Iceland’s foreign minister has said she fears the country could face a “Brexit moment” in its upcoming EU referendum, warning about misinformation, foreign interference, and the use of AI. With just over three months until Iceland votes on whether to continue EU membership talks, the situation is being closely watched by Washington, Moscow, and Brussels.
Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir accused individuals and groups both inside and outside Iceland of “fearmongering.” She said the country is being hit with misinformation and rhetoric taken “from the playbook of Nigel Farage and Reform.” She warned that the referendum could become a target for Russia and “actors who seek to influence our public debate in a negative way.” Foreign interference and the spread of misinformation could end up affecting the result, she added.
“I am fearing that we will face a Brexit moment,” she told the Guardian. “That would be, from my point of view, a rather dangerous path because … there were all kinds of lies put forward by the Brexiteers.” She pointed to disputed figures used by the leave campaign about how much money the UK sent to the EU.
Þorgerður said Brexit “should be an example of how not to run a campaign” rather than something to copy. “Nothing of what they promised has actually been activated or realised,” she said.
The Icelandic coalition government – made up of the left-leaning Social Democratic Alliance, the People’s Party, and Þorgerður’s centre-right, pro-European Liberal Reform party – surprised many when it announced in March that it would hold the EU referendum on 29 August. It had previously said it would do so no later than 2027.
The decision was partly driven by threats from the US, a longtime close ally of Iceland, to forcibly take over its nearest neighbour, Greenland. Þorgerður said: “For us, from my point of view, the international order that underpinned our security and prosperity for decades is under serious pressure. The world has changed so decisively, I would say, so Greenland has of course affected, or had influence on, our decision.”
She said old alliances were being tested and trade used as a “political weapon.” “You do not treat a friend and an ally like Greenland and Denmark like the US did at the beginning of this year.” However, she insisted that Iceland’s relationship with the US remains strong and that it is broadening its alliances. “Iceland being a member of the EU is not contradicting all the good relationship with the US. One thing does not exclude the other thing.”
When Icelanders vote in the August referendum, they will not be asked whether they want to join the EU, but whether they want the government to resume membership talks with the bloc. Iceland first applied for EU membership in 2009, and the council agreed to open talks the following year. But in 2013, the Icelandic government pulled out. If Icelanders vote yes, talks will resume, and if a deal is reached, the government will hold a second referendum on whether to accept it.
Opinion polls show a tight contest. According to a recent survey for the foreign ministry, 42% of Icelanders were in favour of reopening talks, and 39% were opposed. Supporters of joining the EU see it as important for international security and a chance for better integration in Europe, while opponents warn of the potential impact on fishing, agriculture, and Iceland’s sovereignty.In Fjordur, Iceland. Photo: Sean Gallup/Getty Images
Fishing is a particularly emotional topic of debate. It’s not only one of the country’s biggest exports but also deeply tied to Icelandic culture and identity.
Þorgerður urged Icelandic voters to “make up their own minds” and be careful about where they get their information. She said some political parties were spreading misinformation, similar to how critics believe UKIP did before the UK’s Brexit referendum.
“It’s like they’re following the playbook from Nigel Farage and Reform, and of course that’s concerning,” she said.
A spokesperson for Reform said: “Reform UK has no connection to Iceland.” They added: “We wish them well in staying outside of the EU.”
Þorgerður’s comments come after Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir warned that foreign influence in the referendum would “not be tolerated, whether from the European Union, China, Russia or the United States.”
President Halla Tómasdóttir warned about the dangers of AI. She said AI “can instantly produce content that seems believable but is misleading, spread unverified information very quickly, and influence our opinions and well-being in ways we don’t always notice.”
Hafsteinn Einarsson, an associate professor at the University of Iceland who studies AI, said he doesn’t think Iceland is ready to clearly inform the public about the referendum. He found that AI models often answer common questions about the referendum in Icelandic using unreliable sources, and it’s becoming easier for people to mass-produce misinformation with AI.
“This is what worries me: people looking for information ask their AI model about the referendum and related issues, get an answer, and might not even check the sources because they trust AI. Many of them just take it as fact,” Einarsson said.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on the news about Icelands foreign minister and the potential EU referendum
BeginnerLevel Questions
Q Why is Icelands foreign minister worried about a new EU referendum
A Hes worried it could become a Brexit moment This means he fears the debate could become deeply divisive emotional and focused on national identity rather than practical pros and cons potentially leading to a messy or regretted decision
Q What does Brexit moment mean in this context
A It refers to the UKs 2016 vote to leave the EU The term implies a highly political unpredictable referendum that splits the country causes longterm economic and political turmoil and has consequences that are hard to reverse
Q Is Iceland currently in the European Union
A No Iceland is a member of the European Economic Area and the Schengen Area which gives it access to the EUs single market and free movement but it is not a full EU member
Q Has Iceland tried to join the EU before
A Yes Iceland applied for membership in 2009 after the financial crisis but the government paused negotiations in 2013 and later withdrew the application without holding a final referendum
AdvancedLevel Questions
Q What are the main arguments for and against Iceland joining the EU
A For Full access to EU decisionmaking stronger trade ties and a common currency could help stabilize the economy Against Loss of control over fisheries loss of sovereignty and potential conflicts with Icelands independent foreign policy
Q How would a referendum on EU membership affect Icelands relationship with the EEA and Schengen
A If Iceland joined the EU it would automatically leave the EEA and Schengen as separate agreements becoming a full EU member If it voted no it would remain in the EEASchengen The risk of a Brexit moment is that a no vote could lead to political pressure to renegotiate or leave those agreements too
Q What specific concerns does the foreign minister have about the political climate in Iceland
