Wata cibiyar bincike a Brussels ta yi kashedin cewa dole ne Jamus ta daina sha'awar nasarar da China ke samu a cikin EU, in ba haka ba za ta iya shiga cikin irin rugujewar masana'antu da ta afkuwa Amurka shekaru 25 da suka gabata.
Ribar cinikin China da Jamus ta ninka daga dala biliyan 12 zuwa dala biliyan 25 tsakanin shekarar 2024 da 2025, wanda ya haifar da rashin daidaiton ciniki na dala biliyan 94. Cibiyar Gyaran Turai (CER) ta ce babbar tattalin arzikin Turai na iya maimaita abin da ya faru a Amurka a shekarar 2001, lokacin da kwatsam shigo da kayayyaki ya lalata garuruwan yankin tsakiyar yammacin Amurka har abada.
A cewar rahoton CER, "China Shock 1.0" ba wai kawai ya kai ga asarar ayyukan yi har miliyan 2.5 ba, har ma ya haifar da karuwar kashe kai, saki, da shan muggan kwayoyi a garuruwan Amurka da suka rasa masana'antu ga China.
CER ta ce wannan rugujewar al'ummar Amurka "gargadi ne mai ban tsoro ga garuruwan Jamus masu kera motoci da injuna kamar Wolfsburg da Stuttgart" - wadanda suke gida ga Volkswagen da Mercedes-Benz, alamomin da ke wakiltar nasarar injiniya da zane na Jamus.
CER ta ce "Jamus tana jinkiri, duk da cewa China ta riga ta cinye mafi yawan masana'antun Jamus kuma tana shirin fara cin abincin dare."
Rahoton cibiyar binciken, mai taken "China Shock 2.0: the cost of Germany's complacency," ya kammala da cewa: "Berlin ba za ta iya ci gaba da sha'awar matsalar ba." Ya kara da cewa hadarin ga Berlin yana da tsanani, duk da haka shugabannin siyasar Jamus sun "yi kokawa don ganin matsalar a fili."
Wannan ya zo ne yayin da ake samun karuwar yarjejeniya cewa bunkasar fitar da kayayyaki na China - wanda ke tafiyar da tsarin manufofin shekaru biyar na Xi Jinping - ya haifar da girgiza ta biyu ta China, wanda ke jefa masana'antu da ayyukan yi cikin hadari a duniya.
Duk da haka, CER ta ce a cikin EU, girgizar ta fi shafar Jamus fiye da kowace kasa kuma tana kara muni.
Rahotonta ya nuna cewa Beijing tana gudanar da wani shiri na manufofi mai suna "10,000 little giants," wanda ke kai hari musamman ga Mittelstand na Jamus - cibiyar sadarwar kasa na matsakaitan kamfanoni masu samar da kayayyaki da kere-kere. An bayyana Jamus a matsayin "tana neman masu laifi" don matsalolin tattalin arzikinta, inda tsadar makamashi da tsarin mulki ke mamaye tattaunawar siyasa, maimakon China.
CER ta ce gazawar Jamus na fahimtar abin da ke faruwa kamar "ciwon fatalwa" ne na wanda aka yanke masa kafa. "Wannan gaban da ya bata shi ne bukatar fitar da kayayyaki, wanda China ta yanke ta hanyar matsin lamba mai karfi kan tushen masana'antun Jamus," in ji ta.
Tushen matsalar shi ne karuwar fitar da kayayyaki na China cikin sauri a duniya, yayin da shigo da kayayyaki ke raguwa. Kasar ta ba da rahoton rarar dala tiriliyan 1.2 a shekarar 2025.
CER ta dora laifin rashin daidaiton tattalin arziki kan batutuwa uku: raunin bukatar cikin gida a China; rashin daidaiton canjin kudi mara kyau, wanda zai iya rage darajar yuan da kashi 30% a kan euro; da kuma manufar Beijing da ke kai hari ga tushen masana'antun Jamus.
Cibiyar binciken ta ce shugabannin siyasa suna bukatar farkawa: "Jiran girgizar ta gyara kanta ba hankali ba ne, amma yanke shawara ne don barin rugujewar masana'antu ta ci gaba."
Ta ce mafi kyawun zabi ga Berlin shi ne ta kai hari "kuma ta goyi bayan Paris wajen tura IMF da G7 su fuskanci rage darajar kudin China da tsarin ciniki na gefe daya."
Shugabannin masana'antu a Turai da China sun shaida wa Guardian cewa suna tsoron cewa ana lalata masana'antun Turai. Wani babban masanin masana'antu na Jamus ya ce Turai na iya zama "wani lardi na China," idan aka yi la'akari da barnar da ta yadu.
