More than 40,000 extra people died on the hottest days in England between 1988 and 2025 compared to what would normally be expected, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday.
These figures don’t include this summer, when England has faced repeated heatwaves and is likely to see its highest ever number of heat-related deaths. The UK Health Security Agency reported on 30 July that an estimated 2,877 people died during the May and June heatwaves alone—almost double the total for the whole summer of 2025.
The number of people dying early because of high temperatures is expected to keep rising as climate change, driven by burning fossil fuels, pushes temperatures up and the population gets older. Older people, children, and those who are unwell are especially at risk from heat.
Hospitals in England have had their busiest summer ever, with nearly 2.5 million patients visiting A&E each month in May, June, and July, and heat being a major factor. Nurses were collapsing during shifts due to “inhumane and impossible” conditions caused by extreme heat, their union warned in early August.
London had the highest number of deaths linked to the hottest temperatures, the ONS said. The London ambulance service has handled 25,000 more calls this summer than last, beating the record set during the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Almost all English regions, as well as Wales, saw a 50% increase in the risk of death when temperatures went above 24°C. In Wales, more than 2,000 deaths were linked to the hottest days from 1988 to 2025, and 10,000 to the coldest.
Historically, more excess deaths occurred on the coldest days than the hottest. There were 139,000 deaths linked to the coldest days in England between 1988 and 2025, according to the ONS. However, James Tucker from the ONS said: “Our results show that the gap between heat- and cold-related deaths has narrowed in recent years as the proportion of heat-related deaths has increased.”
Dr Clair Barnes, a statistician at Imperial College London who studies how climate change affects extreme weather, said: “We now face the very real possibility that heat deaths will overtake those on the coldest days. As this summer has made clear, the risk from extreme heat is a fast-growing problem that will only get worse without more action to cut emissions and provide cooling.”
Bob Ward, from the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at the London School of Economics, said: “Many climate change deniers and net zero opponents callously claim that heat-related deaths don’t matter because winter deaths are higher, but all these lives matter.”
“Most of these cold- and heat-related deaths are preventable,” Ward added. “This is a shocking national scandal.”
In the most recent year of ONS data, there were 2,805 heat-related deaths in England and Wales, compared to 2,244 cold-related deaths.
Emma Howard Boyd, chair of the National Heat Risk Commission, said: “Behind these numbers are people, families, and communities. The challenge now is to make sure our homes, neighbourhoods, infrastructure, and public services are better prepared to protect those most at risk.”
The UK prime minister, Andy Burnham, has faced criticism for a low-key response to the summer heatwaves and the climate crisis, as well as for moving to cut electric vehicle sales targets and allowing new North Sea oil and gas drilling.
Government advisers at the Committee on Climate Change have long warned that the country is not ready for the impacts of climate change. In May, the committee said air conditioning should be installed in all hospitals and care homes within the next 10 years, and in all schools.Within 25 years, and that the government should set a maximum temperature for both indoor and outdoor work.
In continental Europe, at least 35,000 more people died during the extremely hot summer than would normally be expected, based on figures available so far from just half of the continent. Scientists found that the heatwave that hit western Europe in late June was the most severe and widespread ever recorded, and it could only happen because of the climate crisis caused by burning fossil fuels. The World Health Organization said in May that heat-related deaths in its European region had risen by more than 30% over the past 20 years.
Gareth Redmond-King, from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said: “If we don’t speed up our move to net zero emissions – the only way to bring our climate back into balance – then this hot and dangerous summer will be one of the coolest we’ll experience for the rest of our lives.”
The heat in 2027 will be made even worse by the strong El Niño weather pattern that is currently forming in the Pacific Ocean.
Extreme heat is more dangerous for people aged 60 and over than previously thought.
Read more: Millie Brown, from the Centre for Ageing Better, said the ONS statistics were “extremely worrying”. She said: “The threat of heatwaves is made worse by our ageing and poor-quality housing, which heats up faster and more intensely than homes in Europe. Often these homes are built for a mild climate that no longer exists.”
The ONS data focused on the hottest 2.5% of days and the coldest 2.5% of days, covering a temperature range of about 0°C to 20°C. The researchers used a statistical model to estimate the link between temperature and deaths. This took into account some factors that affect the risk of dying, like air pollution, but not others, such as poverty and overcrowded homes.
The Guardian’s climate forum 2026: On Tuesday 20 October, join Damian Carrington and our panel of experts, including Prof Andy Haines, Katie White MP, Asad Rehman, Shruti Suresh, Gareth Thomas, and Amy Fairman, for an evening focused on hope and solutions. Book tickets here or at guardian.live.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on the headline about extreme heat and mortality in England
General Definition Questions
Q What does the headline National scandal mean in this context
A It means the issue is being described as a major failure of public policy The term suggests that the high number of deaths from heat is not just a natural disaster but a preventable problem caused by a lack of government preparation poor housing standards and slow action on climate change
Q Is it really true that heat kills people in England I thought it was a cold country
A Yes its true While England isnt known for extreme heat it isnt built for it Buildings are designed to keep heat in so when temperatures spike homes and offices become dangerously hot very quickly The human body also struggles to adapt to sudden intense heat especially in a country where air conditioning is rare
Q What does heatrelated death actually mean
A It means a death that wouldnt have happened if the temperature had been normal It usually refers to people dying from heatstroke or more commonly from the worsening of preexisting conditions like heart disease lung problems or kidney failure The heat puts extra strain on the body which can be fatal for vulnerable people
Q Who is most at risk from extreme heat
A The elderly very young children and people with chronic illnesses are most at risk People who live alone are socially isolated or live in poorquality housing are also particularly vulnerable
The Data The Scandal
Q How did they calculate the 40000 figure
A Researchers use statistical models They compare the number of deaths that actually occurred on a hot day to the number of deaths that would be expected on a normal day for that time of year The difference is the excess or heatrelated mortality
Q Why is this being called a scandal now if the data goes back to 1988
