Layin tara kwalba a masana'antar cognac ta Abovyan a Armenia yana aiki da sauri. Mata sanye da fararen riguna da hulunan gashi suna aiki da bel din kai da gwanintar da aka saba—suna lakabi, suna tara, suna lodin pallets—suna gaggawa don cika babbar mota. Ruhun yana kan hanyar zuwa Rasha. Amma tabbas ba zai isa can ba.
A watan da ya gabata, Moscow ta sanar da haramcin shigo da kayayyaki daga Abovyan, tare da wasu manyan masana'antun cognac na Armenia guda biyu—sunan da ake amfani da shi ga brandy na Armenia a Rasha. Dalilin hukuma shine damuwa game da lafiya, amma mutane da yawa suna ganin shi matsin lamba ne na siyasa da nufin hana karkatar da ƙasar zuwa Yamma kafin zaben majalisar dokoki a ranar Lahadi.
Wannan shine na baya-bayan nan a cikin jerin takunkumin kasuwanci na baya-bayan nan—wanda ya shafi komai daga furanni da kifi zuwa 'ya'yan itace da shahararren brandy dinta—wanda Kremlin ta sanya wa al'ummar mutane miliyan 3, wacce ke aika kusan kashi 40% na kayayyakin da take fitarwa zuwa Rasha makwabciyarta.
"Muna fatan wannan duka ya wuce," in ji Samvel Goroyan, darektan Abovyan, a ofishinsa da ke bayan birnin Yerevan. "Duk cognac dinmu ana sayarwa a Rasha, kwalba miliyan 7 a shekara," ya girgiza kafadarsa. "Ba mu da wani wurin da za mu je."
Ga mafi yawan tarihinta bayan Tarayyar Soviet tun daga 1991, Armenia ita ce babbar abokiyar Moscow a Kudancin Caucasus, wacce ke haɗa gabashin Turai da yammacin Asiya. Ta karbi sojojin Rasha, ta sayi makaman Rasha, kuma ta shiga kungiyoyin siyasa da tattalin arziki karkashin jagorancin Kremlin.
Amma dangantakar ta fara wargaje a hankali a karkashin firaminista na yanzu, Nikol Pashinyan, wanda jam'iyyarsa ta Civil Contract ta hau mulki bayan juyin juya halin jama'a a 2018. Yunkurinsa na jagorantar Armenia zuwa Turai shine babban canjin manufofin ketare na kasar tun bayan samun 'yancin kai, kuma zaben ranar Lahadi zai gwada wannan manufar—wanda Pashinyan ke bi duk da dogaron Armenia mai zurfi ga Rasha.
"Moscow tana jin tana rasa Armenia, cewa kasar ta dan yi girma da takalmanta," in ji Thomas de Waal, babban jami'in Carnegie Europe. "Don haka Moscow tana kokarin tilasta Pashinyan ya yi zabi—na Rasha."
A watan da ya gabata, shugaban Rasha Vladimir Putin ya yi gargadin cewa Armenia na iya fuskantar "yanayin Ukraine" idan ta ci gaba da manufofinta na hadewa da Turai. Dmitry Medvedev, mataimakin shugaban kwamitin tsaro mai karfi na Rasha, ya nuna cewa Pashinyan na iya fuskantar makomar shugaban Bolshevik Leon Trotsky, wanda Joseph Stalin ya kashe da tsinken kankara.
Dangantaka tsakanin kasashen biyu ta fara tabarbarewa sosai bayan da Azerbaijan—wacce ke iyaka da su duka—ta kwace yankin Nagorno-Karabakh da ake takaddama a kai a 2023, wanda ya haifar da gudun hijirar 'yan kabilar Armenia sama da 100,000 daga yankin. Ga 'yan Armenia da yawa, martanin Rasha ya zama wani muhimmin lokaci. Duk da kasancewarta a kawancen tsaro da Armenia da kuma ajiye dakarun wanzar da zaman lafiya a Nagorno-Karabakh, Moscow ta yi shiru yayin da Azerbaijan ta karbe iko—wanda ya bayyana iyakokin garantin tsaro na Rasha.
Rashin ya sa jami'ai a Yerevan suka fara tambayar darajar Kungiyar Yarjejeniyar Tsaro ta Gama Kari (CSTO), kawancen tsaro karkashin jagorancin Moscow wanda Armenia ta dade tana ganin shi ne tushen tsaronta. A bara, Pashinyan ya dakatar da shigar Armenia gaba daya.
Kasar ta kara fusatar da Moscow a watan Afrilu lokacin da ta karbi bakuncin taron Kungiyar Siyasar Turai—tare da shugaban Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy a halarta. A 'yan watannin nan, Pashinyan ba wai kawai ya yi magana game da fatan Armenia na shiga EU ba—wanda har yanzu ba shi da kusanci—amma kuma ya sami ci gaba tare da Washington. Donald Trump ya amince da kasar a fili, yayin da mataimakin shugaban kasa JD Vance da sakataren harkokin wajen Amurka Marco Rubio duk suka ziyarci Yerevan. Wannan yana nuna matakin kulawar siyasa da shigar tattalin arziki na Amurka wanda Armenia ba ta taba samun irinsa ba.
Ga Moscow, karkatar da Armenia zuwa Yamma yana zuwa a wani lokaci mai matukar muhimmanci. Shekaru hudu cikin yakin Ukraine mai tsanani, Rasha tana kokawa don kiyaye tasirinta a fadin tsohuwar Tarayyar Soviet da kuma bayanta.
Areg Kochinyan, shugaban Cibiyar Bincike kan Manufofin Tsaro da ke Yerevan, ya ce: "Rashawa suna damuwa game da rasa, a ganinsu, wata kasa da suke ganin ta zama yankin sha'awarsu ta gaskiya. Kuma suna aiwatar da hakan."
A Moldova da Hungary, Kremlin a baya ta yi kokari—ba tare da nasara ba—don tallafawa dakarun siyasa masu abokantaka a zabuka ta hanyar amfani da abin da hukumomin leken asirin Yamma suka bayyana a matsayin hadakar yakin farfaganda da ayyukan tasiri na boye.
Manazarta da jami'an Yamma sun ce sassan wannan dabarar ana amfani da su a Armenia yanzu. Taimakon Kremlin ya tafi ga babban mai kalubalantar Pashinyan, Samvel Karapetyan, hamshakin attajirin Rasha-Armenia wanda jam'iyyarsa ta Stronger Armenia ke matsa don kulla alaka da Moscow. A halin yanzu yana tsare a gida bisa tuhume-tuhumen da suka shafi kiran kwace mulki.
Amma duk da matsin lamba na Moscow, kuri'un jin ra'ayin jama'a sun nuna cewa jam'iyyar Pashinyan na kan hanyar zama babbar kungiyar siyasa cikin sauki, tare da kusan kashi 30% na kuri'u, yayin da Karapetyan ke baya da kusan kashi 10%.
"Abin sha'awa shi ne cewa wannan yakin neman zaben Rasha ya ci tura. Ya kara karfafa Pashinyan a gida," in ji Richard Giragosian, darektan Cibiyar Nazarin Yanki, wata cibiyar tunani da ke Yerevan.
De Waal ya kara da cewa 'yan adawar Armenia sun yi wa kansu rashin amana a idon jama'a saboda kusancinsu da Rasha. "Jam'iyyar Civil Contract ta Pashinyan tana da yuwuwar lashe zaben da kyar," in ji De Waal. "Ba don firaminista har yanzu yana da farin jini ba—ba ya da shi—amma saboda 'yan adawar Armenia ma ba su da iyawa ko kuma ba su da ban sha'awa kuma sun dogara da Rasha."
Manazarta sun ce Moscow ta kuma yi taka tsantsan don kada ta matsa da yawa, saboda Kremlin ta fahimci cewa matsin lamba mai yawa na iya ci tura kuma ya kara rura wutar kyamar Rasha.
Hovhannes Nikoghosyan, masanin siyasa na Armenia, ya ce: "Babu wanda zai iya hasashen da tabbaci yadda Moscow za ta ci gaba da matsin lamba idan aka sake zabar Pashinyan. Amma idan ya ci gaba da mulki, Rasha har yanzu za ta sami wata hanya ta yin aiki da yanayin siyasar da ke akwai. Barin Armenia ga masu fafatawa a fannin geopolitical abu ne da Kremlin ba za ta so ta yi ba."
Pashinyan, tsohon dan jarida, ya mayar da yakin neman zabensa kan abin da ya kira "mararrabar zaman lafiya"—wani hangen nesa na Armenia a matsayin cibiyar sufuri ta yanki wacce za ta sake bude kan iyakokin da aka dade a rufe da Azerbaijan da kawayenta Turkiyya, ta kai kasar bayan shekaru na rikici da rashin hadin kai.
Ya kuma bayyana karara cewa, kamar yawancin 'yan Armenia, yana son rarrabuwa maimakon rabuwa gaba daya da Rasha. Pashinyan ya jaddada cewa Moscow za ta ci gaba da rike babban sansaninta na soja a Armenia, kuma ya ce zai tafi ya gana da Putin jim kadan bayan zaben.
Giragosian ya ce: "Rasha tana da irin wannan rinjaye ta yadda Yamma ba ta zama abokiyar hamayya ba. Manufofin Pashinyan sun dogara ne akan kimantawa na gaskiya. Babu wanda ke magana game da maye gurbin Rasha da Faransa, Turai, ko Amurka nan take."
Duk da haka, shugabannin Turai ba su boye sha'awarsu ga nasarar Pashinyan ba. Firaministan Armenia ya kulla alaka ta musamman da shugaban Faransa Emmanuel Macron. Su biyun ma sun yi wasa tare yayin ziyarar Macron a Armenia—Pashinyan ya buga ganga yayin da shugaban Faransa ya rera waka a wani liyafar hukuma.
Wannan goyon baya ya ci gaba duk da karuwar damuwa game da rikodin dimokuradiyya na Pashinyan. An kama 'yan adawa da dama kafin zaben, ciki har da abokan Karapetyan.
Wadannan suka an yi watsi da su sosai a Brussels. A ranar Alhamis, saboda sha'awar tallafawa karkatar da Armenia daga Moscow, EU ta sanar da wani shirin taimakon tattalin arziki na farko na Yuro miliyan 50 don taimakawa kasar ta jure matsin lambar kasuwanci ta Rasha, kuma ta yi alkawarin kara hadin gwiwar tattalin arziki.
A wata alama ta nuna hadin kai, Ukraine ma ta fara shigo da wardi na Armenia bayan da Rasha ta haramta shigo da furanni.
Amma duk da kokarin Armenia na rarraba kawancenta, Moscow har yanzu tana da karfin tattalin arziki da siyasa. Jami'an Rasha sun yi nuni a 'yan makonnin nan cewa Armenia na iya rashin samun damar dogaro da iskar gas da ake tallafawa wanda ke tallafawa yawancin tattalin arzikinta.
"Lokacin da Rasha ta bukaci a sake tattauna farashin iskar gas da ake tallafawa, wannan yana nuna maka Armenia ta wuce gona da iri, da sauri," in ji Giragosian. "Sannan za a sami rikici na gaske."
**Tambayoyin da Aka Yi Yawa**
Ga jerin tambayoyin da aka yi yawa game da Armenia da ke zuwa zaben karkashin matsin lamba daga Rasha da barazanar yanayin Ukraine
**Tambayoyi na Matakin Farko**
1. Me yasa Armenia ke yin zabe a yanzu?
Armenia tana gudanar da zaben majalisar dokoki na gaggawa. Gwamnatin da ke karkashin jagorancin Firaminista Nikol Pashinyan ta yi kira don kokarin warware rikicin siyasa da samun sabon izini bayan yaki mai wahala da Azerbaijan.
2. Menene matsin lamba daga Rasha ke nufi a wannan mahallin?
Rasha ita ce abokiyar gargajiya ta Armenia kuma tana da sansanin soja a can. Amma kwanan nan Rasha ba ta jin dadin Pashinyan saboda ya soki kawancen tsaro karkashin jagorancin Rasha don rashin taimakawa Armenia a rikicinta da Azerbaijan. Rasha tana matsa wa Armenia lamba don ta kasance da aminci kuma kada ta matsa kusa da Yamma.
3. Menene barazanar yanayin Ukraine?
Wannan yana nufin ra'ayin cewa idan Armenia ta juya da nisa daga Rasha, tana iya fuskantar rikici irin na Ukraine. Wannan na nufin Rasha na iya dakatar da kare Armenia, barin Azerbaijan ta kai mata hari, ko ma kokarin tada zaune tsaye a cikin gwamnati—kamar yadda ta yi da Ukraine a 2014.
4. Wanene babban mutumin da ke takara a wannan zabe?
Manyan mutane biyu sune Firaminista Nikol Pashinyan da tsohon shugaban kasa Robert Kocharyan.
5. Shin yana da lafiya ga talakawa su kada kuri'a?
Gaba daya eh. Ana kallon zaben da masu sa ido na kasa da kasa. Duk da haka, akwai tashin hankali a kasar kuma wasu mutane suna tsoron cewa zaben ba zai kasance cikin gaskiya ba ko kuma ana iya samun zanga-zanga.
**Tambayoyi na Matakin Tsaka-tsaki**
6. Ta yaya yakin da Azerbaijan ya kai ga wannan zabe?
Armenia ta yi rashin nasara a yakin Nagorno-Karabakh na 2020 da mugun hali. 'Yan Armenia da yawa suna zargin Pashinyan da shan kaye. Wannan ya haifar da zanga-zanga da rikicin siyasa. Pashinyan ya yi murabus amma ya ci gaba da zama a matsayin mai kula da mulki kuma ya kira wannan zaben gaggawa don kokarin dawo da amincewar jama'a.
7. Menene Rasha ke son ganin ya faru a wannan zabe?
Rasha tana son shugaba wanda zai kiyaye Armenia a cikin tasirinta. Sun fi son Robert Kocharyan, wanda ke goyon bayan Rasha kuma ya yi alkawarin karfafa kawancen soja. Suna son guje wa nasarar Pashinyan saboda ya matsa zuwa Yamma.
