Israel’s election appeared to have produced no clear winner on Tuesday night, after historic turnout in a vote described by some as the most consequential in the country’s history and marked by record participation from Israeli Arab voters.
Exit polls published on Tuesday evening suggested that the opposition bloc led by former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot would win the most Knesset seats by a narrow margin, edging out Benjamin Netanyahu’s right and far-right coalition even though the prime minister’s Likud emerged as the largest party. The result is likely to trigger weeks of maneuvering over who can form a coalition government before a prime minister is declared or another election is called, but it represents a sharp electoral rebuke to Netanyahu.
After a day in which Israelis streamed to polling stations across the country, exit polls suggested that Netanyahu’s ability to command the loyalty of a large core of Likud voters remained undimmed, despite his rejection by large numbers of Israelis.
The predicted haul of up to 18 Knesset seats for Israeli Arab parties is likely to make them kingmakers in what seem certain to be protracted talks to form a new government, with Netanyahu likely to fall short of the support needed to form a new coalition. While Eisenkot could theoretically assemble a majority by forming a government with the Arab parties, he ruled that out before the election.
The exit polls – if accurate – suggest a struggle for either Likud or Eisenkot’s Yashar to find a path to a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Likud’s projected showing, not for the first time, appears to have defied predictions in the run-up to the vote.
However, the stalemate could yet work in Netanyahu’s favor, allowing the prime minister to remain in power in a caretaker capacity. What is clear, however, is that Netanyahu no longer has a claim to a mandate, with his political fate hanging in the balance.
Opposition figures were quick to cast the exit polls as a defeat for Netanyahu, with former prime minister Yair Lapid saying: “Netanyahu’s bloc has suffered a crushing defeat. This is a total collapse. The public has told them to get out.”
For his part, Eisenkot called the exit polls a vote of “no confidence in Netanyahu. If these are the final results, it’s a complete victory for Israel’s mainstream majority. I’ll work immediately to enact the will of the nation, to change Netanyahu’s government … as soon as possible.”
The exit polls were released after a last-ditch effort by Netanyahu and several other parties to keep polling stations open beyond their 10pm deadline was rejected by the Central Elections Committee. The prime minister had suggested publicly that the “left and Arabs” were trying to steal the election, a claim rejected by the committee, which said it had seen no evidence of systematic tampering.
Entangled in a long-running corruption trial, Netanyahu and his far-right coalition had stoked xenophobic fears and suggested Israel would be vulnerable to a nuclear attack without him.
Tuesday’s election, which drew the highest turnout in 50 years, had been framed as a referendum on nearly 17 years of unbroken rule by Benjamin Netanyahu, who has most recently overseen three years of unprecedented conflict, instability and growing international isolation.
With more than 7 million people eligible to vote, turnout by 6pm was 77.1% – a rise of about 9% on the previous election – with marked increases in the number of serving military members voting. There were also reports of tens of thousands of Israelis living abroad who had arrived to vote in recent days, with many still arriving at Ben Gurion airport to cast their ballots on Tuesday.
Voting was heavy in a number of major cities, including Tel Aviv and Haifa, which some aAnalysts had suggested this would benefit the opposition, with long queues to vote in some locations. The same pattern was repeated in Israeli-Arab towns, many of which have a long history of boycotting elections.
Israeli-Arab voters arrive to cast their ballots at a polling station in Nazareth. Photograph: Adri Salido/Anadolu/Getty Images
As polls opened on Tuesday, Netanyahu and his far-right coalition allies launched what critics condemned as a scare campaign to encourage their supporters to turn out, using the familiar racist tactic of warning that large numbers of Israeli Arabs would be voting. Netanyahu made a similar claim to rally support in 2015.
In a recorded message to voters, Netanyahu suggested Arabs and the left were trying to steal the election, and Likud claimed suspected irregularities at hundreds of polling stations used by Israeli Arabs.
Israeli citizens of Palestinian origin make up about 20% of the country’s population.
That prompted Netanyahu’s main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, to say Netanyahu was laying the groundwork to challenge the result.
A Likud election poster at a polling station in Jerusalem. Photograph: Jewel Samad/AFP/Getty Images
“Netanyahu has returned to his familiar tricks — lies and fearmongering to mobilise voters,” he said. “The same lies we saw in previous election campaigns.”
Since the deadly attack launched by Hamas on Israel’s southern communities on 7 October 2023 — an event that many blamed on Netanyahu’s failings — Israel has devastated Gaza with the loss of more than 74,000 Palestinian lives, fought Hezbollah in Lebanon, occupied new territory in Syria and launched a war with the US against Iran.
Netanyahu and his far-right coalition partners have also drawn international condemnation for Israel’s actions in the occupied West Bank, where violent Jewish settlers have been accused of pogroms against Palestinians and ethnic cleansing.
A Palestinian family walk past campaign posters for Israel’s far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, in Beit Kahil in the West Bank. Photograph: Ilia Yefimovich/AFP/Getty Images
Despite the many issues facing the country, much of the campaign’s focus has been on the contrasting characters of the two main party leaders — the machiavellian, grandstanding Netanyahu, who is on trial for corruption, against Eisenkot, the unpolished former IDF chief of staff who rose from humble origins.
The campaign, unusually febrile even by Israeli standards, included a struggling Netanyahu posting a picture of a nuclear explosion devastating Tel Aviv on the eve of the polls opening.
On Tuesday, encouraging ultra-orthodox voters, Netanyahu — who has long conflated his personal and political survival with that of Israel — returned to his apocalyptic language. “The Jewish state is on the brink of ruin,” he said.
In the midst of a major corruption trial that has been moving at a glacial pace through the courts, Netanyahu has appeared rattled by the challenge mounted against him by an array of centre-right parties whose unifying pitch has been “anyone but Netanyahu”.
“This is a very moving and fateful moment,” he told journalists after voting, saying he believed the Arab parties that could make or break the election were “receiving massive, truly massive support … heading to the polls in unprecedented numbers”.
Despite tonight’s results, the complexity of Israel’s fragmented political system — with many parties jostling and horse-trading — means it will probably be some time before the shape of any future government, and who will lead it, is clear.
All of which has amplified the importance of Israeli Arab parties, which could emerge as potential kingmakers.
“Our vote will change the government,” the head of the Islamist Ra’am party, Mansour Abbas, said while voting, adding that he hoped turnout would surpass 70% in Arab communities.
Israel’s far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, known for taunting Palestinian detainees anHe said some Palestinians in Gaza are “not even people” and warned that “it will be Mansour Abbas’s government” if Netanyahu and his allies lose. Underlining the sense of a country at a defining crossroads, an editorial in the left-leaning Haaretz newspaper urged Israelis to vote, which they did in huge numbers. “Israel cannot afford another four years under Netanyahu,” it said. “It has exhausted its reserves. The erosion of its diplomatic credit has reached dangerous proportions, and its tired citizens are at the very limits of what they can bear.”
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs about the Israeli election being too close to call with exit polls showing Netanyahus bloc winning slightly fewer seats
1 What does it mean that the election is too close to call
It means the results are so evenly balanced that no winner can be declared yet Exit polls suggest the races are tight and the final count could still change the outcome
2 What are exit polls
Exit polls are surveys of voters taken right after they leave polling stations They give an early idea of how people voted but they are estimates not official results
3 What do the exit polls show about Netanyahus bloc
They show Netanyahus bloc winning slightly fewer seats than his opponents But the gap is small enough that the final results could flip either way
4 Who is Benjamin Netanyahu
He is Israels longestserving prime minister and leader of the Likud party He has been a dominant figure in Israeli politics for decades
5 What is a bloc in Israeli politics
A bloc is a group of parties that tend to work together to form a government Israels system usually requires several parties to join forces to reach a majority
6 Why does Israels election result take time to confirm
Votes are counted in stages including absentee and military ballots Coalition talks also take time so the final picture of who will govern can take days or weeks
7 How many seats does a party need to form a government
A majority in the 120seat Knesset means at least 61 seats Because no single party usually gets that many coalitions are needed
8 Why are the exit polls not the final result
Exit polls rely on samples of voters and can have a margin of error Official counts of every ballot are what legally decide the outcome
9 What happens if the results are very close
Parties begin coalition negotiations and small parties can become kingmakers In some cases recounts or legal challenges may also play a role
10 Could Netanyahu still become prime minister even with fewer seats
Yes Seat totals alone dont decide who governs What matters is whether a candidate can assemble a coalition of at least 61 seats
11 What is a coalition government
It is a government formed by multiple parties agreeing to share power Each party
