In Budapest today, bubble tea and all-day brunch—popular symbols of the social media era—are as common as historic coffee houses and tourists lining up for Danube cruises. But there’s something new in the EU’s only one-party state: politics is back.
For 15 years, Viktor Orbán’s election wins seemed inevitable. Now, a credible challenger has emerged. Péter Magyar is no savior—in fact, he comes from Orbán’s own Fidesz party. But polls suggest his relatively new, pro-western Tisza movement could defeat Orbán in April.
A change in leadership would matter far beyond Hungary. After years of Orbán blocking EU policies, the future of the union and European democracy itself are on the line.
Hungary is what analysts call an “informational autocracy.” Instead of jailing critics, Orbán uses more subtle methods to silence opposition and stay in power. His strategy relies on populist storytelling that turns public opinion against “liberal elites”—a approach that has kept his far-right government in place for 15 years, many argue at the cost of democracy and the rule of law, even beyond Europe.
Orbán’s model—undermining independent media, fueling culture wars, and weakening constitutional checks—may have inspired Donald Trump’s alleged attacks on U.S. democracy. A former U.S. ambassador to Hungary recently wrote, “I watched it happen in Hungary, now it’s happening here.” A new documentary about Orbán is being called essential viewing for Americans due to the parallels with Trump.
This style of politics is also influencing Europe’s populist right. Leaders like Andrej Babiš in the Czech Republic, Marine Le Pen in France, and parties in Poland and the UK reflect a trend that many see as rooted in Orbánism.
The Central European University stands as a symbol of Hungary’s role as a testing ground for reversing democracy. Once a beacon of academic freedom, its Budapest campus now sits empty, forced out by a 2017 law targeting its ties to George Soros. Last week, however, the halls were full again as Budapest’s progressive mayor hosted a democracy forum, urging European politicians to counter the narratives that fuel populism.
Whether Hungarians are ready for non-populist solutions remains unclear. According to analyst Zsuzsanna Szelényi, “Orbán fatigue” is widespread, even among his rural supporters. But for most people, the real concerns are economic: rising food prices, healthcare, and corruption. While opposition to Orbán’s crony-run system isn’t new, what has changed is the energy behind it. As one observer put it, “We’ve had a leadership crisis for 15 years—and that is over.””That’s what gives Magyar a chance,” said Szelényi.
Katalin Cseh, an opposition MP whose party has decided not to contest the election in order to maximize the chances of unseating Orbán, agrees that Magyar’s centre-right policies are unclear. “But we share a strong belief in restoring democracy and ending systemic corruption,” she said.
Weakened, but don’t write him off
Orbán has won four consecutive elections by a landslide. Underestimating him would be foolish.
However, Krekó, director of the independent Political Capital thinktank, sees a crack in the “total confidence” that has long defined the regime.
Orbán’s attempt to ban Budapest Pride in June backfired. The march turned out to be the largest ever, partly thanks to Karácsony—a massive display of rainbow flags and anti-government defiance.
Krekó also points to a Fidesz hesitation over a “chilling, draconian” bill that would have blacklisted organizations with any foreign ties. The bill has been put on hold, possibly due to internal Fidesz concerns that it could backfire.
“This shows the government is weaker than before; the economic situation is dire; in opinion polls it is lagging behind Tisza; diplomatically within the EU its lack of allies has become quite desperate,” Krekó said.
Yet Orbán still commands a formidable arsenal. A series of generous government-funded incentives, such as extra payments for pensioners and tax cuts for mothers with two or more children, are expected.
“In 2022, Fidesz spent 6% of Hungary’s GDP on transfers that people received before the elections. Many women and no one under 25 pays income tax anymore. We can expect more of the same this time,” Szelényi said.
Campaigns that demonize “enemies of the people” to discredit the opposition are another tried-and-tested method, Szelényi said. In the 2018 election, fears were stirred by linking refugees to terrorism. This time, it’s Ukrainians—Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s face appears as an enemy alongside Ursula von der Leyen on posters. Magyar is improbably portrayed as an agent of Kyiv.
“Orbán’s methodology is all about narratives and storytelling, threats and emotions,” Szelényi said. “Interestingly, migration is no longer discussed. By 2019 it was a non-issue because, of course, in Hungary we need migrants.” State agencies have quietly recruited hundreds of thousands of migrants from the Philippines and Vietnam to fill job vacancies.
Game of drones
Orbán’s dizzying geopolitical maneuvers—maintaining friendships with Trump, the Kremlin, and China simultaneously—could either work against him or help him stay in power.
Hungary is a NATO member. Russian military provocations, such as the incursion of Russian fighter jets into Estonia’s airspace, could make Orbán’s closeness to Putin difficult to defend. Even Trump is now saying NATO should shoot down Russian aircraft.
Some Hungarians, including Karácsony, want an end to Orbán’s ambivalence toward Russia. “My great-grandparents were taken…Many Hungarians were taken away to forced labor camps by Russian soldiers and never returned alive. These stories are deeply engraved in the Hungarian soul,” he said.
Meanwhile, energy deals continue to supply Hungarian consumers with cheap Russian oil and gas—at least for now.
Trump may be cautious about Hungary’s ties with China, but Orbán’s courtship of Beijing ensures investment for Hungary. In return, as Katalin Cseh noted, “China gains a Trojan horse within the European Union.”
The battle to control the narrative is intense. In the cramped basement rooms of Budapest’s Terror House, where visitors are presented with the Fidesz-approved version of 20th-century Hungarian history, a video plays on a loop. It shows a younger, leaner Orbán delivering a speech about the evils of foreign invaders to enthusiastic applause.
Szelényi was well acquainted with Orbán in the 1990s when they both served in Fidesz’s early leadership and the party was centrist and liberal. She left as he steered the party toward radicalization but recalls his reaction to losing the 2002 election. “That’s when he became very angry. He believed the loss was unjust and blamed liberal media elites. It became like a bug in his head.”
Now that his Christian nationalist ideals have made him a spiritual leader of a global MAGA-style movement, would he accept an electoral defeat at home? Szelényi finds it hard to imagine. “Orbán does not want to be defeated. He has completely restructured the Fidesz campaign and placed himself at the forefront.”
New EU rules banning political advertising on social media take effect next month, but Fidesz is building its own online army to spread Orbán’s message through so-called digital “fighters clubs.” Reflecting on the struggle to shape public opinion, Szelényi sighs. Whoever controls the narrative will win, she said.
“It will be a brutal campaign.”
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Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about the challenge to Viktor Orbán with clear and concise answers
General BeginnerLevel Questions
1 Who is Viktor Orbán
Viktor Orbán is the Prime Minister of Hungary He has been the countrys dominant political figure for most of the period since 2010 leading the Fidesz party
2 What is the serious challenge hes facing
In early 2024 a former insider from his party Péter Magyar publicly broke away and started a new political movement that has attracted large crowds to its rallies creating the most significant public opposition in over a decade
3 Why is this challenge considered more serious than previous ones
Previous opposition parties were often divided This new movement comes from within Orbáns own political circle giving it insider knowledge and a narrative that resonates with disillusioned voters leading to unusually large public support
4 What are the main criticisms against Orbán
Critics accuse his government of corruption weakening democratic institutions like the courts and media and maintaining close ties with Russia which has become a bigger issue since the war in Ukraine
Advanced InDepth Questions
5 What is Fidesz and how has it stayed in power for so long
Fidesz is the conservative nationalist political party led by Viktor Orbán It has maintained power through a combination of popular policies reshaping electoral districts to its advantage and having strong influence over most of the countrys media
6 Who is Péter Magyar and why is he a threat
Péter Magyar is a former Fidesz insider and the exhusband of a former Orbán minister He is a threat because he can credibly claim to know about the alleged corruption and inner workings of the government attracting voters who are tired of Orbán but distrust the old opposition
7 Can Orbán actually be toppled in the next election
It is very difficult in the short term Orbáns Fidesz party still has a strong loyal base of support and the electoral system favors them To be toppled all the fragmented opposition parties would need to unite behind a single candidate in each district which has been a major challenge in the past
8 What role does the European Union play in this
The EU has frozen billions of
