Kiran Yerevan—birni mai kyau da ke ɗauke da dabi'un 'yanci a cikin manyan gine-ginen Soviet—a matsayin cibiyar duniya zai zama karin gishiri. Amma ikirarin Armeniya cewa za ta iya zama mahadar dabara na nahiyar Eurasia yana ƙara zama ba shi da nisa. Yayin da tsohuwar jamhuriyar Soviet ke shiga zaɓe a ranar 7 ga watan Yuni don zaɓen ƙasa, ta sami kanta a cikin gwagwarmaya tsakanin ƙasashe biyar: Rasha, Amurka, Turkiyya, Turai, da Azerbaijan.
Wani ɓangare na sha'awar ya fito ne daga yiwuwar kawo ƙarshen rikicin Armeniya da makwabciyarta Azerbaijan—da kuma damar da wannan ke ba wa Armeniya ta fita daga keɓewarta ta zahiri kuma ta shiga "tsakiyar hanyar," wata muhimmiyar hanyar kasuwanci da ke haɗa yammacin China da Turai yayin da ta ƙetare hanyar arewacin Rasha da kuma Suez Canal.
Firayim Ministan Armeniya, Nikol Pashinyan, ya yi ikirarin cewa buɗe iyakokinta da Turkiyya da Azerbaijan na iya canza ba kawai Armeniya ba amma dukan Kudancin Caucasus. Da zarar an buɗe waɗannan iyakoki kuma aka sami zaman lafiya, in ji shi, zai zama kamar yanayin ƙasar Armeniya ya canza kansa. Mafi gajeriyar hanya tsakanin gabas da yamma, in ji shi, ta bi ta Armeniya.
Ministan Harkokin Waje Ararat Mirzoyan ya ce burin gwamnati shi ne mayar da yanayin ƙasar Armeniya wata kadara ta dabara. "Kalubalen bayan shekaru da yawa shi ne yadda za a zama gada maimakon cikas. Don haka abin da muke ƙoƙarin yi a Armeniya ke nan. Ko ta yaya mun fahimci cewa za mu iya haɗa Turai da Asiya ta Tsakiya, da nesa, da Indiya, da China, kuma wannan, bi da bi, ba zai zama hanya ce kawai don ceton wanzuwarmu, ikonmu ba, har ma da tabbatar da ci gabanmu na zaman lafiya."
Azerbaijan da Armeniya sun sanya hannu kan yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya a Fadar White House wanda ya haifar da 'Hanyar Trump' a yankin
Kara karantawa
Abin da ake kira Hanyar Trump don Zaman Lafiya da Ci gaban Duniya (Tripp)—wanda ke haɗa Turai da Asiya kuma an gina shi a kan ƙasar Armeniya a matsayin wani ɓangare na yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya da Baku—zai zama wani yanki ne kawai na wannan sabon tsarin haɗin kai.
Wannan hangen nesa na geopolitical—zuciyar abin da Pashinyan ke bayarwa don wa'adinsa na uku a jere—shi ma wani ɓangare ne na ainihin Armeniya a nan gaba. Yana mayar da zaɓen yanke shawara kan ko za a goyi bayan kiran Pashinyan na abin da ya kira "Armeniya ta Gaskiya," sabanin Armeniya ta tarihi da ta damu da ƙasashen da aka rasa da kuma tsoffin korafe-korafe.
Koyarwar Armeniya ta Gaskiya tana buƙatar yin sulhu mai raɗaɗi da makwabciyarta Azerbaijan da kuma karkata daga Rasha zuwa EU—abin da jam'iyyar Pashinyan ta Civil Contract ta bayyana a matsayin "manufofin harkokin waje da suka fi bambanta." Amma kuma yana tayar da cece-kuce, kamar korar darektan gidan tarihi na kisan kare dangi na Armeniya saboda bai wa JD Vance littafi kan kisan gilla na Azerbaijan, ko cire hoton Dutsen Ararat—alamar ƙasa, ko da yake yana cikin Turkiyya ta yau—daga tambarin fasfo na Armeniya.
Duba hoto cikin cikakken allo
Mataimakin shugaban Amurka JD Vance da uwargidan shugaban Usha Vance sun ziyarci Tsitsernakaberd Armenian Genocide Memorial a Yerevan. Hoton: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
Zaɓen farko sun nuna cewa Civil Contract na iya yin nasara—wani babban nasara ga jam'iyyar da ta kula da shan kashi biyu na soja a hannun Azerbaijan a 2020 da 2023. Shan kashi na biyu ya haɗa da tilasta korar Armeniyawa 100,000 daga yankin Nagorno-Karabakh a cikin dare. 'Yan gudun hijirar yanzu suna zaune a Yerevan kuma suna tsoron al'adunsu. Fursunoni goma sha tara daga wannan yaƙin suna cikin kurkuku a Baku, ciki har da ministan farko na yankin, Ruben Vardanyan, wanda ya ce Pashinyan ya bar manufarsu.
Yaƙin neman zaɓe yana da alƙawarin zama mai ban tsoro.
Tare da kasancewarsa a Facebook kusan koyaushe da kuzarin karfe 5 na safe, Pashinyan yana fitar da bidiyo daban-daban daga cin abinci mai daɗi zuwa sauraron mawaƙin Rasha Zemfira ba tare da nuna motsi ba. Hakanan yana da halin shiga muhawara mai zafi da masu jefa ƙuri'a, yana zargin shugabannin 'yan adawa da zama 'yan leƙen asiri na waje marasa hankali kuma yana barazanar kawar da su.
Pashinyan yana fuskantar aƙalla jam'iyyun kishin ƙasa guda uku masu goyon bayan Rasha, ciki har da Stronger Armenia, wanda Samvel Karapetyan ke jagoranta, wani ɗan Rasha-Armeniya mai kudi da yawa. Ya kafa Tashir Group, wani kamfani mai haɗin gwiwa da ke da sha'awa a Rasha da kuma mallakar hanyar wutar lantarki ta Armeniya. A makon da ya gabata, Karapetyan ya zargi Firayim Minista Pashinyan da gwada naman kaza mai haifar da rudani a China, yana jin daɗinsu sosai har ya shigo da ton, kuma yana cinye su kafin taron gwamnati. Pashinyan ya ce zai kai kara kan waɗannan zarge-zargen.
Karapetyan kuma ya yi alƙawarin ƙirƙirar Ma'aikatar Jima'i don magance raguwar yawan jama'a a ƙasar. A matsayin alamar yadda kasuwanci da siyasa ke haɗuwa, yana yaƙi da sharuɗɗan mayar da hanyar wutar lantarkinsa mallakar gwamnati.
An kama Karapetyan a watan Yuni na bara bayan ya yi maganganun da aka ɗauka a matsayin goyon bayan yunkurin juyin mulki daga cocin Armeniya. Sakamakon haka, yanzu yana gudanar da yaƙin neman zaɓe daga abin da za a iya kwatanta da gidan—ko gidan sarauta—da aka tsare shi. An hana shi zama ɗan majalisa saboda yana da fasfo na Cyprus da Rasha. Sauran mambobin Stronger Armenia an kama su saboda zargin ba da cin hanci.
Masu fafutukar kare haƙƙin ɗan adam, kamar Kenneth Roth, tsohon daraktan gudanarwa na Human Rights Watch, sun nuna cewa tsarin Pashinyan na jama'a yana kusa da mulkin kama-karya. Sun yi tambaya ko ya kamata shugabannin Turai, kamar Shugaban Faransa Emmanuel Macron, su ba shi goyon baya sosai.
A halin yanzu, Karapetyan yana zargin Pashinyan da cin amanar Armeniya ta hanyar yin rangwame da yawa ga Azerbaijan. Ya yi gargadin cewa idan aka sake zaɓar firayim minista, "ba za mu zama lardin Rasha ba, amma lardin Azerbaijan." Samfurinsa a fili shine Georgian Dream, ƙungiyar masu goyon bayan Rasha da ke riƙe da mulki a Tbilisi tun 2012.
Abokan Pashinyan, kamar Maria Karapetyan, mamba a kwamitin dindindin kan harkokin waje, suna jayayya cewa abokan adawar kishin ƙasa masu goyon bayan Rasha ba su da wani ainihin shiri da zai dace da "Armeniya ta Gaskiya." Ta ce: "Har yanzu suna riƙe da ra'ayin cewa Armeniyawan Nagorno-Karabakh na iya samun wata hanya mai dacewa ta dawowa. Suna ba da shawarar ci gaba da buɗe batun a kan manufofin harkokin waje na Armeniya. Amma wannan kawai girke-girke ne na komawa cikin zagayowar rikici. Idan ba ku da shiri, wannan yana nufin kuna da matsala, kuma wannan matsala za ta zo da farashi—yawanci ikon Armeniya."
Matsala ta ƙarshe don amincewa da yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya, wadda aka fara sanya hannu a Fadar White House a watan Agustan da ya gabata, ita ce buƙatar Azerbaijan na cire Armeniya wani nassoshi a cikin kundin tsarin mulkinta game da sanarwar 'yancin kai na ƙasar. Wannan takarda ta haɗa da kira don haɗin kai da Nagorno-Karabakh. Armeniya ta ce ta riga ta yi watsi da duk wani ikirarin yanki a cikin yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya da aka fara sanya hannu.
Sanin cewa wannan babban layin ja ne na Baku, Civil Contract ta ce za ta sake rubuta kundin tsarin mulki, amma ta nace cewa ba ta yin hakan ne a ƙarƙashin matsin lamba. Burin shi ne a gabatar da wannan ga kuri'ar raba gardama a ƙarshen shekara. Wannan yana buƙatar samun rinjaye na tsarin mulki na kashi biyu bisa uku na kujerun majalisar—wani ƙalubale mai wuya. Lokacin da aka tambaye shi ko akwai wani shiri na B don tabbatar da kuri'ar raba gardama, Pashinyan ya ce: "Ba za mu daina ba. Zaman lafiya da buɗe iyakoki sune hanya madaidaiciya ga Armeniya da dukan yankin."
Damar Civil Contract za ta inganta idan Azerbaijan ta yi rangwame ga Armeniya kafin ranar zaɓe. Yerevan kuma tana jira tsawon watanni don Turkiyya ta sake buɗe iyakarta da Armeniya, wadda aka rufe tun 1993. Har yanzu ba ta yi hakan ba. Sakin wasu daga cikin fursunonin Armeniya 19 da ake tsare a Baku zai kuma goyi bayan diflomasiyyar shiru ta Pashinyan.
Tigran Grigoryan daga Cibiyar Dimokuradiyya da Tsaro ta Yanki a Yerevan ya ce: "Yana yiwuwa sosai ba za su iya kawo sabon kundin tsarin mulki ba, sannan za mu sami dogon lokaci na 'babu zaman lafiya, babu yaƙi.' A lokaci guda, siyasar Armeniya za ta ƙara zama mai rarrabuwa tsakanin..."Akwai 'yan adawa masu goyon bayan Rasha da gwamnati mai ƙara kama-karya. Grigoryan yayi tambaya game da nisan da Pashinyan mai rauni zai iya karkata daga Moscow zuwa Turai ba tare da haifar da ramuwar gayya daga Rasha ba.
Vladimir Putin kwanan nan ya ba da shawarar cewa Armeniya ta gudanar da kuri'ar raba gardama kan ko za ta shiga EU ko kuma ƙungiyar Eurasian da Rasha ke jagoranta. Shugaban Rasha yana tada wannan batu kafin zaɓe—sanin cewa zama memba na EU har yanzu abu ne mai nisa—don gabatar da wani batu mai rarrabuwa wanda zai amfana da 'yan takarar masu goyon bayan Rasha.
Ya zuwa yanzu, Rasha ta aika da sakonni na rashin amincewa da alkiblar Armeniya ta goyon bayan Turai, kamar hana shigo da Jermuk, ruwan ma'adinai na Armeniya. Grigoryan ya ce babbar barazana ga tasirin Moscow a Armeniya—da kuma yiwuwar layin ja—zai zama mayar da hanyoyin jirgin ƙasa mallakar Rasha da ke da bashi.
Da zarar Rasha ta rage mayar da hankali kan Ukraine, Putin na iya, alal misali, kawo ƙarshen tallafin kan shigo da iskar gas mai rahusa daga Rasha, ko ma, a matsayin makoma ta ƙarshe, yanke wadatar gaba ɗaya.
Macron, wanda ya ziyarci Armeniya a wannan watan don ziyarar ƙasa da taron Ƙungiyar Siyasa ta Turai, ya zargi Rasha da cin amana ba kawai a Ukraine ba. Yana nufin gazawar Rasha don taimakawa Armeniya a lokacin yaƙin Nagorno-Karabakh, ya ce: "Rasha ba ta nan [don Armeniya]—ba kamar yadda take ga Venezuela, Syria, ko Iran ba." Pashinyan ma ya yi musafaha da Volodymyr Zelenskyy, kuma su biyun sun yi magana da Ingilishi, ba Rashanci ba—wata sanarwa ta 'yancin kai da ta fusata Moscow.
Maria Karapetyan ta musanta cewa juyowar jam'iyyarta zuwa Turai wani ruɗi ne da ke yaudarar masu jefa ƙuri'a. Ta ce: "Muna barin wani tunani ne kawai inda muka kalli Rasha a matsayin mai cetonmu. Don haka ba mu yi gaggawar shiga wani sabon yanayi ba muna tunanin Ƙungiyar Turai za ta magance duk matsalolinmu. Jam'iyyata ta gaskata cewa bai kamata mu nemi masu ceto ba. Yana da kyau a gare mu cewa babu wanda yake son cetonmu."
Tambayoyi da Aka Yi Yawa
Anan akwai jerin tambayoyin da aka yi yawa game da manufar Armeniya a matsayin wurin haduwa tsakanin Gabas da Yamma da aka tsara don rufe matakan fahimta daban-daban
Tambayoyin Matakin Farko
1 Menene ma'anar "Gada ba shinge ba" a cikin wannan mahallin
Yana nufin Armeniya na iya zama mai haɗa al'adu daban-daban, tattalin arziki, da tsarin siyasa maimakon zama ƙasa mai rufe ko keɓe
2 Me yasa ake ɗaukar Armeniya a matsayin wurin haduwa mai yiwuwa
Saboda yanayin ƙasarta Tana a mahadar Gabashin Turai da Yammacin Asiya, tare da hanyoyin kasuwanci na tarihi da ke bi ta cikinta Hakanan tana da alaƙar al'adu da Yammacin Kirista da Gabashin Musulmi
3 Shin wannan zai sa Armeniya ta zama memba na EU da ƙawancen Rasha
Ba lallai ba Kasancewa wurin haduwa yana nufin sauƙaƙe kasuwanci da tattaunawa ba shiga dukkan bangarori ba Armeniya za ta yi ƙoƙarin ci gaba da kyakkyawar dangantaka da ƙungiyoyin biyu ba tare da an shanye ta gaba ɗaya ba
4 Ta yaya Armeniya za ta amfana daga wannan rawar
Za ta iya zama cibiyar yanki don sufuri, dabaru, da diflomasiyya Wannan zai kawo jarin waje, ƙirƙirar ayyuka, da ƙara mahimmancinta na siyasa a fagen duniya
5 Shin wannan ra'ayin ba ya toshe ta hanyar rikici da Azerbaijan
Ee wannan shine babban cikas Rufe iyakoki da biyu daga cikin makwabta hudu yana sa ya zama da wuya a zama gada ta zahiri Yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya wani sharadi ne
Tambayoyin Matakin Tsakiya
6 Menene manyan fa'idodin tattalin arziki na zama gada ga Armeniya
Armeniya za ta iya samun kuɗin wucewa daga bututun mai, hanyoyin jirgin ƙasa, da manyan hanyoyin da ke haɗa Tekun Fasha zuwa Tekun Bahar Maliya Hakanan za ta iya zama cibiyar banki ta kan iyaka, fitar da ayyukan fasaha, da sake fitar da kayayyaki
7 Menene manyan haɗarin wannan dabarar
Babban haɗari shi ne zama abin wasa a cikin manyan wasannin geopolitical Idan tashin hankali ya tashi tsakanin Yamma da Rasha/Iran, Armeniya za ta iya fuskantar matsin lamba don zaɓar bangare, ta rasa matsayinta na gada mai tsaka-tsaki
8 Ta yaya aikin "Crossroads of Peace" na Armeniya ya shafi wannan ra'ayin
Shirin gwamnatin Armeniya ne na hukuma don sake buɗe hanyoyin haɗin kai na yanki Yana ba da shawarar sabbin hanyoyi, hanyoyin jirgin ƙasa, da wuraren binciken iyaka musamman don mayar da ƙasar cibiyar wucewa
9 Wace rawa ce 'yan gudun hijirar Armeniya ke takawa a cikin wannan
'Yan gudun hijirar duniya
