Ukrainians are well aware of the vast resources being poured into Russia’s war machine, especially for producing missiles and drones.
But this only boosts Ukrainians’ confidence in their ability to keep resisting. So do the remarkable advances in Ukraine’s defense industry, especially in drone technology. While four years ago Ukraine relied entirely on foreign military support, today about 60% of the military capabilities used by Ukrainian forces are made domestically. The line of European defense companies wanting to partner with Ukrainian firms keeps growing.And, as Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s trip to the Gulf during the Iran war shows, interest in Ukraine’s defense expertise goes far beyond Europe. Ukrainians now feel confident that European governments won’t abandon them—a confidence that grew after Viktor Orbán, who had become Putin’s mouthpiece and Trojan horse in Brussels, was ousted. This isn’t about believing in European goodwill or solidarity. In fact, Kyiv is increasingly frustrated with how slow the EU membership process is.
Friedrich Merz’s latest proposal—giving Ukraine a non-voting “associate membership” to improve on an earlier Franco-German idea of “symbolic membership”—hasn’t gone over well in Kyiv. President Zelenskyy’s response to the first proposal was harsh, to say the least. Still, Ukrainians sense that Europeans will stand by them, based on a clear-eyed view of where Europe’s own interests lie. And that’s proving true in practice, with approval of a €90 billion package for Ukraine over the next two years, backed by the EU budget. The US has stepped back, and Europeans have stepped up.
That brings us back to talk of a European envoy. As empty as it is, it reveals a stark truth: in the Ukraine war, the US no longer holds the cards. Trump gave them up when he betrayed Kyiv and the rest of Europe. But together, Ukraine and Europe have leverage—and they’re starting to see it.
Nathalie Tocci is a Guardian Europe columnist
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Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on the topic Angela Merkel wont be negotiating with Putin but the rumour points to a real truth about the Ukraine war
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 Is Angela Merkel actually going to negotiate with Putin to end the Ukraine war
No The rumour is false Merkel has clearly stated she is not involved in any negotiations and has no plans to mediate
2 Why did people even think Merkel would negotiate
Because she was Germanys chancellor for 16 years and had a close working relationship with Putin during that time Many people assumed she could use that history to convince him to end the war
3 What is the real truth the rumour points to
The real truth is that the West is struggling to find a credible highlevel figure who can actually talk to Putin and be taken seriously The rumour highlights a desperate need for a diplomatic offramp not that Merkel is actually available
4 Did Merkels past policies make this war more likely
Many critics argue that her policy of business as usual with Russia made Germany dependent on Russian gas and gave Putin leverage This is a major reason why her involvement is now seen as complicated
5 Is it a bad thing that Merkel isnt negotiating
It depends on your perspective Supporters say shes retired and shouldnt be dragged back in Critics say her past approach to Russia makes her the wrong person to be tough on Putin now
AdvancedLevel Questions
6 What specific real truth about the Ukraine war does this rumour reveal
It reveals that the current diplomatic framework has no obvious Russia whisperer Western leaders have either been too confrontational or too inconsistent to build trust with Moscow The rumour exposes a gap in credible backchannel diplomacy
7 How did Merkels legacy with the Minsk Agreements affect this situation
The Minsk II agreement was supposed to end the war in Donbas Merkel later admitted it was a way to buy time for Ukraine to build its army not a genuine peace deal This means Putin sees her as a deceiver not a neutral broker which makes her useless for negotiations now
