Europeans strongly desire a strong, united, and independent Europe, but they doubt it can actually happen, according to a study. This suggests a widespread crisis of confidence across the continent, which is creating fertile ground for far-right narratives about decline.
The report is based on 5,800 interviews in France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and the UK, as well as analysis of how Europe is discussed in the politics and media of 15 countries. It paints a picture of a public that is ambitious but disillusioned.
The study found that 68% of respondents talked about Europe in terms of a “general deterioration or loss of normality,” while only 12% said they saw the current moment as a time of “European awakening and renewal.”
Many people recognized the major challenges facing Europe, including war (43%), economic pressures (33%), and the need for greater international independence (29%). But 74% said Europe was not handling these challenges well, and 56% believed its future was “in danger.”
The problem is not a lack of ambition: an overwhelming 73% of respondents hold a strong European vision of unity and political integration (35%), peace and security (28%), or prosperity (19%), while only 13% hope for “less Europe” or the EU’s dissolution.
According to the study’s author, Paweล Zerka, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank, for many people the problem is “not that they’ve stopped wanting a stronger Europe, but that they no longer believe it’s achievable.”
Zerka added that the result is an “imagination gap. People can picture the kind of Europe they want, but they struggle to imagine a credible path from where it is today to where they want it to be. These are matters of policy, not just communication.”
A week before the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, is due to deliver her annual “state of the union” address in Brussels, Zerka said the evidence suggested the bloc needed “fewer grand promises” and more “proof of trajectory.”
The study cites dozens of conversations with Europeans. “I’m regularly relieved I live in Europe. It’s not perfect and some things are going in the wrong direction, but no region in the world is safer, freer, and more democratic,” one German said.
However, while he identified the climate crisis and far-right parties as the continent’s greatest challenges, he said they were not being tackled effectively. “Elections focus too much on the here and now, and not enough on the future,” he said.
The respondent said he would like Europe in 20 years’ time to be “free, democratic, sustainable, less indebted, politically further to the left [and] peaceful.” Asked whether he thought that was likely to happen, he said: “No.”
The study classifies Europe’s voters into four categories. The Positives (19%) are staunch pro-Europeans who view current crises as a catalyst for a stronger, more integrated union. The Negatives (39%) believe Europe’s best days are behind it.
Almost half of people in France, Germany, and Italy โ and almost all who voted for radical-right parties such as Germany’s AfD, France’s RN, the Dutch PVV, and Reform UK โ were Negatives, with 83% speaking of Europe in terms of loss and decline.
The Disconnected (12%) are generally apathetic voters for whom EU integration is distant background noise, and the Uncertain (31%) share pro-European values but doubt the continent’s ability to act decisively, keep citizens safe, or uphold its values.
Almost a third (32%) of respondents across all countries surveyed mentioned “Europe’s slowness” in their responses. As one young Polish citizen, born in the 2000s, put it bluntly: “The EU fundamentally discusses a lot, but does nothing.”
The bloc’s failures…Its inability to hold its ground when faced with powerful opponents was also a recurring issue, mentioned by nearly a third (30%) of all respondents. The EU’s recent tariff concessions to Donald Trump were seen as a particularly humiliating example.
Zerka noted that the Uncertain group is crucial for Europe’s future direction. “Leaders tend to preach to the Positives or bow down to the Negatives,” he said, but it is “among the ‘uncertain’ where belief in Europe’s future remains up for grabs.”
Unlike hardened Eurosceptics, Uncertain voters still feel a strong emotional connection to the European project, the report argues. However, they are put off by institutional inertia, bureaucratic delays, and a perceived lack of geopolitical strength.
To win back these doubters, Zerka said, politicians would need to show that collective European action can address real domestic problems, from energy security and defense to climate change and the cost of living crisis.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on the studys findings written in a natural tone
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What exactly does a united Europe mean
It generally refers to the European Union and the idea of member countries working together on things like trade laws and foreign policy almost like a single bloc For some it means a United States of Europe with a shared government but for most it just means deeper cooperation
2 So do Europeans actually like the idea of being united
Yes according to the study there is strong emotional and philosophical support for the idea Most Europeans believe that unity is a good thing in principle and that it promotes peace and prosperity
3 If they like it why are they unsure it can happen
The study found a big gap between dream and reality People worry that the practical differences between countrieslike language culture and economic strengthare just too big to overcome They also see how hard it is to get 27 different governments to agree on anything
4 What is the biggest reason for this doubt
The main reason is a lack of trust People trust their national governments more than they trust the EU institutions in Brussels They feel distant from the decisionmaking process and dont believe the EU can act quickly or effectively in a crisis
5 Does this mean people want to leave the EU
No not necessarily The study suggests that people want to stay in the EU and want it to work better They support the goal of unity but they are skeptical about the method and the feasibility of deeper political integration
AdvancedLevel Questions
6 What is the permissive consensus and how does this study challenge it
Permissive consensus is the old idea that citizens passively accept whatever the political elites decide about Europe This study challenges that It shows that citizens are now actively engaged but their support is conditional They are no longer just saying yes to integration they are saying yes but only if it proves it can work
7 Does the study differentiate between support for economic unity versus political unity
Yes thats a key finding Europeans are very supportive of economic unity because they see
