It might be hard for a real estate mogul like Donald Trump to grasp, but Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine isn’t really about seizing war-torn territory in the east. It’s about Ukraine’s democracy. Putin is afraid that Russians will see democracy as an appealing alternative to his stifling autocracy. For Trump to have any chance of brokering peace, he must acknowledge this reality and shift the calculations that keep Putin’s war going.
Much of the commentary on Trump’s summit with Putin in Alaska, and on European leaders gathering in Washington to shield Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from Trump’s unpredictability, has focused on misleading issues. For instance, Putin didn’t invade Ukraine because he feared NATO expansion. Unanimous agreement from all NATO members would be needed to admit Ukraine—something that’s nowhere in sight, especially since Article 5 would require every NATO country to defend Ukraine against Russian aggression.
Ironically, Putin’s invasion has actually strengthened NATO. It pushed Sweden and Finland to join the alliance, led members to pledge major increases in defense spending—up to 5% of GDP—and made some more willing to station troops in Ukraine as part of a “reassurance force” to support a potential peace deal.
Nor did Putin invade to free Ukrainians from Zelenskyy, whom he dismisses as illegitimate and even a “neo-Nazi.” That claim is ironic, since Zelenskyy was elected freely and fairly, while Putin only staged a sham election and imprisoned—and ultimately killed—his most charismatic rival, Alexei Navalny.
The war also isn’t about Putin’s nostalgia for the Soviet Union, which he called “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” If that were the motive, it would threaten all 14 other former Soviet states, including the three NATO members: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
Instead, Putin invaded to crush Ukrainian democracy. Unlike established European democracies, Ukraine resembles Russia enough that Putin worries Russians might see its accountable, elected government as a model for their own future. Both countries are Slavic and Orthodox, and Ukraine—the second-largest post-Soviet state by population—is too significant to ignore.
Putin has long wanted Ukraine as a vassal state. The 2013–14 Euromaidan protests, which ousted pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych after he halted talks on closer EU ties, prompted Putin to seize Crimea and parts of the Donbas.
Today, Putin’s most controversial demands would make it easier for Kyiv to fall under Moscow’s influence again. His insistence that Ukraine hand over large parts of Donetsk—the kind of “land swap” Trump has casually suggested—would surrender far more territory than Russia has managed to capture since late 2022, at great cost in Russian lives, and displace hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians.
It would also force Ukrainian troops to abandon key defensive lines—their “fortress belt”—clearing the way for Russia to seize even more land. Comparisons to Neville Chamberlain’s 1938 appeasement of Hitler, which sacrificed Czechoslovakia’s Sudetenland as a prelude to war, would be inevitable. If Ukraine disarms, as Putin demands, further Russian aggression would become even simpler.
That’s why security guarantees are so crucial for Ukraine. Given Putin’s history of breaking agreements, Kyiv rightly wants assurance that Russia won’t use a ceasefire to rebuild its forces and attack again. The best guarantee would be a European peacekeeping force on the ground, but…European governments naturally want US support to deter Russian aggression. Trump’s openness to providing air support for a European force is a positive step. Meanwhile, Russia’s demand for veto power over any security guarantees raises serious doubts about Putin’s intentions.
For now, Putin appears to believe that prolonging the war serves his interests. To avoid provoking Trump, he hasn’t outright rejected talks with Zelenskyy but is stalling by insisting on lengthy preliminary steps. Since Putin’s assault on Ukraine’s democracy is driven by his desire to hold onto power, the only way to temper his extreme demands is to raise the political cost of his stubbornness.
This is where Trump can make a difference. Ahead of the Alaska summit, he warned of “severe consequences” if Putin refused a ceasefire, only to drop that threat after meeting with him. To pressure Putin, Trump could take several actions: increase military aid to Ukraine, use tariffs to restrict oil and gas sales that fund Russia’s military, or push Europe to use the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets for Ukraine’s defense and reconstruction.
It’s troubling that global stability hinges on managing the ego of a self-centered leader like Trump, but that’s our current reality. European leaders must guide him toward recognizing that defending Ukraine’s democracy is essential to any just resolution of the conflict—despite Trump’s usual preference for autocrats over democratic principles.
These steps may not come naturally to an American president, but if Trump truly wants to end the bloodshed in Ukraine, he must find the foresight to take them.
Kenneth Roth, former executive director of Human Rights Watch (1993–2022), is a visiting professor at Princeton’s School of Public and International Affairs. His new book, Righting Wrongs: Three Decades on the Front Lines Battling Abusive Governments, was published by Knopf and Allen Lane.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about the topic generated in a clear and natural tone
General Beginner Questions
Q Who is Kenneth Roth and why is his opinion on this important
A He is the former longtime executive director of Human Rights Watch a major international organization His opinion carries weight because hes an expert on human rights and international law which are central to understanding the wars impact
Q What does grasp the true nature of the war mean in simple terms
A It means understanding that this isnt just a simple territorial dispute Its a war of aggression by Russia that involves widespread war crimes attacks on civilians and a fundamental challenge to international rules that have kept peace since World War II
Q Why should Trump or any US leader care about this war
A Because a victory for aggression and war crimes sets a dangerous precedent If Russia succeeds it tells other powerful countries they can invade their neighbors without serious consequences making the world less stable and secure for everyone including the US
Q What are the main human rights issues in this war that Kenneth Roth would highlight
A The main issues include the deliberate targeting of civilian areas like apartments and hospitals executions and torture in occupied territories the kidnapping of Ukrainian children and the siege of cities like Mariupol
Advanced PolicyOriented Questions
Q How might Trumps previous stance of praising Putin and questioning US support for NATO affect his grasp of the wars nature
A This stance suggests he might view the war through a lens of personal relationships with leaders or a transactional deal rather than through the principles of law morality and global security that define the wars true nature as an act of aggression
Q What is the risk if a US leader sees this conflict only as a local dispute or a proxy war
A Seeing it as just a local dispute ignores Russias responsibility as the aggressor Viewing it only as a proxy war between the US and Russia dismisses Ukraines own sovereignty and right to defend itself which is the core of the issue
Q What specific practical tips might Roth suggest for a leader to properly understand the situation
