Nearly five months ago, Donald Trump launched an aggressive war against Iran, claiming the U.S. would achieve a decisive victory within weeks. He and his advisors dismissed any suggestion that they were breaking his repeated campaign promises not to start new conflicts and to end America’s legacy of endless wars, especially in Afghanistan and Iraq.
In early March, just a week into the war, Trump said he would only accept “unconditional surrender” from Iran’s theocratic government. He vowed to destroy much of Tehran’s military, called for a popular uprising, and boasted about overthrowing the regime that came to power after Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution. Of course, Trump’s grand promises turned out to be just another chapter in a long history of American imperial arrogance.
Not to mention that Trump broke several pledges he made to a war-weary American public that he wouldn’t start new wars during his second term. In November 2024, during his election night victory speech in Florida, Trump confidently told Americans: “I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars.”
Now, the ceasefire he negotiated with Tehran has fallen apart, and Trump risks dragging the U.S. into yet another endless war—this time in Iran.
In mid-June, the U.S. and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding that included reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Before Iran shut it down during the war, a fifth of the world’s oil and liquid gas supplies passed through that waterway. The agreement effectively extended a ceasefire reached in early April by 60 days, but it didn’t lead to reopening the crucial waterway because Trump imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ships in the region. Trump said the memo “achieves everything we set out to accomplish,” even though it put off the hardest issues—like limits on Iran’s nuclear program and Tehran’s potential control over the Strait of Hormuz—for future talks.
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“Ships of the World, start your engines,” Trump wrote on social media when he announced the interim deal last month. “Let the oil flow!”
But each side had different interpretations of the agreement, and it fell apart in less than a month. Over the past ten days, tit-for-tat attacks have pushed the region back toward all-out war. Iran fired on oil tankers passing through the strait near Oman’s coast in the southern corridor, which the U.S. military had encouraged ships to use to avoid Iran’s control. The Pentagon has launched daily airstrikes against what it called Iranian command centers, missile and drone launch sites, air defense systems, and communication networks. In recent days, the U.S. also bombed bridges across southern Iran—and Trump has threatened to destroy Iran’s power plants and other civilian infrastructure, which would likely be a war crime.
Tehran has retaliated with missile and drone strikes on U.S. military bases across the Middle East and threatened to renew attacks on the energy infrastructure of its Gulf neighbors. Trump reimposed a blockade on Iranian shipping, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a trickle. Oil prices hit their highest level in a month, passing $90 a barrel, disrupting the global economy again. On Friday, Iranian ballistic missiles struck an airbase in Jordan, killing two U.S. military personnel, with a third missing in action. The Pentagon said another service member was killed on Saturday in northern Iraq, where the U.S. has bases. Since the war began, 17 U.S. service members have been killed and about 430 wounded.
Trump had previously said that killing U.S. personnel would trigger large-scale American retaliation against Iran. It’s yet another way Trump has backed himself into an endless cycle of bombing and military escalation. He has no strategy to turn U.S. military superiority into lasting peace.Trump has struggled to reach a political agreement with Tehran, swinging back and forth for months between pursuing a major deal and threatening to restart a full-scale war. For much of the conflict, the scope of negotiations—and overall US policy toward Iran—seemed to depend on Trump’s shifting mood.
Iran’s regime, on the other hand, survived the assassination of its top leaders and endured weeks of heavy bombing by the US and Israel, two of the world’s most powerful militaries. On February 28, early in the conflict, joint US-Israeli airstrikes killed the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with more than 30 other top Iranian officials. The regime’s remaining leaders quickly installed Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, as the new supreme leader. He is backed by hardline generals from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s most powerful military and economic force.
Iran’s leaders emerged more confident and with greater leverage than before Trump’s ill-fated war. They realized Tehran could hold the global economy hostage by using a weapon far more effective than its missiles and drones: control over the Strait of Hormuz. This allows Iran to disrupt shipments not only of oil and liquefied gas but also key agricultural products like fertilizer.
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Iran also has more economic leverage it could use if Trump decides to resume an all-out war. Tehran could pressure the Houthi militia, its ally that controls large parts of Yemen, to disrupt international shipping through the Red Sea, further destabilizing global energy supplies. After Israel’s invasion of Gaza in 2023, the Houthis began firing missiles and drones at vessels sailing near the Bab el-Mandab strait, where the Red Sea comes closest to Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. Shipping companies rerouted hundreds of vessels around South Africa, raising insurance premiums and adding thousands of miles to a freighter’s journey between Asia and Europe.
For now, the Houthis haven’t fully entered the conflict, but on Monday the militia announced a blockade of Saudi Arabia’s ports and ships. This could put more pressure on energy prices because Saudi Arabia has been exporting millions of barrels of oil through the Red Sea route to bypass Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran can disrupt energy markets in other ways too: it could expand attacks on oil and natural gas infrastructure in its Gulf neighbors, including Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
All of these scenarios would likely cause energy prices to soar and could trigger a global recession. Yet Trump shows little sign of backing away from the brink of a wider war with Iran, which could involve deploying US ground troops and spread into neighboring countries. Trump is falling into a potential forever war of his own making.
Mohamad Bazzi is a Guardian US columnist. He is also director of the Center for Near Eastern Studies and a journalism professor at New York University.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on the topic of Mohamad Bazzis analysis regarding Trump and a potential forever war in Iran
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does forever war mean in this context
A forever war means a prolonged openended military conflict with no clear exit strategy In this case it refers to the US getting stuck in a long costly confrontation with Iran similar to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
2 Did Trump actually start a war with Iran
No there was no fullscale declared war However his administration escalated tensions dramaticallymost notably by killing Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in a drone strike in 2020 This brought the US and Iran to the brink of open conflict
3 What did Mohamad Bazzi say about Trumps Iran policy
Bazzi argues that Trumps maximum pressure campaignwithdrawing from the nuclear deal imposing harsh sanctions and using military threatsactually increased the risk of a forever war He claims this strategy made the US more entangled in the region not less
4 Why would the US get stuck in a war with Iran
Iran has powerful allies and a large dispersed military A direct war would likely spread across the Middle East forcing the US into a long messy conflict with no quick victory
5 Is the forever war already happening
Some analysts say yes The US has been in a lowgrade proxy war with Iran for yearsthrough attacks on oil tankers drone strikes and militia raids Bazzi argues Trumps actions turned this simmering conflict into a more dangerous openended one
AdvancedLevel Questions
6 How did Trumps withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal lead to a forever war
By leaving the deal Trump removed the main diplomatic framework that constrained Irans nuclear program Iran then began enriching uranium again and the US had no legal or diplomatic way to stop it This forced the US to rely solely on military threats raising the risk of escalation
7 What was the significance of the Soleimani assassination in terms of forever war
Sole
