Shawarar barin EU ta ƙara goyon baya ga 'yancin kai na Scotland, wanda shekaru goma bayan kuri'ar raba gardama ta Brexit yanzu ya kai matsayi kusa da mafi girma, a cewar tsohon shugaban Labour na Scotland Kezia Dugdale.
Dugdale ta ce kuri'ar Brexit "ta haifar da tsari game da adalci" ga mutane da yawa a Scotland saboda, ba kamar Ingila ba, masu jefa kuri'a na Scotland sun fi son ci gaba da zama a cikin EU a 2016—da kashi 62% zuwa 38%—duk da haka har yanzu sun ga an fitar da ƙasarsu daga Turai.
Ta kuma yi imanin cewa matakin gwamnatin Burtaniya na "hard Brexit" ya rinjayi 'yan Scotland da yawa waɗanda ba su yanke shawara game da 'yancin kai na Scotland ba lokacin da aka gudanar da kuri'ar raba gardama kan batun a 2014.
Goyon bayan 'yancin kai a halin yanzu yana kusan kashi 50%, yana kaiwa kashi 55% a wasu kuri'un jin ra'ayi.
Dugdale ta tuna jin "cikakkiyar ɓacin rai" lokacin da aka tabbatar da sakamakon barin EU da sanyin safiyar ranar 24 ga Yuni 2016. Wannan safiya, ta yi magana a asirce da Firayim Minista na lokacin Nicola Sturgeon, tana gaya mata: "Wannan yana canza komai."
Ta ce 'yan Scotland da yawa sun ji cewa "sun fuskanci zaɓi na gaggawa na Scotland mai cin gashin kanta a Turai ko kuma Burtaniya ta Boris Johnson mai barin EU," kuma wannan jin na cin amana ya canza yanayin siyasar Scotland.
"Ina tsammanin ya ci gaba da goyon bayan 'yancin kai, wanda in ba haka ba zai koma baya," in ji ta.
Ruth Davidson, wacce ita ce shugabar masu ra'ayin mazan jiya ta Scotland a 2016 kuma ta goyi bayan yakin neman zama a EU, ta yi mamakin sakamakon barin EU.
Ta tuna yin magana a wannan rana da Sturgeon, wacce ta yi ƙoƙarin shawo kanta ta "ci gaba tare" tare da Dugdale don goyon bayan kuri'ar raba gardama ta biyu. "Zan iya tuna tunanin 'a'a, a'a, a'a,'" in ji Davidson. "Kuri'ar zama a EU bai kamata a yi amfani da ita don wani abu da ba a yi ba."
A cikin littafinta na tarihin rayuwa Frankly, Sturgeon ta ce: "Na ji damuwa da fushi game da yiwuwar Brexit da abin da ya ce game da rashin ikon Scotland a cikin Burtaniya. Ina da tunani mai ƙarfi na 'Idan ba yanzu ba, yaushe?'"
Akwai hasashe cewa bayan Brexit, goyon bayan 'yancin kai na Scotland zai iya wuce kashi 60%, amma guguwar da mutane da yawa ke tsammani ba ta zo ba.
A maimakon haka, a cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata, mahimmancin batun ya ragu yayin da rikice-rikicen siyasa da suka biyo bayan hard Brexit na Boris Johnson, cutar Covid, yakin Ukraine, da kuma mulkin Donald Trump na rikice-rikice suka haifar da rashin tsaro mai zurfi game da tattalin arziki da ayyukan jama'a.
Davidson, mai tsananin son hadin kan Burtaniya, ta ce har yanzu tana jin "ƙiyayya" ga Johnson, wanda ta yi imanin ya kasa nuna jagoranci na gaskiya kuma bai taɓa bayyana hangen nesa mai haske ga Burtaniya mai hadin kai bayan Brexit ba. Amma "tasirin Boris" kan goyon bayan 'yancin kai ya yi ƙasa da yadda ta yi tsammani.
"Akwai matsayi na damuwa" ga masu jefa kuri'a, in ji ta. "Ko muna goyon bayan 'yancin kai ko kuma zama a Burtaniya ya fi damuwa fiye da dangantakar Burtaniya da EU."
Gaskiyar zaɓe na wannan rikici za a iya gani tun daga 2017.
Ƙoƙarin Sturgeon na yin amfani da fushin masu son zama a EU don gina hujja mai ƙarfi don kuri'ar raba gardama ta biyu bai yi nasara ba. Gwamnatin Theresa May ta masu ra'ayin mazan jiya ta yi tsayayya da buƙatunta. Goyon bayan 'yancin kai ya ragu a cikin 2017 zuwa ƙasa da kashi 40%.
A zaɓen gama-gari na 2017, SNP ta rasa kujeru 21 na Westminster kuma kason kuri'arta ya ragu da maki 13 yayin da masu jefa kuri'a suka hukunta Sturgeon saboda neman kuri'ar raba gardama ta biyu. Jam'iyyun da ke goyon bayan Burtaniya, waɗanda a baya suka riƙe kujera ɗaya kawai, sun sami farfaɗo.
Tories na Davidson sun ci kujeru 13; Labour na Dugdale sun ci bakwai, kuma Lib Dems hudu. A cikin zaɓen Burtaniya biyar da na Holyrood tun daga lokacin, SNP ba ta taɓa samun kashi 50% na kuri'un ba, wanda ya raunana ikirarinta na samun izini don kuri'ar raba gardama ta biyu.
A cikin 2019, yayin da Boris Johnson ya karbi mulki daga Theresa May a matsayin Firayim Minista kuma ya ci gaba da hard Brexit—bayan da ya yi rashin kulawa da rikicin Covid a 2020—ra'ayi game da 'yancin kai na Scotland ya fara canzawa.
Nicola Sturgeon, wacce aka nana tana yakin neman zaɓe a Glasgow a 2015, ta yi ƙoƙarin yin amfani da fushin masu jefa kuri'a na zama a EU don tura neman kuri'ar raba gardama ta biyu. Hoton: Murdo MacLeod/The Guardian
Yayin da Sturgeon ta zama mai ƙarfi da kwanciyar hankali idan aka kwatanta da jagorancin Johnson na rikice-rikice, goyon bayan barin Scotland Burtaniya ya tashi sosai, ya kai kashi 59% zuwa Oktoba 2020.
Yanzu, koma bayan tattalin arziki da damuwa game da NHS sune manyan batutuwa a siyasar Scotland. Dugdale ta danganta yawancin wannan ga Brexit da tasirinsa ga tattalin arzikin Burtaniya.
Dangane da kiyasin baya-bayan nan daga Cibiyar Nazarin Tattalin Arziki da Zamantakewa ta Ƙasa, ministan Turai na Scotland, Stephen Gethins, ya gaya wa Majalisar Scotland a ranar 18 ga Yuni cewa Brexit ya kashe Scotland fam biliyan 3.3 a cikin asarar kudaden shiga a bara kuma ya ƙara fam 250 ga kudaden abinci.
Farfesa Mairi Spowage, darektan Cibiyar Fraser of Allander, babbar cibiyar tunani ta tattalin arziki ta Scotland, ta ce yayin da Brexit ya cutar da fitar da tattalin arziki, fitar da kayayyaki zuwa EU, da kudaden jama'a, ba a iya raba ainihin tasirinsa daga sauran rikice-rikice da gazawar manufofi.
Ta lura cewa koma bayan tattalin arzikin Burtaniya na iya kasancewa da alaƙa da rashin saka hannun jari na dogon lokaci daga kamfanoni da gwamnati tun bayan rikicin banki na 2008. Tun daga lokacin, Covid, yakin Ukraine, gwamnatin Liz Truss, manufofin kasuwanci na Amurka, da rikice-rikice a Gabas ta Tsakiya suma sun yi tasiri.
Hijira zuwa Burtaniya kuma ya zama mai rikitarwa: "guguwar Boris" na hijira bayan Brexit ta rama raguwar ma'aikatan EU—wani bangare saboda ƙasashe membobin EU, waɗanda a da suke tushen ma'aikatan hijira, sun zama masu wadata.
Duk da ƙoƙarin John Swinney, Firayim Minista kuma shugaban SNP, na sanya 'yancin kai na Scotland da sake shiga EU a matsayin muhimmin abu a zaɓen Holyrood na baya-bayan nan, wannan dabarar ba ta ba shi rinjaye gabaɗaya da yake so ba.
SNP ta sami kashi 38% na kuri'un, mafi ƙanƙanta tun 2007, kuma ta ci mafi yawan kujeru ne kawai saboda 'yan adawa sun rabu. Jam'iyyar Reform UK mai adawa da EU ta taimaka wajen haifar da wannan rarrabuwa, inda ta ci kujeru 17 kuma yanzu tana raba taken jam'iyya ta biyu mafi girma a Holyrood; wasu daga cikin masu jefa kuri'arta sun kasance masu shakkar EU waɗanda a da suke goyon bayan SNP.
Dugdale, yanzu mataimakiyar darekta na Cibiyar Manufofin Jama'a a Jami'ar Glasgow, ba ta zama memba na jam'iyyar Labour ba kuma ta zabi SNP a zaɓen majalisar Turai na ƙarshe a 2019 don nuna adawa da Brexit.
Yawancin masu jefa kuri'a yanzu suna motsa su da fushi da rashin jin daɗi, wani bangare saboda sun yi imanin cewa Brexit bai cika alkawuransa ba. "Mun yi fiye da shekaru 15 na tsuke bakin aljihu da shekaru 15 na raguwar amincewa da cibiyoyin siyasa," in ji Dugdale. "Idan muka ci gaba da haka har tsawon lokaci, mutane ba za su ƙara amincewa da tsarin don inganta rayuwarsu ba."
Tambayoyin da Aka Yi Yawa
Anan akwai jerin tambayoyin da ake yi yawa game da yadda Brexit ya canza yanayin siyasar Scotland da aka rubuta cikin yanayi na halitta tare da amsoshi masu sauƙi
Tambayoyin Matakin Farko
Tambaya: Menene "Wannan yana canza komai" ke nufi a mahallin Scotland da Brexit
Amsa: Kalma ce da ake yawan amfani da ita don bayyana yadda Brexit ya canza muhawarar siyasa a Scotland gaba ɗaya. Kafin Brexit, 'yancin kai na Scotland babban batu ne, amma bayan da Burtaniya ta zabi barin EU, tambayar 'yancin kai ta haɗu da Turai kuma goyon bayan 'yancin kai ya karu sosai.
Tambaya: Shin Scotland ta zabi barin EU
Amsa: A'a. A kuri'ar raba gardama ta Brexit na 2016, kashi 62% na masu jefa kuri'a a Scotland sun zabi ci gaba da zama a EU. Kashi 38% kawai suka zabi barin. Wannan ya haifar da babban rikici tsakanin zaɓin Scotland da sakamakon Burtaniya gaba ɗaya.
Tambaya: Ta yaya Brexit ya sa 'yancin kai na Scotland ya zama mafi shahara
Amsa: Mutane da yawa a Scotland sun ji cewa an fitar da su daga EU ba tare da yardarsu ba. Wannan ya ƙarfafa hujjar cewa muryar Scotland ba ta da muhimmanci a Burtaniya kuma hanya ɗaya tilo don kare muradun Scotland ita ce zama ƙasa mai cin gashin kanta.
Tambaya: Menene "rashi dimokuradiyya" da mutane ke magana akai
Amsa: Yana nufin cewa Scotland ta zabi hanya ɗaya amma gwamnatin Burtaniya ta kai Scotland zuwa wata hanya dabam. Wannan ya sa mutane da yawa suka ji cewa tsarin Burtaniya ba shi da dimokuradiyya ga Scotland.
Tambaya: Shin Brexit ya canza doka a Scotland
Amsa: Ee. Dokoki da yawa da EU ta yi an dawo da su zuwa Burtaniya. Wasu daga cikin waɗannan yankuna an ba da su ga Majalisar Scotland, wanda ya haifar da jayayya game da wanda zai yi sababbin dokoki.
Tambayoyin Matsakaicin Mataki
Tambaya: Ta yaya Brexit ya shafi dangantaka tsakanin Gwamnatin Scotland da Gwamnatin Burtaniya
Amsa: Ya sa dangantakar ta zama mafi tsanani. Gwamnatin Scotland ta yi jayayya cewa Brexit yana buƙatar yardar Scotland, wanda ba a ba shi ba. Gwamnatin Burtaniya ta ci gaba duk da haka, wanda ya haifar da fadace-fadace na shari'a game da abubuwa kamar Dokar Kasuwar Cikin Gida.
Tambaya: Shin Brexit ya haifar da sababbin dokoki ko iko ga Majalisar Scotland
