After years of legal battles, Spain’s constitutional court is expected this week to clear the final hurdle for former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont to return after nearly nine years in exile. Puigdemont fled in 2017 to avoid jail for his role in the failed and illegal independence bid, for which nine of his colleagues were imprisoned with sentences of up to 13 years, though all were released within three years. If, on 6 October, the court rules as expected that the misuse of public funds charge is covered by the amnesty law passed by the Spanish government in 2024, Puigdemont should be free to return without fear of arrest. But will he come back like Lenin, leaping from the train in St Petersburg to revive a faltering revolution, or as yesterday’s man, the last of the Romanovs, headed for the dustbin of history?
Whether he returns in triumph or, as he left, in the boot of a car, Catalonia today is very different from the place he left nine years ago. First, the political climate has changed beyond recognition. The fervour of mass demonstrations and constant conflict and provocation between Barcelona and Madrid has given way to cooperation. Since 2024, the region has been governed by the Socialists’ Party of Catalonia (PSC), the first time since 1980 that a non-nationalist party has been in charge. Led by Salvador Illa, Spain’s health minister during the Covid epidemic, it has ushered in an era of entente with Madrid, where the Socialist Workers’ Party, to which the PSC serves as a regional section, is also in power.
Another change is that the young people who were once fired up about independence are not only older now but face more pressing issues than sovereignty, mainly jobs and housing. Wages are low, rents high, and mortgages mostly out of reach. As a result, 82% of Catalonia’s 18- to 30-year-olds still live with their parents. On Friday, Puigdemont’s Junts per Catalunya (Together for Catalonia) voted down the government’s progressive housing proposals, a move that won’t endear them to young Catalans or their parents.
The other big change since 2017 is demographic. When Puigdemont went into exile, 13.8% of the Catalan population was foreign-born; today the figure is 18.7%. This shift is most marked in the capital, Barcelona, where 32% of residents are immigrants representing 118 nationalities, a figure that rises to 50% in the 12-35 age group. For nationalists, this raises the question: who is a Catalan? Jordi Pujol, the Catalan president from 1980 to 2003, insisted that a Catalan was anyone who lived and worked in Catalonia. Things are a little different now. Out of the disillusionment of the independence movement has risen Aliança Catalana, a far-right nationalist party whose leader says “there isn’t room for everyone” in Catalonia. Specifically, there would be no room for Muslims, not even those born in Spain, which by implication would include, for example, the Barcelona and Spain football star Lamine Yamal. This has dragged Junts, traditionally the party of the Catalan bourgeoisie, to the right as those on the ethno-nationalist margins gravitate towards the unselfconsciously racist Aliança, whose positions on sovereignty are otherwise barely distinguishable from Junts’.
Over the past 25 years, Catalonia, and above all Barcelona, has gone from being a bicultural, bilingual Catalan-Spanish society to one that is multicultural and multilingual. Puigdemont’s pitch is based on identity and a historical sense of grievance at Spain’s perceived abuse of and disdain for Catalonia, a sentiment shared by many, perhaps most, Catalans. This ingrained sense of difference and grievance isn’t going away, but his vision may prove a harder sell than it was 10 years ago. As demography changes, so does identity. Immigrants now make up nearly a fifth of the population, have their own identity issues, and have no particular beef with Spain. As for independence, support never did reach 50%, and now hovers in the low 40s. Besides, as people migratIn search of a better or perhaps more interesting life, it is increasingly likely that the parents of those living in Catalonia will come from different countries, and their sense of national identity is multiple or simply not that important. Puigdemont’s lifelong dream is for Catalonia to take its place among the world’s independent nation states. Yet perhaps he is a man out of time, and the nation state he craves, with its monocultural, monolingual badge of identity, has passed its sell-by date.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Carles Puigdemonts Potential Return to a Changed Catalonia
1 Who is Carles Puigdemont
Hes a Catalan politician who served as president of Catalonia from 2016 to 2017 He fled to Belgium after the regions failed independence bid and has lived in exile ever since
2 What is he exiled for
Spanish authorities accuse him of sedition and misuse of public funds for his role in the 2017 independence referendum and declaration which Spains courts ruled illegal
3 Why might he return now
Spain passed an amnesty law in 2024 that could clear the legal cases against him and other separatist figures potentially allowing him to come home without arrest
4 What was Catalonia like when he left
In 2017 the independence movement was at its peak Hundreds of thousands protested the regional parliament declared independence and Madrid imposed direct rule
5 How has Catalonia changed since then
The independence push has lost momentum Support for separation has dropped the movement has split between moderates and hardliners and everyday voters now care more about housing jobs and cost of living
6 Does the amnesty law mean he can return freely
Not automatically Courts still have to apply the law case by case and some judges have questioned or delayed it He could still face legal hurdles
7 What is an amnesty and how is it different from a pardon
An amnesty wipes out the legal case entirely as if the offense is erased A pardon only cancels the punishment but keeps the conviction on record
8 Why is the amnesty so controversial
Critics say it lets politicians escape accountability for breaking the law Supporters say its necessary to calm tensions and move past a decade of conflict
9 Who is Puigdemonts main rival within the separatist camp
Oriol Junqueras former leader of the Republican Left of Catalonia Junqueras favors negotiation with Madrid while Puigdemonts party Junts takes a harder line
10 What does Puigdemont want to do if he returns
He wants to lead Junts contest regional elections and push again for independence but through what he calls a new strategy He has also floated running
