Voters in two German states are going to the polls as the political future of embattled Chancellor Friedrich Merz hangs in the balance, with an emboldened far right aiming for further gains. The elections come two weeks after a seismic vote in Saxony-Anhalt, where the anti-immigration, pro-Kremlin Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) achieved its best-ever result in a regional election. The nativist party is expected to pull support away from Merz’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) once again. How brutal the outcome is could affect Merz’s ability to stay on as leader after only 16 months in power, possibly setting in motion his replacement or even snap elections—currently seen as unlikely but not ruled out.
About 2.5 million people are eligible to vote in the capital, Berlin, and nearly 1.3 million in the Baltic coast state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Polling stations open at 8am local time on Sunday and close at 6pm, when Merz and his allies will be anxiously watching exit polls. The unlucky chancellor has resisted calls to quit and vowed to fight for a signature package of economic and social welfare changes he argues are crucial to Germany’s future. “We as a government were elected for four years, I was elected for four years,” he told an industry group. “And I want to use these four years to lead the country out of this difficult period.” Merz, whose personal approval ratings have plummeted to 10%, cancelled a plan to speak at the UN General Assembly in New York because “his presence is required in Berlin” after the elections, a government official said. His credibility has been damaged by broken campaign promises to return Europe’s largest economy to growth and to cut the AfD—the biggest opposition party in parliament and number one in opinion polls—down to size.
The AfD fell just short of an absolute majority in former communist Saxony-Anhalt, which would have allowed it to govern alone. It is looking for defectors from other parties to make it the first far-right force to run a German state since the Nazi period. However, polls indicate the AfD will fall well short of such a prospect in both of Sunday’s elections, even with its palpable sense of momentum. In Berlin, one of Germany’s 16 federal states, the incumbent CDU is vying for first place against the far-left Die Linke, which has called for the expropriation of corporate landlords to fight rising housing costs. About 85% of Berlin households rent their homes, and advertised rents have nearly doubled since 2014, when the city was still labelled “poor but sexy” by its then mayor, Klaus Wowereit. The AfD is polling strongly in third or fourth place, even in the cosmopolitan capital. The current mayor, Kai Wegner of the CDU, abandoned his re-election bid in July after getting tangled in contradictions explaining a decision to play tennis while large parts of the German capital were hit by an arson-triggered power blackout last winter. Stefan Evers, Berlin’s chief finance official, replaced him as the candidate but has failed to lift the party’s polling scores.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the situation looks even dicier for Merz, whose weakness regional leaders have blamed for their poor showing. The AfD and the Social Democrats are locked in a neck-and-neck race, while the CDU risks its first single-digit result in 75 years. If it crashes out of parliament entirely by falling below the 5% threshold for representation, it would be unprecedented in the postwar period and mark a stinging setback for Merz’s quest to stay in office. The AfD’s triumph in Saxony-Anhalt sThe result sent shock waves through Germany and beyond, leaving Merz in a precarious position. Speculation is growing that another Christian Democrat could replace him as chancellor well before the next general election, due in 2029. Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg bank, said he still expected Merz to serve his full term. “But the risk that the CDU may revolt against him and replace the unpopular chancellor seems to have risen from 20% 10 days ago to roughly 35% now, in my view,” he said in a research note, highlighting how rising global petrol prices are affecting already angry voters. Although some economic indicators have improved under Merz, soaring living costs and deindustrialisation in core sectors such as automaking, driven by Chinese competition, have taken a heavy toll. Meanwhile, a significant drop in new arrivals at the border has failed to win back AfD voters, who are drawn to the party’s strong focus on economic anxiety, fears about crime, and opposition to Merz’s firm support for Ukraine. The AfD built its victory in Saxony-Anhalt largely by mobilising non-voters. Its opponents hope the spectre of a far-right juggernaut across Germany will drive voters to the polls in support of mainstream democratic parties, after tens of thousands joined anti-AfD street protests following the Saxony-Anhalt rout.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs The Future of the German Chancellor as Two States Hold Elections
1 Whats happening in Germany right now
Two German states are holding elections and the results could shake up the national government and the chancellors future
2 Which two states are voting
The two states are BadenWrttemberg and RhinelandPalatinate Both held regional elections in March 2026
3 Why do state elections matter for the chancellor
State elections are often seen as a report card on the national government If the chancellors party does poorly it weakens his authority
4 Who is the German chancellor
Friedrich Merz of the CDU He took office in May 2025
5 What does chancellor mean
The chancellor is Germanys head of government similar to a prime minister They set the countrys main policies and lead the cabinet
6 What were the results of the two elections
The CDU lost ground in both states The farright AfD made big gains and turnout was high
7 Why is the chancellors future uncertain
Because losing state elections makes it harder for Merz to keep his coalition together and pass laws Some in his own party are questioning his leadership
8 What is a coalition
A coalition is when two or more parties team up to form a government because no single party won a majority
9 What coalition is in power nationally
A grand coalition of the CDUCSU and the SPD
10 Could the coalition collapse
Its possible but not likely right away The SPD could walk out if things get worse which would trigger new national elections
11 Can the chancellor be removed
Yes but its hard The Bundestag can remove a chancellor through a constructive vote of no confidence but only if it can agree on a replacement at the same time
12 What is a constructive vote of no confidence
Its a special rule in Germany parliament can only kick out a chancellor if it simultaneously elects a new one This prevents unstable government changes
13 Why is the AfDs rise important
The AfD is a farright party Its growing support puts pressure on mainstream parties and makes coalitionbuilding harder
