Mamakin nasarar gagarumin rinjayen 'yan ra'ayin mazan jiya a zaben jihar Jamus ya ci gaba da yin kara har zuwa Lahadi, amma ba kowa ya ji haushi ba. Da kyar bayanan farko na zaben Saxony-Anhalt suka fito, sai Donald Trump ya raba sakamakon a shafinsa na Truth Social, yana mai bayyana farin cikinsa game da barnar da aka yi wa jam'iyyar Christian Democrats (CDU) mai ra'ayin tsakiya-mazan jiya da kuma hawan jam'iyyar Alternative for Germany (AfD) mai ra'ayin mazan jiya.
Wannan babban rauni ne ga shugaban CDU Friedrich Merz, wanda jam'iyyarsa ta rasa fiye da rabin kujerunta a majalisar dokokin jihar, yayin da AfD ta tashi daga kujeru 23 zuwa 39. Wannan shi ne akasin abin da Merz ya yi alkawari a lokacin da ya tsaya takara. Ya dage cewa da kyakkyawan shugabanci a karkashin jagorancinsa, zai sauƙaƙa rage goyon bayan AfD da rabi. Shugabannin AfD ba su ɓata lokaci ba wajen yin amfani da wannan babban ciwon a jawabansu na nasara, inda Alice Weidel ma ta yi taƙama cewa CDU ba za ta "taɓa cin zabe ba har abada."
Idan muka ajiye girman kai na AfD a gefe, wannan girgizar siyasa ce mai tasirin da ya wuce ƙaramin jiha a tsakiyar Jamus. Girgizar tana ci gaba da yaɗuwa. Da farko, ba a san ko Merz zai iya riƙe haɗin gwiwarsa ba kuma ya ci gaba da zama shugaban gwamnati, da kuma har yaushe.
Gaskiya ne, asarar a Saxony-Anhalt ba laifinsa kai tsaye ba ne. Amma wannan kawai saboda ba shi da farin jini har jam'iyyarsa ba ta so ya yi yaƙin neman zabe ba. Ba a saka hoton Merz a kowane fosta ba, kuma lokacin da ya ziyarci babban birnin jihar, Magdeburg, an kiyaye jama'a sosai. Wannan yana nuna komai game da matsayinsa a cikin jam'iyyarsa.
Za a yi ƙarin zabuka biyu a ranar 20 ga Satumba, a Berlin da kuma jihar bakin teku ta Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Dangane da yanayin da ake ciki, CDU na fuskantar ƙarin shan kaye biyu. Jagorancin Merz ya zama nauyi, kuma da alama za a ƙalubalanci shi ba da daɗewa ba. A yanzu, kawai rashin ingantaccen madadin da kuma yawan matsalolin tsarin mulki da ke hana sauyin shugabanci kwatsam a Jamus ne ke kare shi.
Shi ne fuskar jama'a na rikicin rashin amincewa da shugabancin Jamus, amma ba shi kaɗai ne sanadin ba. Girman wannan lokacin ya wuce siyasar jam'iyyu. Jamus na shiga wani lokaci na tashin hankalin siyasa inda ake tambayar ainihin ƙimar jamhuriyar bayan yaƙi.
Mafi shahara, wannan ya shafi yarjejeniyar adawa da fashist na "ba za a taɓa sake ba," wadda aka gina tsawon shekaru ta hanyar muhawara mai zurfi game da kisan Holocaust da laifukan Wehrmacht. AfD ta yi nasarar kai hari ga yarjejeniyar ƙasa cewa fuskantar tarihin Nazi yana da muhimmanci ga dimokuradiyya a Jamus. Sakon jam'iyyar akasin haka ne: cewa al'adun tunawa cuta ce ta "rashin asali" da ke hana Jamus ci gaba. Wani muhimmin ɓangare na manufar AfD shine cewa za ta iya "warkar da" ƙasar ta hanyar rage laifinta da kuma mayar da hankali ga girman Jamus.
Wannan shine dalilin da ya sa Charlotte Knobloch, wadda ta tsira daga Holocaust tana da shekaru 93 kuma tsohuwar shugabar Majalisar Yahudawa ta Tsakiya a Jamus, ta bayyana "tsoro" game da sakamakon. Knobloch ta ce tana "kokawa, a irin waɗannan ranaku, don gane ƙasata," tana ƙara da cewa: "A cikin mafi munin mafarkina, ban taɓa tunanin cewa masu ra'ayin mazan jiya za su sake cin zabe ta wannan hanyar ba." Tana da gaskiya game da damuwarta. Ƙungiyar AfD ta Saxony-Anhalt an tabbatar da ita ta hanyar leƙen asirin cikin gida a matsayin ɗaya daga cikin masu tsattsauran ra'ayi a ƙasar. Tsofaffin masu ra'ayin Nazi masu tsauri suna riƙe da mukamai masu tasiri.
Wani siffa na musamman na 'yan mazan jiya na Jamus, idan aka kwatanta da Faransa ko Italiya, galibi ana watsi da shi. AfD a fili ta bambanta da sauran jam'iyyun populist na dama a Turai: tana ƙara tsattsauran ra'ayi yayin da take ƙara kusantar mulki. Shugabancin Magdeburg yana ɗaukar da yawa daga cikin tsofaffin membobin ƙungiyoyin neo-Nazi da aka dakatar. Waɗannan mutane na iya zama a manyan mukamai a jihar nan ba da daɗewa ba, suna kula da 'yan sanda, hukumar leƙen asirin cikin gida (Verfassungsschutz), bangaren shari'a, da ilimi. Alama ce ta yadda al'amura ke taɓarɓarewa. A ƙasata, ƙa'idodin siyasa suna da irin wannan yanayi har wannan sakamako mai ban mamaki da ƙyar ya shiga cikin bayanan zaben. Ƙa'idar Jamus ta hana masu ra'ayin mazan jiya riƙe ikon zartarwa ta fara ɓacewa.
Hare-haren AfD kan manyan jam'iyyu, waɗanda suke kira "tsofaffin jam'iyyu," suna da yanayin zamanin Weimar, suna kama da farfagandar ƙiyayya game da "tsarin" da aka ƙi shekaru ɗari da suka wuce. Ba mamaki cewa littattafai game da ƙarshen Jamhuriyar Weimar suna sayarwa da kyau a yanzu.
AfD ba jam'iyya ce ta al'ada ba. Ya kamata a ɗauke ta a matsayin ƙungiyar juyin juya hali (ko kuma ta adawa) da ke nufin canza tsarin daga ciki. Manufofin shugabanninta sun wuce canje-canjen manufofi na musamman. Dubi ƙaura, wani muhimmin batu: buƙatun mafaka na raguwa da sauri—ya ragu da kashi 48% a watan Yuli 2026 idan aka kwatanta da wannan watan a bara—wani ɓangare saboda matakan ƙuntatawa daga gwamnatin Merz.
Duk da haka, 'yan mazan jiya masu tsauri suna girma kuma suna ƙara tsattsauran ra'ayi. A tsakiyarsu akwai ra'ayin ƙabilar Jamus da ke da ƙarancin baƙi gwargwadon iko. Kira na jam'iyyar na "mayar da ƙaura" ba kawai ya shafi "baƙi ba bisa ƙa'ida ba" amma duk baƙi (da zuriyarsu) waɗanda ke da asalin ƙasashen waje da ba a so.
Shugabancin ya ƙirƙiro kalma don abin da suke so su guje wa: sun yi alkawarin ba za su zama "Melonised" ba (kamar Meloni). Giorgia Meloni, duk da tarihinta na neo-fashist, ta ba da mamaki ga mutane da yawa ta hanyar matsawa zuwa tsakiyar al'ada—tana goyon bayan Ukraine, tana goyon bayan yankin Euro, NATO, da kuma ƴancin motsi a cikin EU.
AfD, akasin haka, ta yi alkawarin barin EU da yankin Euro da kuma kawo ƙarshen yarjejeniyar Schengen. Tana goyon bayan Rasha sosai kuma tana son yanke duk wani tallafi ga Ukraine, gami da mayar da 'yan gudun hijira. Tsoron faɗaɗa rikici da Rasha ya taka rawar gani sosai a zaben. Hare-haren da aka kai a kwanan nan a filin jirgin sama na Leipzig da sauran ababen more rayuwa na iya taimakawa wajen daidaita ma'auni: Merz ya zargi Rasha kuma ya yi alkawarin "sa masu laifi su biya." Wannan ya zama cikakken abu don yaƙin neman zaɓe na AfD. Barin Ukraine, kusantar Rasha, da sake buɗe bututun Nord Stream a Baltic duk an tsara su a matsayin "manufar zaman lafiya." Wannan kuma nasara ce ga Vladimir Putin.
Menene zai faru a gaba? Ba tare da cikakken rinjaye ba, AfD na iya buƙatar taimako daga ƙaramar jam'iyyar da ta rabu. Shugabancin Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), wadda ta balle daga Die Linke mai tsaurin ra'ayi na hagu, na iya zama a shirye su taimaka. Suna wakiltar wani sabon nau'in kishin ƙasa na hagu wanda ke adawa da baƙi sosai kuma yana goyon bayan Rasha—a wannan ma'anar, suna daidaita da AfD. Duk da haka, kafa gwamnati a Magdeburg ba zai zama da sauƙi ba, kuma akwai doguwar hanya daga can ga AfD don ɗaukar Berlin.
Alama ɗaya mai bege ita ce ƙungiyoyin jama'a sun fara motsawa yanzu da mamakin farko ya wuce. Muna iya tsammanin manyan zanga-zanga a manyan biranen. Yawancin masu adawa da fashist masu natsuwa sun fara shirya kansu. Amma zai yi wuya a karya sihirin duhun da wannan nasara a cikin jihar da ke cikin damuwa ta jefa a fagen siyasar Jamus.
Abu ɗaya tabbatacce: makonni masu zuwa za su gwada tunanin siyasa, ba kawai ga Jamusawa ba.
Jörg Lau ɗan jarida ne na ƙasashen waje na mujallar Jamus Die Zeit.
Kuna da ra'ayi game da batutuwan da aka tattauna a wannan labarin? Idan kuna son ƙaddamar da amsa har zuwa kalmomi 300 ta imel don yiwuwar bugawa a sashin wasiƙunmu, da fatan za ku danna nan.
Tambayoyin da Aka Yi Yawa
Anan akwai jerin tambayoyin da aka yi yawa bisa ga tushen labarin da aka rubuta cikin yanayi na halitta kuma bayyananne
Tambayoyin da Aka Yi Yawa Nasarar AfD da Matsalar Friedrich Merz
1 Dakata menene ke faruwa da Friedrich Merz Shin yana cikin matsala
E yana cikin matsala Shi ne shugaban jam'iyyar CDU mai ra'ayin mazan jiya kuma yana fuskantar matsin lamba sosai Kwanan nan ya tura wani ƙudurin ƙaura ta majalisa tare da taimakon jam'iyyar AfD mai ra'ayin mazan jiya wanda ya karya wani dogon al'adar siyasa a Jamus Wannan ya haifar da babban rashin jituwa a cikin jam'iyyar kuma mutane da yawa sun yi imanin cewa jagorancinsa da hanyarsa ta zama Shugaban Gwamnati suna cikin haɗari sosai
2 Me yasa kowa ya damu da yin aiki tare da AfD
A Jamus duk manyan jam'iyyun siyasa na da ƙaƙƙarfan katanga na hana yin aiki tare da AfD wadda ake ganin tana da tsattsauran ra'ayi Ta hanyar dogaro da ƙuri'unsu don zartar da wata doka Merz ya karya wannan katanga Mutane da yawa masu jefa ƙuri'a da 'yan siyasa suna ganin wannan a matsayin cin amanar ƙa'idodin dimokuradiyya, yana sa shi zama marar amana kuma yana lalata sunan CDU
3 Labarin ya ce nasarar AfD tana da girgizar ƙasa Wace nasara muke magana a kai
Labarin yana magana ne game da babbar nasarar siyasa ga AfD Ta hanyar tilasta CDU ta dogara da su don zartar da doka, AfD ta tabbatar da cewa za ta iya yin tasiri a manufofin ƙasa daga matsayin 'yan adawa Ba jam'iyyar zanga-zanga ba ce kawai a yanzu; sun zama masu yin sarauta waɗanda suka karya haɗin kan manyan jam'iyyu a kansu
4 Idan Merz yana cikin matsala me yasa wannan ba shine ainihin dalilin da ya sa wannan yake da muhimmanci ba
Matsalolin siyasa na Merz na kansa alama ce ba dalili ba ne Babban abin da ke da girgizar ƙasa shi ne an karya katangar siyasa Yana nuna cewa AfD yanzu ƙarfi ce ta dindindin kuma mai ƙarfi a siyasar Jamus kuma jam'iyyun gargajiya suna shirye su watsar da ƙa'idodinsu na asali don cimma manufofinsu Wannan yana canza yanayin siyasa gaba ɗaya na shekaru masu zuwa
5 Shin wani zai iya bayyana katangar a cikin kalmomi masu sauƙi
Ka yi tunanin wata babbar ƙa'ida da ba a rubuta ba Duk manyan jam'iyyun siyasa na dimokuradiyya a Jamus sun yarda ba za su taɓa kafa haɗin gwiwa ko yin yarjejeniya da AfD ba saboda ra'ayinsu na tsattsauran kishin ƙasa da ƙiyayyar baƙi Wannan ƙa'ida tana nufin ware masu ra'ayin mazan jiya da kuma hana su iko
