A new mega-poll has found that nearly half of all voters support Andy Burnham’s personal preference to rejoin the European Union after the next election. However, cabinet ministers worried about reopening Brexit divisions are privately urging him to be cautious. The poll by the Messina Group (TMG) found that renegotiating the UK’s relationship with the EU could increase Labour’s vote share by up to seven points if the prime minister offered a fresh referendum in which he campaigned to re-enter the bloc. Almost a third of voters said an in-out referendum would be needed first, while more than one in six felt a general election mandate would be enough, and the same proportion thought parliament could decide. These findings will strengthen the case of those in Downing Street who want to promise at the next election that Labour would at least negotiate over re-entry, which the prime minister has said he wants to see “in his lifetime.”
On Tuesday, Burnham used his first Labour conference speech as leader to announce a review of options for Britain’s future relationship with Europe, and later added that these should include rejoining entirely. However, some Labour MPs are nervous, especially those with constituencies that voted for Brexit, fearing that even testing public support for the move would carry political risk and potentially boost Reform. Two-thirds of cabinet ministers, including Burnham himself, his first secretary Louise Haigh, chancellor John Healey, and foreign secretary Ed Miliband, represent seats that backed Brexit and previously said they would respect the 2016 vote. But public opinion has shifted.
Before Burnham’s speech, several ministers had publicly warned against the move. Lucy Powell, Labour’s deputy leader, said that while the defence and security relationship could be improved, going beyond the EU reset plans inherited from Keir Starmer was “not possible nor desirable.” Trade secretary Jonathan Reynolds said “constitutional questions” around Britain’s EU relationship were causing uncertainty for business. Home secretary Shabana Mahmood said rejoining was “not a simple, straightforward thing” and the costs might be unacceptable.
Downing Street’s strategy appears to focus on those who made big promises on Brexit but failed to deliver, rather than accusing those who voted to leave of making the wrong decision. But the government’s shift in position has caused some anxiety among Burnham’s team. One cabinet minister told the Guardian: “Brexit clearly hasn’t worked and the promises made haven’t been kept, so Andy is right to open up the question of what the future relationship looks like. But he definitely needs to proceed with caution because we don’t want to restoke division.” A second said: “Andy is right to say we need some clarity around our long-term relationship. Security and trade cooperation are higher up the agenda than they were 10 years ago. But whether that adds up to a real desire for big change in the population, I don’t know. My constituents will be cautious.” A third added: “There are obviously different views across cabinet about it, but the Made in Europe agenda means we do need to talk to the EU about what relationship they want with us long term, as what they are currently proposing is very challenging.” Another cabinet source said: “There’s an awareness among a number of cabinet ministers with leave-voting seats that opinions are going to differ and the arguments about the future will have to be carefully made about the national interest.” A fifth said there were genuine questions about the best option on the table. “I’m sceptical if we go back in, about the terms we’d be going back in on, and whether that can really resolve the problems in people’s lives. But if you look at the global context, you cannot start to solve things fopeople without having a closer relationship with the EU.” TMG polled 11,461 people between 12 and 24 September, weighted by referendum result, on seven different options for the UK’s relationship with the EU. The most popular was rejoining, with 49% in favour and 28.5% against.
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The second most popular option was keeping the existing relationship but cutting as many trade barriers as possible – which the government is trying to do with its reset – supported by 48.2%, with 20.9% against. A customs union came next, at 47.1% versus 20.7%.
Joining the single market and associate membership were almost tied – 45.1% and 45.5% of respondents respectively supported them – while sticking with the existing relationship was backed by 42%. The seventh option – the UK moving further away from the EU – was supported by only 27.9%, with 41.2% against.
A plurality of voters – 25.9% – said they wanted the UK to rejoin the EU immediately, while a slightly lower proportion – 22.9% – said it should happen in the next three years, and 8.4% said within the next decade. Another 23% said they did not want a closer relationship at all.
TMG also tested political messaging for each option to see how it could affect Labour’s vote share in an election. It found that Labour’s vote share rose – by between 4.3 and 7.4 percentage points – in all scenarios that led to closer ties, with most of the extra votes coming from the Greens and Lib Dems.
The polling showed that more than two-thirds of voters thought trading with the EU was more important than trading with the US or China, if the UK had to choose. Four in five people want to keep the pound, and a majority want to stay in the ECHR – 53.4% versus 24.2% against.
However, it also found that Brexit arguments over immigration control and sovereignty still resonated.
Senior Downing Street officials have been in contact with thinktanks and pollsters as they look to test public support for the UK rejoining the EU. The TMG research is expected to be shared with the current operation.
Some inside No 10 are nervous, however, that promising to renegotiate entry into the bloc could revive the flagging political fortunes of Nigel Farage, who said on Thursday that Burnham had given him “the biggest boost in my career” by reviving the Brexit debate.
The TMG research found that 29.7% of people thought the UK had been right to leave the EU, while 52.4% said it had been wrong, and 17.9% didn’t know. On whether Brexit had been a success or failure, 12.2% said a success, 54.9% a failure, 23.2% said neither and 9.7% did not know.
Ben Judah, a visiting fellow at Chatham House who was an adviser to David Lammy as foreign secretary, told the Guardian: “These polls are a massive validation of Andy Burnham’s boldness on Europe. There is close to a national consensus that Brexit was not a success.
“Against this background, these results show that Europe as an issue has a unique ability to unite the left and grow the Labour vote share among swing voters. The bolder the stance towards rejoin, the bigger Labour’s reward.”
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of frequently asked questions based on the poll findings regarding the UK rejoining the EU and its potential impact on Labour
Beginner Questions
What exactly did this new poll find
The poll found that roughly half of the UK population now supports rejoining the European Union It also suggested that if the Labour Party openly supported this idea it could win more votes
What is a poll
A poll is a survey where a small group of people are asked their opinions The results are used to guess what the wider population thinks
Does this mean the UK is definitely rejoining the EU
No A poll shows what people think right now but it does not change government policy The UK officially left the EU in 2020 and rejoining would require a long political process
Why would supporting rejoin help Labour
The poll suggests that many voters who currently support other parties might switch to Labour if Labour promised to rejoin It could also motivate younger voters to turn out
Is Labour currently campaigning to rejoin the EU
No The current Labour leadership has said they will not take the UK back into the EU the single market or the customs union They are focusing on improving the current trade deal instead
Advanced Questions
What is the single market and why does it matter for this debate
The single market is a trade agreement that allows goods services money and people to move freely between EU member states Many rejoin supporters want to be in the single market even if they dont want full EU membership Labour currently rules this out
How reliable is a single poll like this
One poll is a snapshot not a guarantee You need to look at the poll of polls to see a trend Also polls can be wrongthey misjudged the 2016 Brexit vote and the 2019 election
What is the difference between rejoin and reform
Rejoin Becoming a full EU member again like before Brexit
Reform Staying outside the EU but changing the current trade deal to reduce paperwork and trade barriers
Labour supports reform not rejoin
Could supporting rejoin actually hurt Labour
Yes While it might win over proE
