To NATO's eastern border have warned that Russia may be preparing a possible "provocation" in the Baltic states or Poland, aiming to test the unity of the Western military alliance. Western sources also fear that danger could be on the horizon, as the Kremlin faces pressure from Ukraine's long-range attacks on targets near Moscow and St. Petersburg.
On Monday, Latvian intelligence stated: "We see signs that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland." However, they noted it would fall far short of a full-scale attack. A senior political source from another NATO member made a similar statement last week, saying, "We are picking up intelligence" that Vladimir Putin was "planning something against the Baltic states."
They suggested Putin might be willing to test U.S. support for some of NATO's smallest members—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—in a desperate attempt "to roll the dice" as Russia struggles with its invasion of Ukraine.
On Thursday night, Poland's prime minister publicly shared his own concerns. "We also share, without exception, the opinion that the situation is very unstable and various types of escalation can be expected in the coming weeks and months," Donald Tusk said at a press conference after the Eastern Flank summit in Gdansk. "We want to prepare as a group of countries directly exposed to this risk."
Latvian intelligence said Russia is not capable of opening a second front but is considering "hybrid attacks, such as missiles, drones, or other actions designed to send a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems."
Although the warnings seem connected, there was only limited supporting detail, unlike the detailed warnings released by the CIA and MI6 before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. But they come at a time when Russia's advance in Ukraine has stalled, raising questions about whether the Kremlin would turn to alternative strategies to break the deadlock or shift the dynamics in its favor.
Keir Giles, a Russia expert at the Chatham House think tank, said: "Moscow will be looking for ways to disrupt the current trend, through horizontal escalation [spreading the conflict to other countries] or doing something elsewhere. We should not expect Russia to passively lose."
Russia's relative weakness was highlighted this week when drone relay stations in Belarus stopped operating after Ukraine threatened to attack them. Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, had given Belarus a one-week warning last Friday, saying the equipment enabled Russian attacks on his country. One Telegram channel reported that authorities in the Brest and Gomel regions of Belarus had demanded mobile operators dismantle the repeaters because they were interfering with grouse nesting sites.
NATO will hold its annual summit in Ankara, Turkey, this month amid uncertainty about U.S. commitment to the alliance. On Wednesday, Donald Trump said he felt "let down" by European allies who did not allow the U.S. air force to bomb Iran from airfields in their countries.
Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there have been several waves of Russian sabotage and provocative activity, including the planting of firebombs in DHL parcels in the UK, Poland, and Germany in the summer of 2024. Last September, 19 Russian decoy drones crossed into Polish airspace, prompting NATO to scramble jets to try to shoot them down as people in three eastern provinces were told to shelter indoors. Ukraine has gradually developed...They developed a homegrown deep-strike attack capability that can hit targets up to 2,000 kilometers inside Russia. Last week, nearly 200 drones struck several locations in Moscow, and black oil rained down on parts of the Russian capital after a refinery was bombed.
A Western military source said there were concerns that Russia could strike back if Putin felt pressured, as the war moved to the skies over Moscow and St. Petersburg. "I can't lie, that's a dangerous period," they said.
Fears of a possible Russian escalation also emerged in the fall of 2022, when a sudden series of setbacks in Kharkiv province led Western officials to worry that Moscow might even use a nuclear weapon to defend itself. But there was no evidence of steps toward an actual deployment, and the front line stabilized by the end of the year.
**Ofte stillede spørgsmål**
Her er en liste over ofte stillede spørgsmål om den rapporterede mulighed for en russisk provokation i de baltiske stater eller Polen, skrevet i en naturlig, klar tone med direkte svar.
**Spørgsmål på begynderniveau**
1. Hvad betyder provokation i denne sammenhæng?
Det betyder en bevidst handling designet til at skabe en krise, forårsage en militær overreaktion eller destabilisere et land uden at indlede en fuldskala invasion. Eksempler kunne være en falsk grænsehændelse, cyberangreb på infrastruktur eller et iscenesat angreb på russisktalende.
2. Hvorfor ville Rusland gøre dette?
For at teste NATOs reaktion, skabe splittelse blandt allierede, aflede opmærksomheden fra krigen i Ukraine eller retfærdiggøre yderligere aggression. Det kunne også sigte mod at svække offentlighedens tillid til lokale regeringer.
3. Hvilke lande er mest i risiko?
Estland, Letland, Litauen og Polen. Disse er NATO-medlemmer, der grænser op til Rusland eller dets allierede Belarus.
4. Er dette en trussel om en egentlig krig?
Usandsynligt at det er en fuld invasion. Provokationer er designet til at forblive under tærsklen for at udløse NATOs artikel 5. De kan dog eskalere, hvis de håndteres forkert.
5. Hvordan ville en provokation rent faktisk ske?
Almindelige scenarier inkluderer en falsk beskydning af en russisk grænsepost, et massakre på russisktalende civile iscenesat som falsk flag, en pludselig militærøvelse nær grænsen eller et cyberangreb på elnet eller banker.
**Spørgsmål på mellemniveau**
6. Hvad er artikel 5, og hvordan relaterer det til dette?
Artikel 5 er NATOs gensidige forsvarsklausul: et angreb på et medlem er et angreb på alle. En provokation sigter mod at skabe tvetydighed – hvilket gør det uklart, om hændelsen er et ægte angreb eller et falsk et – så NATO tøver med at reagere.
7. Hvordan ved efterretningskilder om disse planer?
Gennem aflyttet kommunikation, satellitbilleder af usædvanlige troppebevægelser, menneskelig efterretning fra det russiske sikkerhedsapparat og analyse af tidligere russiske taktikker.
8. Hvad er falsk flag-operationer?
Handlinger udført af en part, mens de foregiver at være en anden. For eksempel kunne russiske agenter angribe en russisk grænsepost iført ukrainske eller polske uniformer og derefter give offeret skylden.
9. Kan en provokation udløse en direkte NATO-Rusland krig?
Ja.
