Analysis shows that Donald Trump now holds significant leverage over European energy supplies, as Europe has shifted from depending on Russian gas to relying on the United States. This change stems partly from the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russian pipeline gas, leading European nations to depend on shipments of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG), according to a report by the Clingendael Institute, the Ecologic Institute, and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs.
The situation carries considerable risks, especially as Trump has moved toward a more openly self-interested, protectionist, and ideologically driven approach. Recently, he threatened to impose tariffs on European allies to pressure them into supporting his bid to acquire Greenland, which is part of Denmark—an EU and NATO member.
Trump’s national security strategy, published in November, explicitly aims for U.S. “energy dominance,” stating it enables America to “project power” when needed.
Data reveals that U.S. LNG imports to the European Economic Area (EEA)—which includes the EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway—rose by 61% in 2025. Compared to 2019, imports surged by 485%, with U.S. LNG now making up 59% of the EU’s total LNG imports as of December.
In 2024, the UK met half of its gas demand domestically and 33% through imports from the EEA. The remainder came from LNG, with U.S. shipments accounting for 68% of those imports.
Meanwhile, pipeline gas from Russia, which supplied 60% of EEA gas imports in 2019, fell to just 8% by 2025.
Professor Kacper Szulecki of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs noted, “We must recognize the new reality of Donald Trump’s American energy dominance and view Europe’s imports with caution. The 2025 U.S. national security strategy clearly frames energy exports as a tool for projecting power. The U.S. tried a similar approach under Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, urging Europe to avoid gas trade with the USSR. But back then, LNG technology didn’t exist, leaving Europe reliant on Russian pipeline gas.”
Szulecki warned of short-term risks, including higher energy bills due to recent tensions. “EU gas reserves are currently very low—the lowest in years and below pre-Ukraine war levels. A cold winter combined with tensions with the U.S. could lead to further price hikes and depleted reserves, potentially causing a severe energy crisis in the coming months,” he said.
He added that while the EU is considering retaliatory trade measures over the Greenland tariffs, policymakers in Brussels admit there is no immediate alternative to U.S. gas.
Raffaele Piria, who initiated the report and is a senior researcher at the Ecologic Institute, pointed out that the UK, despite being outside the EU single market, faces the same vulnerabilities as its European neighbors. “The UK is exposed to the same geopolitical and economic risks as the EEA and is fully integrated into Europe’s gas grid and market,” he said.
“Since the invasion of Ukraine, the EU has paid a high price for relying on Russian energy. The U.S. seemed like a reliable alternative. Historically, U.S. government interference in gas markets to pressure Europe was considered unthinkable. In today’s geopolitical climate, that assumption is no longer certain.”
The report concludes that Europe must take action, given that energy—especially gas—exports are increasingly used as strategic leverage. In the medium to long term, Europe should “accelerate the transition to an efficient, modern energy system based on domestic renewable sources.”He says.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about the topic Study reveals Trumps increasing influence over EU and UK energy supplies designed to be clear and conversational
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What is this study basically saying
The study suggests that if Donald Trump wins the next US election his policies could significantly impact Europes energy security It highlights Europes continued reliance on imported US liquefied natural gas and how a potential Trump administration might use that as political leverage
2 Why does Europe need US energy
Since drastically reducing pipeline gas imports from Russia after its invasion of Ukraine the European Union and UK have turned to the US to fill the gap The US has become the worlds top LNG exporter and Europe is now its biggest customer
3 What kind of influence are we talking about
The concern is that a future US administration could attach political conditions to energy deals such as demanding European support for specific foreign policies or trade agreements in exchange for stable affordable LNG supplies
4 Is this just about natural gas
Primarily yesLNG is the immediate concern However influence could extend to broader energy technology cooperation and shared climate goals which might be deprioritized
Advanced Strategic Questions
5 What specific policies from a potential Trump administration are causing concern
Key concerns include a potential push for renegotiated longterm LNG contracts favoring US terms a withdrawal of support for Ukraine and the possible reinstatement of tariffs on European goods which could be linked to energy talks
6 How does this affect Europes climate goals
A heavy reliance on US LNG a fossil fuel could slow Europes transition to renewables Furthermore if the US withdraws from global climate initiatives it creates less international pressure and could weaken political will for costly green transitions in Europe
7 What is Europes main strategy to reduce this vulnerability
The core strategies are acceleration of homegrown renewable energy improving energy efficiency diversifying LNG suppliers restarting or extending the life of some nuclearcoal plants as a backup and building more strategic gas storage
