One hundred and twenty miles from Westminster, I found myself in what felt like the perfect place to grasp the significance of Angela Rayner’s resignation from government: Reform UK’s short conference. It was a surreal, almost giddy gathering of around 10,000 people in a vast, hangar-like venue on the outskirts of Birmingham.
News of her resignation broke a couple of hours into the first day, and the symbolism was impossible to ignore. Amid midday pints, onstage pyrotechnics, and a large stand promoting gold investments, a party led by the brash public school figures Nigel Farage and Richard Tice was suddenly celebrating the departure of British politics’ most prominent working-class woman. The news only heightened the atmosphere of energy and optimism, mixed with a sense of delighted surprise at what could be the defining political reality of the UK. We all know the facts: Reform UK has only a handful of MPs, no substantial policy platform, and a worldview that often drifts into conspiracy, yet it is on track to either form or heavily influence the next government.
There are many reasons for this, most of which reflect poorly on Keir Starmer and his allies. However toxic its messages may be, Reform offers vivid, simple narratives about immigration, diversity, and the perceived failures of the two main parties. Its leaders instinctively understand that politics has become raw and primary-coloured. They even turn their inexperience into an advantage, arguing that only untested outsiders can break the UK’s cycle of inertia and failure.
Whether we like it or not, Farage also embodies how celebrity culture has transformed politics—a shift accelerated by social media. Jargon-heavy, technocratic politics no longer fits our modern means of communication or a world gripped by constant noise and chaos. Success now demands a more performative, authentic—or in his case, faux-authentic—style of leadership, along with the ability to cut through the clamour and make yourself heard.
With all this in mind, consider the Starmer government and where recent events leave it. Rayner was no political genius, but before being overwhelmed by stories about stamp duty and seaside flats, she was likely the only senior Labour figure who brought a visibly human touch to government and could speak movingly about life on the margins. Her policy priorities—especially her strong advocacy for social housing—focused precisely on the voters Farage appeals to most. She also provided at least some balance to the influence of Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, who has used her resignation to push through a reshuffle and seemingly encouraged Starmer to double down on the bland, technocratic approach that has defined this government from the start.
At cabinet level, there’s been a flurry of job changes but no sign of any real rethinking. We’ll see what unfolds at Labour’s conference, but the prime minister and his team still seem to reject compelling narratives in favour of the hollow idea that governing is just about “delivery”—a model showing little sign of actually delivering. For a quick sense of how uninspiring this is, look back at the video Starmer released just before the Rayner crisis: 35 tedious seconds of him talking about gathering “all the No. 10 staff together” and “marching forward to the next phase of government.” It feels all too familiar—like a man standing near a burning house, promising new shelves and a couple of nice rugs.
Meanwhile, some of the biggest questions about…But what he and his colleagues are doing centers on the government’s approach to what Farage considers his strongest ground. The new home secretary is Birmingham MP Shabana Mahmood, who is expected to intensify the government’s cold, punitive rhetoric on asylum, immigration, and so-called small boats. Clearly, the government needs to address the chaos in the asylum system, and it should occasionally speak—carefully—about the challenges of integration. But as shown by Starmer’s “island of strangers” speech, it is repeatedly stumbling into much more dangerous political territory.
For further evidence, look back just two weeks to Farage’s speech advocating mass deportations, paying the Taliban to take back people from Afghanistan, and again suggesting the UK is on the verge of social collapse. Starmer’s spokesperson declined to criticize any of it. In other words, Labour does not want to challenge his most fundamental ideas or point out how dangerous they are; in fact, its instinct is to silently validate them. The result: Reform UK is riding high not just because of Farage’s shamelessness and skill. Astonishingly, Labour is actively helping.
Rayner’s departure is a bombshell, but the real crisis for Starmer may have only just begun.
This brings us to the alarming urgency of the moment. If Reform UK succeeds in taking power, what would happen to state education, our justice system, crime and punishment policies, or the BBC? What would everyday life be like amid Farage’s promised mass deportations? If you woke up a couple of weeks ago to find your neighborhood suddenly covered in flags (note the weak response from then-home secretary Yvette Cooper: “Oh, put ’em up anywhere. I would put them up anywhere”), imagine the kind of people who revel in that sectarian territory-marking running the country. Then watch Starmer in action and ask yourself: does he understand what’s at stake?
Of course, none of this is simple: shouting “be bold” while ignoring the gravity of the government’s situation would be as crude as many of its own statements. But deep uncertainties persist, and Rayner’s exit makes them even more urgent. In this new political era, does the prime minister understand what leadership truly requires? And even if he does, can he actually deliver it?
These concerns can be framed another way, cutting straight to the icy political winds I felt swirling around Birmingham. The idea that we are facing one of the most critical moments in our peacetime history might sound dramatic, but it must be faced. So too must the question that will soon become unavoidable: does Starmer’s leadership help or hinder the advance of the darkest forces ever to come so close to taking control?
John Harris is a Guardian columnist.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs based on the provided article headline designed to be clear concise and in a natural tone
General Beginner Questions
Q Who is Angela Rayner and why is her departure a big deal
A Angela Rayner is the Deputy Leader of the UKs Labour Party Her departure is a major event because she is a key figure and popular with the partys base so it suggests serious internal conflict
Q What does Reform is on track to take power mean
A It means the article argues that the Reform UK party which is further to the right is gaining enough popularity that it could potentially win a future election or become a major political force
Q Who is John Harris Should I trust his opinion
A John Harris is a wellknown journalist and political commentator for The Guardian His articles are opinion pieces so they represent his analysis and perspective not just straight news
Q What is the main argument of this article
A The main argument is that the Labour Party is in crisis following Angela Rayners exit and if its leader Keir Starmer doesnt effectively address this and reconnect with voters it will create an opening for the Reform UK party to succeed
Intermediate Advanced Questions
Q What are the likely reasons behind Angela Rayners reported departure
A While the articles headline states it as fact reasons are likely internal party disagreements over strategy policy direction or a loss of confidence in Keir Starmers leadership
Q How does internal Labour conflict benefit Reform UK
A When a major party like Labour appears divided and weak voters who are dissatisfied may look for an alternative Reform UK positions itself as that alternative for voters on the right and those frustrated with the current political establishment
Q What does Starmer rises to the occasion mean in practical terms
A It means Keir Starmer needs to quickly unite his party present a clear and compelling vision to the public and effectively counter the arguments and appeal of Reform UK to win back confidence
Q Is this article predicting a sure victory for Reform or is it a warning
A It is primarily a warning The phrasing on track suggests a current trajectory that could lead to Reform gaining power
