The bottling line at the Abovyan cognac factory in Armenia is running at full speed. Women in white coats and hairnets work the conveyor belt with practiced speed—labeling, stacking, loading pallets—racing to fill a truck. The spirit is headed for Russia. But it probably won’t make it there.
Last month, Moscow announced a ban on imports from Abovyan, along with two other major producers of Armenian cognac—the name used for Armenian brandy in Russia. The official reason was health concerns, but many see it as political pressure aimed at discouraging the country’s shift toward the West ahead of parliamentary elections on Sunday.
It’s the latest in a long line of recent trade restrictions—affecting everything from flowers and fish to fruit and its famous brandy—that the Kremlin has placed on a nation of 3 million people, which sends about 40% of its exports to nearby Russia.
“We just hope this all blows over,” said Samvel Goroyan, Abovyan’s director, in his office on the outskirts of the capital, Yerevan. “All our cognac is sold in Russia, 7 million bottles a year,” he shrugged. “We have nowhere else to go.”
For most of its post-Soviet history since 1991, Armenia was Moscow’s closest ally in the South Caucasus, which bridges eastern Europe and western Asia. It hosted Russian troops, bought Russian weapons, and joined Kremlin-led political and economic groups.
But the relationship has slowly fallen apart under the current prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, whose Civil Contract party came to power after a popular revolution in 2018. His push to steer Armenia toward Europe is the country’s biggest foreign policy shift since independence, and Sunday’s vote will test that policy—one Pashinyan is pursuing despite Armenia’s deep economic reliance on Russia.
“Moscow feels it is losing Armenia, that the country has gotten a bit too big for its boots,” said Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe. “So Moscow is trying to force Pashinyan to make a choice—for Russia.”
Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Armenia could face a “Ukrainian scenario” if it continued its European integration goals. Dmitry Medvedev, the hawkish deputy chair of Russia’s powerful security council, has hinted that Pashinyan could suffer the fate of Bolshevik leader Leon Trotsky, whom Joseph Stalin had killed with an ice pick.
Ties between the two countries first took a sharp downturn after Azerbaijan—which borders both—seized the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2023, triggering an exodus of over 100,000 ethnic Armenians from the area. For many Armenians, Russia’s response was a turning point. Despite being in a security alliance with Armenia and keeping peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh, Moscow stood by as Azerbaijan took control—exposing the limits of Russian security guarantees.
The loss led officials in Yerevan to openly question the value of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Moscow-led military alliance Armenia had long seen as the foundation of its security. Last year, Pashinyan suspended Armenia’s participation altogether.
The country further angered Moscow in April when it hosted a European Political Community summit—with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in attendance. In recent months, Pashinyan has not only talked about Armenia’s hopes to join the EU—a prospect that remainsArmenia is not only distant—it has also made progress with Washington. Donald Trump has publicly endorsed the country, while Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have both visited Yerevan. This shows a level of US political attention and economic involvement that Armenia has never experienced before.
For Moscow, Armenia’s shift toward the West comes at a particularly sensitive time. Four years into the grinding war in Ukraine, Russia is struggling to maintain its influence across the former Soviet sphere and beyond.
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Western leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, at April’s European Political Community summit in Yerevan. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA
Areg Kochinyan, president of the Yerevan-based Research Center on Security Policy, said: “Russians are worried about losing, in their view, yet another country that they see as their rightful sphere of interest. And they are acting on it.”
In Moldova and Hungary, the Kremlin has previously tried—without success—to support friendly political forces in elections using what Western intelligence services describe as a mix of disinformation campaigns and covert influence operations.
Analysts and Western officials say parts of the same strategy are now being used in Armenia. Kremlin support has gone to Pashinyan’s main challenger, Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian-Armenian billionaire whose Stronger Armenia party pushes for closer ties with Moscow. He is currently under house arrest on charges related to calls for seizing power.
But despite Moscow’s pressure, opinion polls suggest Pashinyan’s party is on track to comfortably become the largest political force, with about 30% of the vote, while Karapetyan trails at around 10%.
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Samvel Karapetyan, the Russian-backed opposition leader, on screen at a rally in Yerevan. Photograph: Anthony Pizzoferrato/AP
“What’s interesting is that this Russian campaign has backfired. It has only strengthened Pashinyan at home,” said Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center, a think tank based in Yerevan.
De Waal added that the Armenian opposition has largely discredited itself in the public’s eyes because of its perceived closeness to Russia. “Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party is likely to win the elections more or less by default,” De Waal said. “Not because the prime minister is still popular—he isn’t—but because Armenia’s opposition is even less competent or impressive and too tied to Russia.”
Analysts say Moscow has also been careful not to push too hard, as the Kremlin understands that excessive pressure could backfire and fuel more anti-Russian sentiment.
Hovhannes Nikoghosyan, an Armenian political scientist, said: “No one can confidently predict how far Moscow will continue its pressure if Pashinyan is re-elected. But if he stays in power, Russia will still have to find some way to work with the existing political landscape. Leaving Armenia to its geopolitical competitors is something the Kremlin will not want to do.”
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Tashir Street, a shopping district in Yerevan with various Western stores. Photograph: UCG/Universal Images Group/Getty Images
Pashinyan, a former journalist, has centered his campaign on what he calls the “crossroads of peace”—a vision of Armenia as a regional transit hub that reopens long-closed borders with Azerbaijan and its ally Turkey, moving the country beyond decades of conflict and poor connectivity.
He has also made it clear that, like many Armenians, he wants diversification rather than a complete break from Russia. Pashinyan has stressed that Moscow will keep its large military base in Armenia, and he said he would travel to meet Putin shortly after the elections.
Giragosian said: “Russia has such dominance that the West is not a peer competitor. Pashinyan’s policies are based on a re-Realistic assessment. Nobody is talking about replacing Russia with France, Europe, or the United States overnight.
Still, European leaders have made little secret of their preference for a Pashinyan victory. The Armenian prime minister has built especially close ties with French President Emmanuel Macron. The two even performed together during Macron’s visit to Armenia—Pashinyan played the drums while the French president sang at an official dinner.
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Macron sings as Armenia’s PM plays the drums during official dinner – video
That support has continued despite growing concerns about Pashinyan’s democratic record. Dozens of opposition activists have been detained ahead of the election, including allies of Karapetyan.
Those criticisms have largely been ignored in Brussels. On Thursday, eager to support Armenia’s shift away from Moscow, the EU announced an initial €50 million economic support package to help the country withstand Russian trade pressure, and promised further economic cooperation.
In a symbolic show of solidarity, Ukraine has also started importing Armenian roses after Russia banned flower imports.
But for all of Armenia’s efforts to diversify its partnerships, Moscow still holds powerful economic and political leverage. Russian officials have hinted in recent weeks that Armenia may no longer be able to count on the subsidized gas that supports much of its economy.
“When Russia demands to renegotiate the price of subsidized gas, that tells you Armenia has gone too far, too fast,” said Giragosian. “Then there will be a real crisis.”
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs about Armenia heading to the polls under pressure from Russia and the threat of a Ukrainian scenario
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 Why is Armenia having an election right now
Armenia is holding a snap parliamentary election The current government led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called for it to try to resolve a political crisis and get a fresh mandate after a difficult war with Azerbaijan
2 What does pressure from Russia mean in this context
Russia is Armenias traditional ally and has a military base there But lately Russia is unhappy with Pashinyan because he has criticized the Russialed security alliance for not helping Armenia in its conflict with Azerbaijan Russia is pressuring Armenia to stay loyal and not move closer to the West
3 What is the Ukrainian scenario threat
This refers to the idea that if Armenia turns too far away from Russia it could face a conflict similar to Ukraines This means Russia might stop protecting Armenia allow Azerbaijan to attack it or even try to destabilize the government from withinjust as it did with Ukraine in 2014
4 Who is the main person running in this election
The two main figures are Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and former President Robert Kocharyan
5 Is it safe for regular people to vote
Generally yes The election is being watched by international observers However there is tension in the country and some people fear that the election might not be entirely fair or that protests could break out
IntermediateLevel Questions
6 How did the war with Azerbaijan lead to this election
Armenia lost the 2020 NagornoKarabakh war badly Many Armenians blame Pashinyan for the defeat This caused huge protests and a political crisis Pashinyan resigned but stayed on as a caretaker and called this snap election to try to win back public trust
7 What does Russia want to see happen in this election
Russia wants a leader who will keep Armenia in its sphere of influence They prefer Robert Kocharyan who is proRussian and promises to keep the military alliance strong They want to avoid Pashinyan winning because he has been pushing
