When Mario Draghi, the former head of the European Central Bank and Italy’s prime minister, proposed a plan for Europe to match the economic strength of the US and China, one of his suggestions was working together on defense. Instead of each European country building its own version of a boat, tank, or jet, they should share costs and technologies among allies.
But Europe seems to have stumbled right away. In June, Germany’s chancellor, Friedrich Merz, and France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, had to scrap the joint future combat air system after struggling to cooperate since 2018.
Since then, defense executives have been asking one big question over the summer: what happens now? France looks ready to move forward with its own fighter jet, but Germany is left wondering if it will have its own aircraft. It might end up as a secondary buyer of the rival Tempest jet, which is part of the global combat air programme (GCAP) led by the UK, Italy, and Japan.
Meanwhile, in the UK, the summer has been focused on the future of military spending. This follows John Healey’s resignation as defense secretary in June over spending commitments, his return under Chancellor Andy Burnham, and ongoing questions about when the UK will hit its goal of spending 3% of GDP on defense.
Militaries are rushing to develop sixth-generation fighters, building on the first jets from World War II. The Tempest and the US’s F47 are being designed to rule the skies with AI technology, better stealth, and swarms of drones flying alongside. (The F47 is named after Donald Trump, the 47th US president, at least until a Democrat takes the White House.)
France and Germany’s project fell apart due to disagreements between France’s Dassault Aviation and Germany-based Airbus Defence and Space over who would take the lead. France also reportedly wanted a smaller jet that could land on its aircraft carriers, but Germany has no carriers.
The final blow came last week when French engine maker Safran said it would stop its joint work with Germany’s MTU Aero Engines on building engines for the fighter jet.
A European defense chief recently admitted that it wasn’t impossible to have as many as three European fighter jets if Germany tried to build its own (possibly with partners) to compete with GCAP and France. “It wouldn’t be ideal,” the boss said, looking a bit embarrassed.
Three is too many, according to almost anyone who doesn’t have a financial stake in getting a share of the work.
“No way we end up with three,” said a UK-based consultant who works with many of the big prime manufacturers. “There’s no order book for that. You need an order book to make these cost-effective.”
The same person thinks it’s unlikely there will even be two European fighters, given the tight finances. Fighter jet programs are seen as successful in industrial terms if they can produce hundreds—around 600 is considered a good target. That’s far more than any single European air force needs. France has 228 Rafale fighter jets in service, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a thinktank.
Dassault is determined to keep going. Éric Trappier, the CEO of Dassault Aviation, said last month that a next-generation combat jet could be built solely in France or with other partners. He wants a demonstrator flying as early as 2031.
This story is already familiar to many in the defense industry. In the early 1980s, European nations were looking at building a fourth generation of fighter jets. France joined Italy, Spain, West Germany, and Britain in a joint effort. But disputes over work share and the final product’s capabilities grew until France pulled out. Dassault ended up building theRafale, while the other four countries are still working on the Eurofighter Typhoon, 30 years after its first flight. Still, some people doubt that Dassault could build something with the same stealth capabilities as other sixth-generation jets. Dassault might create a “Rafale plus” or “Super Rafale” with newer radar, weapons, digital systems, and an upgraded engine, but without a full redesign to make it truly cutting-edge. The Rafale upgrade already planned for the early 2030s will be able to work alongside stealth drones.
Another big question—one every air force faces, including the US and the GCAP partners—is whether a crewed fighter will be outdated by the time it’s operating in 2035. For now, though, the industry seems to agree that crewed fighters will still be needed, but they’ll be surrounded by a swarm of “loyal wingmen” drones, like BAE Systems’ Brontanax, which can be sent into danger beyond the horizon while the crewed jet stays further back.
For Germany, that leaves the somewhat awkward option of asking to join GCAP. Canada joined GCAP at July’s Farnborough airshow, but only as an “observer.” That could put it at the front of the line to buy products, but it doesn’t give it the politically valuable manufacturing jobs that come with being a core partner. (Wealthy Saudi Arabia is also pushing to join, though it doesn’t have much technological expertise to offer and would face heavy criticism over its human rights record.)
“They are very expensive platforms, and having guaranteed orders for them is very helpful,” said Kevin Craven, chief executive of ADS, the UK aerospace and defence lobby group. “I think there’s a growing understanding across Europe and Nato that these very expensive platforms require collaboration.” He added that there are “elements of the sixth-generation programmes that could work across Europe.”
Some of the industrial partners are open to Germany joining. Lorenzo Mariani, chief executive of Leonardo, Italy’s lead defence company in GCAP, said Germany would be a “positive element” and a “strong financial partner, financially the strongest in Europe.” However, he acknowledged that another core partner could increase the risk of delays.
An artist’s impression shows two next-generation fighter jets flying near Mount Fuji in Japan. The UK is developing a jet with Italy and Japan. Photograph: Japanese defence ministry/EPA
Reopening talks to let in another core member could be tricky. The UK, Italy, and Japan set up a joint venture called Edgewing to build the Tempest. Marco Zoff, Edgewing’s chief executive, said its goal was “creating the conditions not to fight.” Another insider described it as “having all our fights at the start” over who gets what work, clearing the way for rapid development to get it in the air by 2035.
Tufan Erginbilgiç, chief executive of Rolls-Royce, which makes the Tempest jet engine, told reporters at Farnborough that “I don’t think it will negatively impact GCAP at all” if Germany joins—though he wouldn’t say whether Rolls could share work with MTU. “It is not surprising that more countries are interested, and that will make the programme even more successful because to me it means more markets,” he said.
Michael Schoellhorn, chief executive of Airbus Defence and Space, told reporters in London that the company would join something where they could “have a significant portion of the work and the leadership. That’s currently being explored.”
Yet once European executives return from their summer holidays, they’ll need to move quickly if they want to avoid the fragmentation Draghi warned about. Failing to do so could risk repeating past mistakes of building several alternatives that all have to compete against each other for export orders. A European cA consultant who works in the defence industry said: “It would mean we don’t learn.”
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs about the current chaos surrounding Europes fighter jet plans written in a natural tone with clear direct answers
General Questions The Big Picture
1 Wait what exactly is going on with Europes fighter jets Why is it chaos
Europe is currently trying to build two separate nextgeneration fighter jets the FrancoGermanSpanish FCAS and the BritishJapaneseItalian GCAP The chaos comes from a mix of political infighting between partner nations disagreements over who gets the biggest slice of the industrial pie and delays in signing off on key development phases Its a lot of talking and not enough building
2 Are we talking about the Eurofighter Typhoon or the Rafale
No Those are the current generation of fighters The chaos is about their successors The Eurofighter and Rafale are expected to fly into the 2040s but Europe needs a brandnew jet ready by around 2040 to replace them Thats what FCAS and GCAP are for
3 Why does Europe need a new fighter jet anyway
Because the current jets are reaching the end of their design life and more importantly they arent designed to fight the wars of the future Nextgen jets are built to work with swarms of drones use advanced stealth to avoid radar and process massive amounts of data using AI to help the pilot make decisions faster than any human could alone
4 What are the two main projects called and who is in them
There are two rival programs
FCAS Led by France and Germany with Spain also on board
GCAP Led by the UK Japan and Italy
Deep Dive The Problems and Politics
5 Why cant they just all work together on one jet
Thats the milliondollar question The main blocker is national pride and sovereignty France wants to keep its industrial independence Germany wants to ensure its own companies get a fair share and the UK is worried about sharing its sensitive technology secrets with European rivals Everyone wants to be the lead nation and nobody wants
