Fiye da mutane 450,000 na iya mutuwa sakamakon ƙarin zafi da super El Niño ke haifarwa cikin watanni shida masu zuwa, a cewar ƙiyasin masana kimiyyar yanayi. Wannan yana kan mutuwar da hauhawar yanayin zafi daga rikicin yanayi ya riga ya haifar. Tasirin za a ji shi a duk duniya, daga Indonesia zuwa Indiya, da Najeriya zuwa Amurka. Ana sa ran ƙarin mutuwa da yawa daga fari, gobarar daji, da ambaliya da El Niños ke kawowa.
An ƙiyasta mutuwar zafi bisa yanki, kuma masu bincike sun ce waɗannan hasashen suna nuna inda za a iya gabatar da matakan kariya don ceton rayuka. Irin waɗannan matakan na iya haɗawa da ingantaccen hasashen zafi, wuraren sanyaya inda mutane za su iya fakewa, ƙarin ma'aikata a wuraren kiwon lafiya a lokutan mafi zafi, da kariya ga ma'aikatan waje.
Hoto mai nuna manyan ƙasashe 10 da mutuwar zafi mai alaƙa da El Niño ya shafa.
El Niño da ke ɗumama duniya a halin yanzu ya karya mafi girman zafin da aka taɓa yi wa wannan al'amari a ranar Litinin, watanni da yawa kafin kololuwar da ake tsammani. Zafin ya fi na abubuwan da suka faru a baya girma sosai har masana kimiyya suka kira shi "abin mamaki" da "matakin Godzilla." El Niños al'amuran yanayi ne na halitta amma dumamar duniya na iya ƙara tsananta su.
"Ƙiyasin mutane 451,000 babbar lamba ce da za ta iya sa mutum ya kasa ji, amma ta ƙunshi iyaye da yara, kakanni da maƙwabta, mutane da ke zuwa aiki, suna kula da iyalai, kuma suna gudanar da rayuwarsu," in ji Farfesa Michael Greenstone, wanda ya haɗa kafa Cibiyar Tasirin Yanayi kuma na Jami'ar Chicago, wanda ya haɗa hannu wajen rubuta rahoton.
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Shin 'Godzilla' El Niño zai iya kawo shekarar mafi zafi da aka taɓa yi? – bayanin bidiyo
Ƙiyasin mutuwar ya shafi lokacin daga Satumba zuwa Fabrairu 2027, wanda shine lokacin da hasashen zafin yanzu ya ƙare. Amma ana sa ran ƙarin matakan mutuwar zafi za su ci gaba har zuwa Yuni ko Yuli 2027.
Ƙasashen da suka fi shafa cikin watanni shida masu zuwa sune ƙasashen wurare masu zafi na Najeriya, Indonesia, Sudan, Indiya, da Brazil. Amurka tana cikin manyan ƙasashe 20 da suka fi shafa, tare da ƙiyasin ƙarin mutuwar zafi 3,500. Gabaɗaya, yankin Sahel na Afirka da kudu maso gabashin Asiya sun fi shafa sosai.
Duba hoto a cikakken allo
Ambaliya a Benitu, Kudancin Sudan, 2023: rahoton ya ƙiyasta mutuwa 5,600 a Kudancin Sudan daga ƙarin zafin da super El Niño zai kawo cikin watanni shida masu zuwa. Hoto: Luke Dray/Getty Images
El Niño kuma "katin waya ne daga makomarmu," in ji masu binciken, yana tura yanayin zafi zuwa matakin da ake hasashen rikicin yanayi zai kai cikin shekaru 20.
"Ƙara mayar da martani na gaggawa da ingantaccen niyya ga ƙoƙarinmu na iya ceton rayuka da yawa a wannan shekara," in ji abokin marubucin rahoton Dr Tamma Carleton na Jami'ar California, Berkeley. "Amma shekaru 20 daga yanzu, da zarar matsanancin zafin yau ya zama sabon al'ada, ba ma son kasancewa cikin yanayin gaggawa na dindindin. Muna buƙatar yin shiri yanzu don tsarawa, turawa da kimanta kayan aikin da za su ceci rayuka a shekaru masu zuwa."
tsallake tallan wasiƙar labarai
Wasiƙar labarai kyauta | Mako-mako
Yi rajista ga Down to Earth
Muhimman labaran duniya. Sami duk labaran muhalli na mako - mai kyau, mara kyau da mahimmanci
Shigar da imel ɗinka Yi rajista
bayan tallan wasiƙar labarai
'Tilasta yin lissafi': Yadda Asiya ke shirya wa 'ƙaton' El Niño
Ƙara karantawa
An yi hasashen ne ta amfani da hanyoyin da aka yi bita na ƙwararru waɗanda ke bin alaƙar wata-wata tsakanin zafin jiki da ƙarin mutuwar zafi a yankuna 24,378 a duk duniya. An haɗa wannan da hasashen ƙarin zafin jiki saboda El Niño a watanni masu zuwa. Tushen shine adadin mutuwar zafi a matsakaicin wata daga 1996 zuwa 2025.
Hoto
"Mutane sun iya hasashen lokacin da za a sami matsala ga amfanin gona, kuma su ba da gargaɗi na gaba game da hakan," in ji Greenstone. "Wannan sabon rahoto yana buɗe ƙofa ga iya yin hakan don sakamako mafi muhimmanci - zan ce mafi muhimmanci sakamako shine mutuwa," in ji shi. Za a mika rahoton ga mujallar da ƙwararru suka yi bita, amma Greenstone ya ce ganin gaggawar yanayin, "zai zama rashin alhaki a yi shiru akai."
El Niño kuma zai shafi wadatar abinci. A watan Agusta, Shirin Abinci na Duniya ya yi gargaɗin cewa tasirinsa na iya jefa kusan mutane miliyan 50 cikin matsanancin yunwa da ƙara farashi. Wani babban El Niño a 1877-1878 ya haifar da mutuwa fiye da miliyan 50 daga fari da yunwa, inda Indiya, Brazil, da China suka fi shafa sosai.
Farfesa Friederike Otto na Kwalejin Imperial London ta gaya wa Guardian ranar Litinin: "Al'amarin El Niño na yanzu babbar sake rarraba makamashi ne a tsarin yanayi kuma yana da haɗari, saboda yana faruwa ne a kan tsarin yanayi mai ɗumi sosai da ɗan adam ya yi tasiri a kai.
"Don haka a wurare da yawa a duniya, za mu ga matsanancin zafi da ba a taɓa fuskanta ba, tare da duk sakamakonsa ga lafiya, wadatar abinci, da matsalar ruwa. El Niño yana zuwa yana tafiya, amma muddin muka ci gaba da ƙona albarkatun burbushin halittu, yana faruwa ne a kan tushe mai ƙara ɗumama, wanda ke sa al'ummomi su fi wahalar magance sakamakon."
Taron yanayi na Guardian 2026: Ranar Talata 20 Oktoba, shiga Damian Carrington da kwamitinmu na ƙwararru—ciki har da Farfesa Andy Haines, Katie White MP, Asad Rehman, Shruti Suresh, Gareth Thomas, da Amy Fairman—don maraice mai bege da mayar da hankali kan mafita. Yi tikitin a nan ko a guardian.live.
Tambayoyin da ake yawan yi
Ga jerin tambayoyin da ake yawan yi game da hasashen cewa babban El Niño zai iya haifar da mutuwar 450000 cikin watanni shida masu zuwa
1 Menene El Niño a sauƙaƙe
El Niño wani yanayin yanayi ne inda Tekun Pacific kusa da equator ke yin zafi fiye da yadda ya saba Wannan yana canza yanayi a duk duniya yana haifar da ambaliya fari zafi da hadari a yankuna daban-daban
2 Daga ina adadin mutuwar 450000 ya fito
Ya fito ne daga bincike da samfuran haɗari waɗanda ke ƙiyasta mutane nawa za su iya mutuwa daga yunwa cuta da bala'o'i masu alaƙa da babban El Niño Hasashe ne ba ƙididdiga da aka tabbatar ba
3 Shin wannan adadin tabbaci ne zai faru
A'a Ƙiyasi ne bisa abubuwan da suka faru na El Niño da suka gabata da yanayin yanzu Adadin na ainihi ya dogara da yadda El Niño zai yi ƙarfi da yadda gwamnatoci da ƙungiyoyin agaji za su mayar da martani
4 Me ya sa El Niño zai iya haifar da mutuwa da yawa haka
El Niño na iya haifar da fari da ke lalata amfanin gona ambaliya da ke yada cuta da raƙuman zafi da ke cutar da lafiya Waɗannan tasirin na iya haifar da ƙarancin abinci rashin abinci mai gina jiki da cuta musamman a yankuna masu rauni
5 Waɗanne ƙasashe suka fi cikin haɗari
Yankunan da tuni suke fuskantar talauci da raunin tsarin kiwon lafiya suka fi cikin haɗari Waɗannan galibi sun haɗa da sassan Gabashi da Kudancin Afirka Sahel Amurka ta Tsakiya da Kudanci da Kudu maso Gabashin Asiya
6 Ta yaya El Niño ke haifar da mutuwa a zahiri
Yawanci yana aiki ne a kaikaice Amfanin gona na lalacewa ruwa ya zama mara lafiya kuma cututtuka kamar kwalara da zazzaɓin cizon sauro suna yaduwa Mutane na iya mutuwa daga rashin abinci mai gina jiki bushewar jiki ko cututtukan da za a iya rigakafin su
7 Menene bambanci tsakanin El Niño da La Niña
El Niño shine lokacin dumi na yanayin Pacific La Niña shine lokacin sanyi Dukansu suna canza yanayin duniya amma ta hanyoyi daban-daban kuma galibi a yankuna daban-daban
8 Sau nawa babban El Niño ke faruwa
Ƙarfin al'amuran El Niño suna faruwa kusan kowace shekaru 10 zuwa 20 Mafi ƙarfi kamar 199798 da 201516 sun haifar da manyan tasiri a duniya
9 Me ya sa wannan El Niño yake da girma
Yana nufin yanayin zafin teku ya fi na al'ada ɗumi sosai a babban yanki Wannan na iya sa matsanancin yanayi ya fi ƙarfi kuma ya fi yaduwa
10 Za mu iya hana waɗannan mutuwar
Ba za mu iya dakatar da El Niño ba amma za mu iya rage mutuwa Tsarin gargaɗi da wuri taimakon abinci ruwa mai tsabta allurar rigakafi da amfanin gona masu jure fari
