Muna ganin abin da ke faruwa ga wanda yake son ya mallaka amma ya kasa. Iran ba za ta ja da baya ba. Tana iya jure wa matsin tattalin arziki na katanga fiye da yadda Donald Trump zai iya jure wa matsin siyasa daga hauhawar farashin mai—yanzu kusan dala 4.50 ga galan a matsakaita—bayan haka kuma hauhawar farashin abinci.
Rashin nasararsa a Iran ba kawai babban asarar siyasa ce ga Amurka ba; rikici ne na kansa ga Trump. Waɗannan hauhawar farashin, tare da yaƙin da ba ya da farin jini, suna sa ya zama mai yiwuwa Democrats su dawo da Majalisar Wakilai, watakila ma Majalisar Dattawa, a zaɓen tsakiyar wa'adi.
Me ya sa Friedrich Merz ya yanke shawarar yin kasada da fushin Donald Trump | Jörg Lau
Kara karantawa
Kuma, wannan ba kawai cin nasara ce ta siyasa ga Jam'iyyar Republican ba—rikici ne na kansa ga Trump. Ikon sa na son rai ba zai iya jure wa rashin nasara mai kunya ba, kamar yadda muka gani bayan zaɓen 2020. Bukatarsa ta cin zarafi, mallaka, da tilasta biyayya ta kasance cikin zurfin tunaninsa na rashin kwanciyar hankali, har rashin nasarorin da yake fuskanta yanzu—daga Iran da Democrats—suna haifar da fashe-fashe.
Yana yin posting fiye da kowane lokaci—yana kai hari, zagi, ba'a, barazana. A ranar Lahadi, Trump ya yi posting cewa Democrats sun “RIGGED the 2020 Presidential Election. GET TOUGH REPUBLICANS – THEY’RE COMING, AND THEY’RE COMING FAST! Ba su da kyau ga Ƙasarmu, sun kusan lalata ta, kuma ba ma son barin hakan ya sake faruwa!” Ya bukaci Republicans su “amince da dukkan matakan kariya da ake bukata don Zaɓe don kare Jama'ar Amurka a lokacin zaɓen tsakiyar wa'adi masu zuwa.”
Yawancin posts dinsa sun zama abubuwan yabo na wucin gadi da AI ya yi wa kansa—ikon sa na allahntaka, siffar jikinsa da aka inganta, da kuma tunaninsa na cikakken iko. A daren Juma'a, ya yi posting hoton da AI ya yi na kansa, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, da Doug Burgum, duk ba su da riga da jikunan matasa, suna tsaye a cikin tafkin da ke gaban Lincoln Memorial, tare da wata mata da ba a san ta ba sanye da bikini.
Bayan 'yan mintoci, ya yi posting hoton Shugaban 'Yan Tsiraru na Majalisar Wakilai Hakeem Jeffries yana rike da sandar wasan ƙwallon baseball, tare da rubutu yana kiran Jeffries “low IQ,” “a THUG,” da “a danger to our Country.” A ranar Talata, ya yi posting hotunan da AI ya yi na Joe Biden a kan gwiwa ɗaya tare da rubutu “COWARDS KNEEL,” Barack Obama tare da rubutu “TRAITORS BOW,” da kansa yana ɗaga hannu tare da rubutu “LEADERS LEAD.”
Yana fuskantar manyan rashin nasara biyu, Trump yana neman wasu hanyoyi don nuna ikonsa. Bakinsa—wanda ba a taɓa sarrafa shi ba—yanzu yana cikin yanayin gudana sosai. Har ya koma kai wa Paparoma hari, yana zarginsa da “yana jefa haɗari ga yawancin Katolika da mutane da yawa,” yana ƙara da cewa, “amma ina tsammanin idan ya rage ga Paparoma, yana ganin yana da kyau Iran ta mallaki makamin nukiliya.”
Ƙaunar ramuwar gayyarsa mai raunin fata ta wuce duk abin da muka taɓa gani, kuma wannan yana nufin abu mai yawa. A makon da ya gabata, bayan Shugaban Jamus Friedrich Merz ya ce Amurka “tana wulakanta ta daga shugabancin Iran,” Trump ya kai hari da ba'a ga Merz sau da yawa. Sai Ma'aikatar Tsaro ta ce tana janye sojoji 5,000 daga Jamus, kuma Trump ya ce yana ƙara haraji kan motoci da manyan motoci na Turai zuwa 25% (daga 15%).
Yana ƙara shagaltuwa da abubuwan tunawa da kansa—dakin rawa nasa, baka nasa, abin da ake kira “lambun jarumai,” fasfo dinsa da aka yi masa tambarin Trump, hotonsa a kan tsabar kudi na zinariya 24k, da sunansa da aka manna ko aka zana a ko'ina cikin Washington. Shirye-shiryensa na abubuwan tunawa da kansa suna ƙara girma kowace rana—mafi muni, mafi girma, kuma mafi tsada. Dattawan Majalisar Dattawa na Republican sun ba da shawarar ƙarin dala biliyan 1 don dakin rawa na Trump, wanda, a tuna, ya kamata “ya kashe masu biyan haraji komai.”
Har ma ya umurci Ma'aikatar Kuɗi ta sanar da cewa sa hannunsa—eh, wannan sa hannun da ke cikin littafin gaisuwar ranar haihuwa ga Jeffrey Epstein—zai maye gurbin sunan ma'ajin kuɗi a kan duk sabbin kuɗin takarda na Amurka a karon farko a tarihi, wanda ke nuna karon farko da sunan shugaban ƙasa mai ci ya bayyana a kan kuɗin da ke yawo.
Ƙaunar ramuwar gayyarsa kuma tana ƙaruwa. A makon da ya gabata, Ma'aikatar Shari'a ta fara wani shari'ar laifi a kan tsohon daraktan FBI James Comey—wanda kotu ta yi watsi da tuhumar da aka yi masa a baya—saboda ya yi posting hoton harsashin teku da ya rubuta “86 47” a Instagram shekara guda da ta wuce. Trump kuma yana matsawa ma'aikatar shari'a ta sake fara binciken laifi a kan Jerome Powell kuma ta kai hari ga tsohon shugaban hafsoshin soja Mark Milley da wasu da yake ɗauka a matsayin “maƙiya.”
Yana fuskantar manyan rashin nasara biyu—Iran da rasa ikon Majalisa—Trump yana neman wasu hanyoyi don nuna ikonsa. A ranar Talata, ma'aikatar ilimi ta sanar da binciken haƙƙin ɗan adam a Smith College saboda shigar da ɗaliban transgender. A ranar Alhamis, Trump ya bukaci a tuhumi Hakeem Jeffries da “INCITING VIOLENCE,” yana danganta harbe-harbe da aka yi a liyafar 'yan jarida ta Fadar White House da kiran Jeffries na yaƙin neman zaɓe na “maximum warfare” don mayar da martani ga Republican gerrymandering.
Ko me ya faru a Iran, zai yi iƙirarin nasara. Wannan zai yi wuya a yi nasara da shi yayin da farashin mai ya kasance sama da dala 4 ga galan, amma tabbas zai yi ƙoƙari.
Idan Democrats suka sami ikon ɗaya ko duka majalisun biyu a zaɓen tsakiyar wa'adi kuma ya ce sun yi rashin nasara ko sun yi magudi? Ƙasar da kyar ta tsira a karo na ƙarshe da Trump mai raunin fata ya fuskanci babban rashin nasara.
Za mu kuma fuskanci Trump a matsayin shugaban ƙasa mai rauni wanda ba zai iya mallaka da buƙatar biyayya kamar da ba. Shin zai yi ƙoƙarin ci gaba da mulki bayan wa'adinsa na biyu don guje wa hakan?
Mutumin ba shi da lafiya. Ba shi da lafiya sosai. Shugabanni masu rauni yawanci suna ɓacewa, amma masu mulkin kama karya da suka ji rauni na iya zama haɗari.
Robert Reich, tsohon sakataren kwadago na Amurka, farfesa ne a fannin manufofin jama'a mai ritaya a Jami'ar California, Berkeley. Shi marubuci ne na Guardian US kuma jaridarsa tana a robertreich.substack.com. Sabon littafinsa, Coming Up Short: A Memoir of My America, yana yanzu a Amurka da Burtaniya.
Tambayoyi da Aka Yi Yawa
Ga jerin tambayoyin da aka yi yawa da ke magana game da ra'ayin cewa rashin nasara a Iran zai zama rikici na kansa da na siyasa ga Donald Trump
Tambayoyi na Matakin Farko
Q Me ya sa Iran take da muhimmanci ga Trump a kansa?
A Da kansa ya yage yarjejeniyar nukiliya da Obama ya yi, yana kiranta mafi munin yarjejeniya da aka taɓa yi. Ya yi alkawarin zai sami yarjejeniya mafi kyau. Idan ya kasa hana ci gaban nukiliyar Iran ko kuma aka ja shi cikin yaƙi, hakan zai tabbatar da cewa dabarar yarjejeniya mafi kyau ta kasance gazawa, wanda ke bugun kai tsaye ga sunansa a matsayin mai yin yarjejeniya.
Q Me ake nufi da rikicin siyasa a wannan mahallin?
A Yana nufin matsayinsa a wurin masu jefa ƙuri'a da jam'iyyarsa ya rushe. Ya yi takara a kan babu sabon yaƙi da Amurka ta farko. Idan Iran ta haifar da yaƙi ko babban rikicin tattalin arziki, Republicans da masu zaman kansu za su zarge shi da rashin hankali.
Q Ta yaya Iran za ta cutar da Trump a siyasance?
A Idan Iran ta kai hari ga sojojin Amurka ko abokan kawance, Trump zai yi kama da rauni don ya hana su. Idan ya jefa bama-bamai a Iran don mayar da martani, ya karya alkawarinsa na kawo ƙarshen yaƙe-yaƙe marasa iyaka. Ko wanne sakamako yana rasa goyon baya daga masu jefa ƙuri'a masu adawa da yaƙi da masu goyon bayan soja.
Q Menene manufar Trump ta Maximum Pressure?
Ta kasance dabarar takunkumin tattalin arziki mai tsanani don shaƙe tallace-tallacen mai na Iran. Manufar ita ce tilasta Iran zuwa teburin tattaunawa. Idan Iran ta kera bam na nukiliya duk da waɗannan takunkumin, yana nufin matsin ya gaza.
Tambayoyi na Matakin Ci Gaba
Q Me ya sa ake ɗaukar wannan a matsayin rikici na kansa ga Trump ba kawai gazawar manufa ba?
A Trump yana da alamar kansa da aka gina a kan nasara da tsoratarwa. Yarjejeniyar Iran ta kasance babbar nasara ta Obama, lalata ta ya kasance zagayen nasara na kansa. Idan Iran ta sami makamin nukiliya ko ta kai hari ga Isra'ila, hakan zai tabbatar da cewa hukuncin Trump ya fi na Obama muni, wanda ke bugun rauni mai zurfi ga tunaninsa na kansa a matsayin babban mai sasantawa.
Q Wane yanayi ne zai zama mafi munin rikicin siyasa ga Trump?
A Yanayin da Iran ta sake fara inganta uranium mai girma kuma Amurka ta zaɓi tsakanin karɓar Iran mai nukiliya ko fara yaƙi mai tsada. Ko wanne zaɓi yana raba tushensa kuma yana ba Democrats babban batun yaƙin neman zaɓe.
