Masu jefa ƙuri'a a jihohin Jamus biyu za su je rumfunan zaɓe yayin da makomar siyasar shugaban gwamnati Friedrich Merz da ke cikin mawuyacin hali ke rataye a ma'auni, yayin da wata ƙungiyar dama mai tsaurin ra'ayi da ta sami ƙarfin gwiwa ke neman ƙarin nasara. Zaɓen ya zo makonni biyu bayan wata ƙuri'a mai girgiza a Saxony-Anhalt, inda jam'iyyar Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) mai adawa da baƙi kuma mai goyon bayan Kremlin ta sami mafi kyawun sakamakonta da ta taɓa samu a zaɓen yanki. Ana sa ran jam'iyyar mai kishin ƙasa za ta sake janye goyon baya daga jam'iyyar Christian Democratic Union (CDU) ta Merz mai ra'ayin mazan jiya. Yadda sakamakon zai kasance mai muni zai iya shafar ikon Merz na ci gaba da zama shugaba bayan watanni 16 kacal a kan mulki, wanda zai iya haifar da maye gurbinsa ko ma zaɓen gaggawa—wanda a halin yanzu ake ganin ba zai yiwu ba amma ba a kawar da shi ba.
Kimanin mutane miliyan 2.5 ne suka cancanci jefa ƙuri'a a babban birnin Berlin, kuma kusan miliyan 1.3 a jihar Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania da ke gabar tekun Baltic. Ana buɗe rumfunan zaɓe da ƙarfe 8 na safe agogon gida ranar Lahadi kuma a rufe da ƙarfe 6 na yamma, lokacin da Merz da abokansa za su rika kallo cikin damuwa ga sakamakon farko. Shugaban gwamnatin mara sa'a ya ƙi yin kira na yin murabus kuma ya sha alwashin yin gwagwarmaya don wani babban shiri na sauye-sauyen tattalin arziki da jin dadin jama'a wanda ya ce yana da muhimmanci ga makomar Jamus. "Mu a matsayinmu na gwamnati an zaɓe mu na shekaru huɗu, an zaɓe ni na shekaru huɗu," in ji shi ga wata ƙungiyar masana'antu. "Kuma ina so in yi amfani da waɗannan shekaru huɗu don jagorantar ƙasar daga wannan mawuyacin lokaci." Merz, wanda ƙimar amincewar sa ta faɗo zuwa kashi 10%, ya soke shirin yin magana a Babban Taron Majalisar Dinkin Duniya a New York saboda "ana buƙatar kasancewarsa a Berlin" bayan zaɓen, in ji wani jami'in gwamnati. Amintaccensa ya lalace saboda karya alkawuran yaƙin neman zaɓe na mayar da babbar tattalin arzikin Turai ga ci gaba da kuma rage AfD—babbar jam'iyyar adawa a majalisa kuma ta farko a zaɓen ra'ayi—zuwa ƙarami.
AfD ta kusan kasa samun cikakkiyar rinjaye a tsohuwar jihar kwaminisanci ta Saxony-Anhalt, wanda zai ba ta damar yin mulki ita kaɗai. Tana neman masu ficewa daga wasu jam'iyyu don mayar da ita ƙungiyar dama mai tsaurin ra'ayi ta farko da za ta tafiyar da wata jihar Jamus tun zamanin Nazi. Duk da haka, zaɓen ra'ayi na nuna AfD za ta yi nisa da irin wannan fata a duka zaɓen ranar Lahadi, duk da ƙarfin gwiwar da ake gani. A Berlin, ɗaya daga cikin jihohin tarayya 16 na Jamus, CDU mai ci ke fafatawa don matsayi na farko da jam'iyyar hagu mai tsaurin ra'ayi Die Linke, wadda ta yi kira da a kwace kadarorin masu gidaje na kamfanoni don yaƙi da hauhawar farashin gidaje. Kimanin kashi 85% na gidaje a Berlin haya suke, kuma farashin hayar da ake tallata ya kusan ninka sau biyu tun 2014, lokacin da magajin garin na lokacin, Klaus Wowereit, ke kiran birnin da "matalauci amma mai jan hankali". AfD tana da ƙarfi a matsayi na uku ko na huɗu, har ma a babban birnin da ke da al'adu dabam-dabam. Magajin garin na yanzu, Kai Wegner na CDU, ya yi watsi da yunkurinsa na sake tsayawa zaɓe a watan Yuli bayan ya shiga cikin rikice-rikicen bayani game da shawarar buga wasan tennis yayin da manyan sassan babban birnin Jamus suka fuskanci katsewar wutar lantarki da wuta ta haddasa a lokacin hunturu da ya gabata. Stefan Evers, babban jami'in kuɗi na Berlin, ya maye gurbinsa a matsayin ɗan takara amma ya kasa ɗaga ƙimar jam'iyyar a zaɓen ra'ayi.
A Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, yanayin ya fi muni ga Merz, wanda shugabannin yankin suka dora laifin raunin su a kan rauninsa. AfD da Social Democrats suna cikin fafatawa ta kusa, yayin da CDU ke fuskantar sakamakon lamba ɗaya na farko cikin shekaru 75. Idan ta faɗo daga majalisa gaba ɗaya ta hanyar faɗuwa ƙasa da kashi 5 na ƙa'idar wakilci, hakan zai kasance abin da ba a taɓa gani ba a zamanin bayan yaƙi kuma zai nuna koma baya mai zafi ga yunkurin Merz na ci gaba da zama a kan mulki. Nasarar AfD a Saxony-Anhalt ta aika girgizar ƙasa a Jamus da ma bayanta, ta bar Merz cikin mawuyacin hali. Hasashe na ƙaruwa cewa wani Christian Democrat zai iya maye gurbinsa a matsayin shugaban gwamnati tun kafin babban zaɓe na gaba, wanda ya kamata a yi a 2029. Holger Schmieding, babban masanin tattalin arziki a bankin Berenberg, ya ce har yanzu yana tsammanin Merz zai cika wa'adinsa. "Amma haɗarin da CDU za ta iya tayar masa da yaƙi ta maye gurbin shugaban gwamnatin da ba a so ya tashi daga kashi 20% kwanaki 10 da suka wuce zuwa kusan kashi 35% a yanzu, a ganina," in ji shi a wata takarda ta bincike, yana nuna yadda hauhawar farashin man fetur a duniya ke shafar masu jefa ƙuri'a da suka riga suka fusata. Ko da wasu alamomin tattalin arziki sun inganta a ƙarƙashin Merz, hauhawar tsadar rayuwa da rushewar masana'antu a muhimman sassa kamar kera motoci, wanda gasar Sin ta haifar, sun yi mummunan tasiri. A halin yanzu, raguwar masu shigowa kan iyaka sosai ya kasa dawo da masu jefa ƙuri'a na AfD, waɗanda ke jan hankalin jam'iyyar saboda mai da hankali sosai kan damuwar tattalin arziki, tsoron laifuka, da adawa da goyon bayan Merz mai ƙarfi ga Ukraine. AfD ta gina nasararta a Saxony-Anhalt galibi ta hanyar tattara waɗanda ba sa jefa ƙuri'a. Abokan hamayyarta suna fatan ganin wata ƙungiyar dama mai tsaurin ra'ayi a duk faɗin Jamus zai sa masu jefa ƙuri'a su fito don goyon bayan manyan jam'iyyun dimokuradiyya, bayan dubban dubbai suka shiga zanga-zangar adawa da AfD a kan tituna bayan kayen Saxony-Anhalt.
Tambayoyin da ake yawan yi
Tambayoyin da ake yawan yi Makomar Shugaban Gwamnatin Jamus yayin da Jihohi Biyu ke Zaɓe
1 Me ke faruwa a Jamus a yanzu
Jihohin Jamus biyu suna zaɓe kuma sakamakon zai iya girgiza gwamnatin ƙasa da makomar shugaban gwamnati
2 Waɗanne jihohi biyu ne ke zaɓe
Jihohin biyu su ne Baden-Württemberg da Rhineland-Palatinate Dukansu sun yi zaɓen yanki a Maris 2026
3 Me ya sa zaɓen jihohi ke da muhimmanci ga shugaban gwamnati
Ana yawan kallon zaɓen jihohi a matsayin rahoton aikin gwamnatin ƙasa Idan jam'iyyar shugaban gwamnati ta yi rashin nasara hakan na raunana ikonsa
4 Wanene shugaban gwamnatin Jamus
Friedrich Merz na CDU Ya hau mulki a Mayu 2025
5 Me ake nufi da shugaban gwamnati
Shugaban gwamnati shi ne shugaban gwamnatin Jamus kamar firaminista Suna tsara manyan manufofin ƙasar kuma suna jagorantar majalisar ministoci
6 Menene sakamakon zaɓen biyu
CDU ta yi asara a jihohin biyu AfD mai tsaurin ra'ayin dama ta sami babban ci gaba kuma yawan masu jefa ƙuri'a ya yi yawa
7 Me ya sa makomar shugaban gwamnati ba ta tabbata
Saboda rashin nasara a zaɓen jihohi na sa Merz ya yi wahala wajen riƙe haɗin gwiwarsa tare da zartar da dokoki Wasu a cikin jam'iyyarsa suna tambaya kan jagorancinsa
8 Menene haɗin gwiwa
Haɗin gwiwa shi ne lokacin da jam'iyyu biyu ko fiye suka haɗa kai don kafa gwamnati saboda babu wata jam'iyya da ta sami rinjaye
9 Wace haɗin gwiwa ce ke kan mulki a ƙasa
Babbar haɗin gwiwa ta CDU/CSU da SPD
10 Shin haɗin gwiwar na iya rushewa
Yana yiwuwa amma ba da nan take ba SPD na iya ficewa idan abubuwa suka tsananta wanda zai haifar da sabon zaɓen ƙasa
11 Shin ana iya cire shugaban gwamnati
Eh amma yana da wahala Bundestag na iya cire shugaban gwamnati ta hanyar ƙuri'ar rashin amincewa mai ginawa amma kawai idan za ta iya amincewa kan wanda zai maye gurbinsa a lokaci guda
12 Menene ƙuri'ar rashin amincewa mai ginawa
Ƙa'ida ce ta musamman a Jamus majalisa na iya korar shugaban gwamnati ne kawai idan ta zaɓi sabon shugaban gwamnati a lokaci guda Wannan na hana sauye-sauyen gwamnati marasa kwanciyar hankali
13 Me ya sa hawan AfD ke da muhimmanci
AfD jam'iyya ce mai tsaurin ra'ayin dama Ƙaruwar goyon bayanta na matsa lamba kan manyan jam'iyyu kuma na sa kafa haɗin gwiwa ya yi wahala
