Kasashe biyu da ke kan iyakar gabashin NATO sun yi gargadin cewa Rasha na iya shirya wata "tashin hankali" a kasashen Baltic ko Poland, da nufin gwada hadin kai na kungiyar tsaro ta Yamma. Majiyoyin Yamma kuma suna fargabar cewa hadari na iya kasancewa a sararin sama, yayin da Kremlin ke fuskantar matsin lamba daga hare-haren nesa na Ukraine a kan wuraren da ke kusa da Moscow da St. Petersburg.
A ranar Litinin, jami'an leken asirin Latvia sun bayyana: "Muna ganin alamun cewa Rasha na shirya tashin hankali na soja a kan kasashen Baltic ko Poland." Duk da haka, sun lura cewa ba zai kai ga wani hari mai girman gaske ba. Wani babban jami'in siyasa daga wani memba na NATO ya yi irin wannan bayani a makon da ya gabata, yana cewa, "Muna karbar bayanan sirri" cewa Vladimir Putin yana "shirya wani abu a kan kasashen Baltic."
Sun ba da shawarar cewa Putin na iya son gwada goyon bayan Amurka ga wasu kananan membobin NATO—Estonia, Latvia, da Lithuania—a wani yunƙuri na "jefa kuri'a" yayin da Rasha ke fama da mamayar Ukraine.
A daren ranar Alhamis, firaministan Poland ya bayyana damuwarsa a bainar jama'a. "Mu ma, ba tare da togiya ba, muna raba ra'ayin cewa halin da ake ciki ba shi da kwanciyar hankali kuma ana iya sa ran nau'ikan tashin hankali a cikin makonni da watanni masu zuwa," in ji Donald Tusk a wani taron manema labarai bayan taron Eastern Flank a Gdansk. "Muna so mu shirya a matsayin rukuni na kasashen da ke fuskantar wannan hadari kai tsaye."
Jami'an leken asirin Latvia sun ce Rasha ba ta da ikon bude wani fagen yaki na biyu amma tana tunanin "hare-haren hadaka, kamar makamai masu linzami, jirage marasa matuki, ko wasu ayyuka da aka tsara don aika sako: daina tallafawa Ukraine, ko za ku sami matsalolin ku."
Ko da yake gargadin yana da alaka, babu cikakkun bayanai masu tallafi, kamar yadda aka yi a gargadin daki-daki da CIA da MI6 suka fitar kafin mamayar Ukraine ta Rasha a watan Fabrairu 2022. Amma sun zo ne a lokacin da ci gaban Rasha a Ukraine ya tsaya cik, yana tayar da tambayoyi game da ko Kremlin zai koma ga wasu dabaru don karya matsalar ko canza yanayin zuwa ga amfaninta.
Keir Giles, masanin Rasha a Cibiyar Tunani ta Chatham House, ya ce: "Moscow za ta nemi hanyoyin da za ta rushe yanayin da ake ciki, ta hanyar tashin hankali a kwance [yada rikici zuwa wasu kasashe] ko yin wani abu a wani wuri. Bai kamata mu yi tsammanin Rasha za ta yi rashin nasara a hankali ba."
Rashin karfin Rasha ya bayyana a wannan makon lokacin da tashoshin relay na jirage marasa matuki a Belarus suka daina aiki bayan da Ukraine ta yi barazanar kai musu hari. Shugaban Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, ya ba Belarus gargadi na mako guda a ranar Juma'a da ta gabata, yana cewa kayan aikin suna taimaka wa Rasha kai hari a kasarsa. Wani tashar Telegram ta ruwaito cewa hukumomi a yankunan Brest da Gomel na Belarus sun bukaci masu aikin wayar hannu su rusa masu maimaitawa saboda suna hana gidajen grouse.
NATO za ta gudanar da taron shekara-shekara a Ankara, Turkiyya, a wannan wata yayin da ake rashin tabbas game da sadaukarwar Amurka ga kungiyar. A ranar Laraba, Donald Trump ya ce yana jin "rashin amincewa" daga abokan kawancen Turai da ba su bar sojojin saman Amurka su jefa bama-bamai a Iran daga filayen jiragen sama a kasashensu ba.
Tun farkon mamayar Ukraine, an sami raƙuman ruwa da yawa na ayyukan sabotage da tashin hankali na Rasha, ciki har da dasa bama-bamai a cikin fakiti na DHL a Burtaniya, Poland, da Jamus a lokacin bazara na 2024. A watan Satumba na shekarar da ta gabata, jirage marasa matuki na Rasha 19 sun shiga sararin samaniyar Poland, wanda ya sa NATO ta tura jiragen yaki don kokarin harbe su yayin da aka gaya wa mutane a larduna uku na gabas su fake a cikin gida. Ukraine ta ci gaba da haɓaka...Sun haɓaka ikon kai hari mai zurfi na cikin gida wanda zai iya kaiwa wurare har zuwa kilomita 2,000 a cikin Rasha. A makon da ya gabata, kusan jirage marasa matuki 200 sun kai hari a wurare da yawa a Moscow, kuma baƙin mai ya yi ruwan sama a sassan babban birnin Rasha bayan da aka jefa bam a wani matatar mai.
Wata majiyar sojan Yamma ta ce akwai damuwa cewa Rasha na iya mayar da martani idan Putin ya ji matsin lamba, yayin da yakin ya koma sararin samaniyar Moscow da St. Petersburg. "Ba zan iya yin karya ba, wannan lokaci ne mai hadari," in ji su.
Tsoron yiwuwar tashin hankali na Rasha ya kuma bayyana a kaka na 2022, lokacin da wasu koma baya kwatsam a lardin Kharkiv ya sa jami'an Yamma suka damu cewa Moscow na iya ma amfani da makamin nukiliya don kare kanta. Amma babu wata shaida ta matakan zuwa ga ainihin tura makaman, kuma layin gaba ya daidaita zuwa karshen shekara.
Tambayoyi da Aka Yi Yawa
Anan akwai jerin tambayoyin da aka yi yawa game da yiwuwar tashin hankali na Rasha a kasashen Baltic ko Poland da aka rubuta cikin sautin bayyananne na halitta tare da amsoshi kai tsaye.
Tambayoyi na Matakin Farko
1. Menene ma'anar tashin hankali a wannan mahallin?
Yana nufin wani aiki da gangan da aka tsara don haifar da rikici, haifar da martani na soja mai wuce gona da iri, ko tada hankalin kasa ba tare da kaddamar da hari mai girman gaske ba. Misalai na iya zama lamarin iyaka na karya, harin cyber akan ababen more rayuwa, ko harin da aka shirya kan masu magana da Rashanci.
2. Me yasa Rasha za ta yi haka?
Don gwada martanin NATO, haifar da rarrabuwa tsakanin kawance, jan hankali daga yakin ta a Ukraine, ko tabbatar da wani hari na gaba. Hakanan na iya nufin raunana amincewar jama'a ga gwamnatocin gida.
3. Wadanne kasashe ne suka fi fuskantar hadari?
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, da Poland. Wadannan membobin NATO ne da ke iyaka da Rasha ko kawarta Belarus.
4. Shin wannan barazanar yaki ne na gaske?
Da wuya ya zama mamaya mai girman gaske. Tashin hankali an tsara su ne don kasancewa kasa da matakin da zai jawo Mataki na 5 na NATO. Duk da haka, suna iya tashi idan ba a kula da su yadda ya kamata ba.
5. Ta yaya tashin hankali zai faru a zahiri?
Abubuwan da aka saba sun hada da harbe-harbe na karya a tashar iyakar Rasha, kisan gilla na fararen hula masu magana da Rashanci da aka shirya ta hanyar tutar karya, atisayen soja kwatsam kusa da iyaka, ko harin cyber akan grid na wutar lantarki ko bankuna.
Tambayoyi na Matsakaicin Mataki
6. Menene Mataki na 5 kuma ta yaya yake da alaka da wannan?
Mataki na 5 shine matakin kare juna na NATO: hari kan memba daya hari ne kan duka. Tashin hankali yana nufin haifar da shakku—yana sa ba a san ko lamarin hari ne na gaske ko na karya ba, don haka NATO ta yi jinkirin mayar da martani.
7. Ta yaya majiyoyin leken asiri suka san game da wadannan tsare-tsare?
Ta hanyar sadarwar da aka katse, hotunan tauraron dan adam na motsin sojoji marasa al'ada, leken asirin mutum daga cikin jami'an tsaron Rasha, da kuma nazarin dabarun Rasha na baya.
8. Menene ayyukan tutar karya?
Ayyuka da wata kungiya ke yi yayin da take yin kamar wani ne. Misali, jami'an Rasha na iya kai hari a tashar iyakar Rasha yayin da suke sanye da kayan Ukraine ko Poland, sannan su zargi wanda aka azabtar.
9. Shin tashin hankali zai iya haifar da yakin NATO-Rasha kai tsaye?
E.
