Bayan babban zaɓe na Sweden na 2022, shugabannin manyan jam'iyyun Sweden biyu sun yanke shawara masu haɗari. Jimmie Åkesson, shugaban jam'iyyar Sweden Democrats (SD) mai tsattsauran ra'ayi na dama, ya zaɓi ya goyi bayan gwamnatin 'yan tsiraru ta dama ta Firayim Minista Ulf Kristersson na Jam'iyyar Moderate, yayin da Magdalena Andersson, shugabar Social Democrats, ta yanke shawarar yin koyi da "tsarin Danish" a ƙoƙarin dawo da mulki. A duka lokuta biyun, dabarun sun haifar da rashin nasara a zaɓe amma nasara a siyasa.
Bayan babban zaɓen ranar Lahadi, Social Democrats (wanda ake yawan kira S ko Sap), kamar takwarorinsu na Danish, mai yiwuwa za su jagoranci sabuwar gwamnati duk da rashin nasara a zaɓe, inda suka rasa kusan kashi 2% — mafi munin sakamakonsu tun 1908. Komawar jam'iyyar kan mulki sakamako ne kawai na siyasar ƙungiyoyin Sweden da nasarorin abokan haɗin gwiwarta da ake tsammani: Jam'iyyar Hagu (V), Jam'iyyar Green, da Jam'iyyar Center (C), waɗanda suka ƙara goyon bayansu da kashi 1.5%, 1.7%, da 0.4% bi da bi. Tare, wannan ƙungiyar hagu tana da rinjaye na kujeru uku kawai a sabuwar majalisa. Don haka ko da Andersson mai yiwuwa za ta dawo kan mulki, tana kuma cikin matsayi mai rauni sosai.
Yayin da jam'iyyun hagu uku suka yarda kan batutuwan tattalin arziki da zamantakewa da yawa, musamman soke wasu munanan manufofin dama na shekarun baya-bayan nan da ƙara zuba jari a ɓangaren jama'a, suna da ra'ayoyi mabambanta sosai kan batutuwa kamar laifuka da ƙaura. Idan Andersson ta ci gaba da neman tsauraran dokokin ƙaura da danganta laifuka da ƙaura, wannan na iya haifar da tashin hankali mai yawa a cikin haɗin gwiwarta, kwatankwacin waɗanda takwararta ta Danish, Mette Frederiksen, ta fuskanta a gwamnatinta ta farko.
A lokaci guda, ƙaramar Jam'iyyar Center, wacce ta fi kowa nesa da hagu a cikin ƙungiyar hagu, ta ware yiwuwar haɗin gwiwa na hukuma da Jam'iyyar Hagu "mai tsattsauran ra'ayi" kuma za ta so kare kasuwa daga tsoma bakin gwamnati da yawa. Wannan zai ƙara haifar da tashin hankali a cikin ƙungiyar hagu a cikin gwamnatin 'yan tsiraru da ake tsammani. Ganin irin wannan tsari da tashin hankalin cikin gida da ba makawa, rinjaye na kujeru uku kawai zai buƙaci matakan ladabtarwa da kusan ba za a iya samu ba domin gwamnatin 'yan tsiraru ta daɗe tsawon wa'adi.
A ɗaya gefen fagen siyasa, Sweden Democrats sun sami rashin nasararsu ta farko a babban zaɓen majalisa na ƙasa. Duk da haka, babu ƙaramin dalili da za a ɗauka cewa Åkesson zai fuskanci mayar da martani. Na farko, shi ne kawai shugaban da ya fi muhimmanci ga rinjaye na masu jefa ƙuri'a na jam'iyyarsa. Na biyu, dabarun goyon bayansa sun yi aiki: Sweden Democrats yanzu sun zama cikakke a cikin ƙungiyar dama, kamar yadda shugaban Jam'iyyar Moderate (M) Kristersson ya riga ya sanar kafin zaɓen cewa Sweden Democrats za su kasance cikin gwamnatin dama ta gaba. Na uku, kishin ƙasa na jam'iyyar yanzu duk manyan jam'iyyun suna da shi, ko da a cikin sassauci, daga Moderates a dama zuwa Social Democrats a hagu.
Bai kamata mu manta ba cewa yaƙin neman zaɓe na 2022 ya ba da cikakkiyar yanayin siyasa ga Sweden Democrats, tunda batutuwa biyu ne suka mamaye shi: ƙaura da karɓar Sweden Democrats. Kamar yadda muka sani daga wasu zaɓuka (kamar a Netherlands a 2023), lokacin da adawa da ƙaura da karɓar tsattsauran ra'ayi na dama suka mamaye ajandar siyasa, tsattsauran ra'ayi na dama na samun babbar nasara. A wannan lokacin, waɗannan batutuwan har yanzu suna nan, amma ba su mamaye yaƙin neman zaɓe ba — a haƙiƙa, babu wani batu guda da ya mamaye. Bugu da ƙari, an danganta Sweden Democrats da wasu abubuwan kunya kusa da zaɓen, wanda zai iya ƙara rage goyon bayan jam'iyyar. Duk da haka, ta riƙe kashi 78% na masu jefa ƙuri'arta na 2022, fiye da Moderates na tsakiya-dama (59%) da Social Democrats na tsakiya-hagu (73%).
Ko da Andersson na iya ƙoƙarin shawo kan jam'iyyarta, da kanta, cewa "tsarin Danish" ya yi aiki, ya kamata ta fi duba ƙaramar maƙwabciyarta a yamma. Jam'iyyar Social Democratic ta Danish ta kai matakin da ba a taɓa gani ba a zaɓukan ƙasa da na gida (musamman a babban birni, Copenhagen). Kuma ko da Frederiksen ta Denmark mai shawo kan kishin ƙasa ne sosai har shugabannin tsattsauran ra'ayi na dama a wasu ƙasashe suna yaba mata a matsayin abin koyi, duk da haka tsattsauran ra'ayi na dama bai rage shahara sosai ba kamar da — kawai ya ƙara rarrabuwa. Abin sha'awa, yayin da Andersson ta gode wa sassan matasa da ɗalibai saboda aikin da suka yi a jawabinta na daren zaɓe, Social Democrats sun yi muni sosai a tsakanin masu jefa ƙuri'a na farko fiye da sauran masu jefa ƙuri'a gaba ɗaya (21% da 28%). Akasin haka, Hagu da Greens sun yi kyau sosai a tsakanin matasa. Wannan yana nuna wani yanayin da ke faruwa a Turai baki ɗaya: matasa masu jefa ƙuri'a sun fi son jam'iyyun hagu na fili fiye da na tsakiya-hagu. Duk da haka, Social Democrats sun fi shahara a tsakanin 'yan Sweden masu tushen da ba na Turai ba, inda suka sami goyon baya da bai gaza kashi 38% ba daga wannan ɓangaren masu jefa ƙuri'a da ke ƙaruwa. A fili, wannan rukunin ma ba ya neman ƙarin manufofi da maganganun kishin ƙasa. A taƙaice, ko da Social Democrats sun dawo kan mulki godiya ga "tsarin Danish" — wanda shi kansa abin muhawara ne — wannan dabarar za ta kasance haɗari ga sabuwar haɗin gwiwar da kuma makomar zaɓen jam'iyyar. Maimakon ci gaba da zama "matsakaici" ko "mai hankali" madadin Moderates, Andersson ya kamata ta sadaukar da kanta gaba ɗaya ga ajandar siyasa mai ci gaba, a kan batutuwan tattalin arziki da zamantakewa da al'adu. Ta haka, ba kawai za ta sami damar riƙe haɗin gwiwarta tare ba amma tana iya sa jam'iyyarta ta zama mai jan hankali ga sabbin matasa masu jefa ƙuri'a kuma.
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Ga jerin tambayoyin da ake yawan yi dangane da labarin Cas Mudde game da halin da tsattsauran ra'ayin dama na Sweden yake ciki
Tambayoyin Farko
Q Menene wannan labarin ya kunsa
A Yana magana ne kan yadda jam'iyyar tsattsauran ra'ayi ta dama ta Sweden, Sweden Democrats, ta yi muni fiye da yadda ake tsammani a zaɓen 2022 amma har yanzu sua ce mai ƙarfi a siyasar Sweden
Q Su wanene Sweden Democrats
A Jam'iyya ce ta populist ta dama a Sweden An san su da tsauraran ra'ayoyinsu na adawa da ƙaura kuma suna da tushe a cikin ƙungiyar neo-Nazi
Q Menene ma'anar tsattsauran ra'ayi na dama
A Kalma ce ga ƙungiyoyin siyasa masu tsananin ra'ayin mazan jiya kuma galibi masu kishin ƙasa Yawanci suna son iyakance ƙaura kuma suna shakka game da ƙungiyoyin duniya kamar Tarayyar Turai
Q Menene babban sakamakon zaɓen Sweden
A Ƙungiyar dama ta sami rinjaye kaɗan Wannan ƙungiyar ta haɗa da Jam'iyyar Moderate, Christian Democrats, Liberals, da Sweden Democrats Sweden Democrats ba su shiga gwamnati ba amma suna goyon bayanta a majalisa
Q Me ya sa labarin ya ce an raunana tsattsauran ra'ayi na dama
A Domin Sweden Democrats sun sami ƙuri'u kaɗan fiye da yadda yawancin binciken ra'ayi suka yi hasashe Suna fatan zama babbar jam'iyya a ƙungiyar dama amma sun zo na biyu bayan Jam'iyyar Moderate
Q Me ya sa ya ce ba a ci su ba
A Ko da sun rasa wasu goyon baya har yanzu su ne jam'iyya ta biyu mafi girma a Sweden Yanzu suna da babban tasiri kan manufofin gwamnati musamman kan ƙaura da laifuka
Tambayoyin Ci Gaba
Q Menene cordon sanitaire kuma yaya alaƙarsa da Sweden
A Cordon sanitaire dabara ce ta siyasa inda manyan jam'iyyu suka ƙi yin aiki ko haɗin gwiwa da jam'iyyar tsattsauran ra'ayi ta dama A Sweden wannan shingen da aka yi wa Sweden Democrats yanzu ya rushe gaba ɗaya Sauran jam'iyyun dama sun yarda su yi aiki da su wanda hakan ya ba tsattsauran ra'ayi na dama ainihin ikon siyasa
Q Menene Cas Mudde yake nufi da daidaita tsattsauran ra'ayi na dama
