In Budapest today, bubble tea shops and all-day brunch spots—popular backdrops for social media posts—are as common as historic coffee houses and lines of tourists waiting for Danube river cruises. But there’s something new in the EU’s only one-party state: politics is back.
For 15 years, Viktor Orbán’s election wins seemed inevitable. Now, a credible challenger has emerged. Péter Magyar is no savior—in fact, he comes from Orbán’s own Fidesz party. But polls suggest his relatively new, pro-Western Tisza movement could defeat Orbán in April’s elections.
This wouldn’t just matter to Hungarians. After years of Orbán blocking EU policies, the outcome could shape the future of the European Union and democracy across the continent.
Hungary is what analysts call an “informational autocracy.” Rather than jailing critics, Orbán uses sophisticated tactics to silence opposition and stay in power. Central to his strategy is pushing populist stories that turn public opinion against “liberal elites.” Many argue this has undermined democracy and the rule of law, both in Hungary and beyond.
Orbán’s playbook—weakening independent media, fueling culture wars, and eroding constitutional checks—may have inspired Donald Trump’s alleged attacks on U.S. democracy. A former U.S. ambassador to Hungary recently wrote, “I watched it happen in Hungary, now it’s happening here.” A new documentary about Orbán is being recommended to Americans for its stark parallels to Trump’s methods.
This style of politics is also influencing far-right movements across Europe. Andrej Babiš, an ally of Orbán and France’s Marine Le Pen, is expected to return to power in the Czech Republic. Poland recently elected a nationalist president, and in the UK, Nigel Farage’s Reform party is gaining attention. Many see Orbánism as the common thread.
Péter Magyar, leader of the Tisza party, is now Orbán’s strongest rival in years. Meanwhile, the Central European University stands as a symbol of Hungary’s role as a testing ground for reversing democracy. Once a beacon of academic freedom, its Budapest campus now sits empty, forced out by a law Orbán passed in 2017 targeting the George Soros-linked institution.
Last week, the university’s former lecture halls were busy again as Budapest’s progressive mayor, Gergely Karácsony, hosted a “democracy forum.” He urged European politicians to counter the narratives that drive people toward populists. Whether Hungarians are ready for non-populist solutions remains uncertain.
According to former politician and academic Zsuzsanna Szelényi, “Orbán fatigue” is widespread, even in his rural support base. For most people, the pressing concerns are economic: high food prices, healthcare, and systemic corruption. Orbán is increasingly seen as out of touch, with a growing gap between his conspiracy-driven, anti-EU rhetoric and the daily struggles of ordinary Hungarians.
While backlash against Orbán’s crony-run system is not new, the energy of the opposition is. As one observer put it, “We have had a leadership crisis for 15 years, and that is over.””That is what gives Magyar a chance,” said Szelényi.
Katalin Cseh, an opposition MP whose party has decided not to contest the election in order to maximize the chances of unseating Orbán, agrees that Magyar’s centre-right policies are unclear. “But we share a strong belief in restoring democracy and ending systemic corruption,” she said.
Weakened… but don’t write him off
Orbán has won four consecutive elections by a landslide. Underestimating him would be foolish.
However, Krekó, director of the independent Political Capital thinktank, sees a crack in the “total confidence” that has long defined the regime.
Orbán’s attempt to ban Budapest Pride in June backfired. The march turned out to be the largest ever, partly thanks to Karácsony—a massive display of rainbow flags and anti-government defiance.
Krekó also points to a Fidesz stumble over a “chilling, draconian” bill that would have blacklisted organizations with any foreign ties. The bill has been put on hold, possibly due to internal Fidesz concerns that it could backfire.
“This shows the government is weaker than before; the economic situation is dire; in opinion polls it is lagging behind Tisza; and diplomatically within the EU, its lack of allies has become quite desperate,” Krekó said.
Still, Orbán commands a powerful arsenal. A series of generous government-funded incentives, such as extra payments for pensioners and tax cuts for mothers with two or more children, are expected.
“In 2022, Fidesz spent 6% of Hungary’s GDP on benefits that people received before the elections. Many women and no one under 25 pays income tax anymore. We can expect more of the same this time,” Szelényi said.
Campaigns that demonize “enemies of the people” to discredit the opposition are another tried-and-true method, Szelényi said. In the 2018 election, fears were stirred by linking refugees to terrorism. This time, the focus is on Ukrainians; Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s face appears alongside Ursula von der Leyen’s on posters as enemies. Magyar is being implausibly portrayed as an agent of Kyiv.
“Orbán’s approach is all about narratives, storytelling, threats, and emotions,” Szelényi said. “Interestingly, migration is no longer discussed. By 2019 it was a non-issue because, of course, Hungary needs migrants.” State agencies have quietly recruited hundreds of thousands of migrants from the Philippines and Vietnam to fill job vacancies.
Game of drones
Orbán’s dizzying geopolitical maneuvers—maintaining friendships with Trump, the Kremlin, and China simultaneously—could either backfire or help him stay in power.
Hungary is a NATO member. Russian military provocations, such as the incursion of Russian fighter jets into Estonia’s airspace, could make Orbán’s closeness to Putin difficult to defend. Even Trump is now saying NATO should shoot down Russian aircraft.
Some Hungarians, including Karácsony, want an end to Orbán’s ambivalence toward Russia. “My great-grandparents were taken…Many Hungarians were taken away to forced labor camps by Russian soldiers and never returned alive. Such stories are deeply engraved in the Hungarian soul,” he said.
Meanwhile, energy agreements continue to ensure a flow of cheap Russian oil and gas to Hungarian consumers—at least for now.
Trump may be cautious about Hungary’s ties with China, but Orbán’s courtship of Beijing secures investment for the country. In exchange, as Katalin Cseh noted, “China gains a Trojan horse within the European Union.”
### The Battle to Control the Narrative
In the cramped basement rooms of Budapest’s Terror House—where visitors are presented with the Fidesz-approved version of 20th-century Hungarian history—a video plays on a loop. It shows a younger, leaner Orbán delivering a speech about the evils of foreign invaders to an enthusiastic, applauding audience.
Szelényi knew Orbán well in the 1990s when they were both part of Fidesz’s early leadership and the party leaned toward the liberal center. She left as he steered the party toward more radical positions but recalls his reaction to losing the 2002 election. “That’s when he became very angry. He believed the loss was unjust and blamed liberal media elites. It became like a bug in his head.”
Now that his Christian nationalist ideology has made him a spiritual leader for a global “Maga” movement, would he accept an electoral defeat at home? Szelényi finds it hard to imagine. “Orbán does not want to be defeated. He has completely reorganized Fidesz’s campaign and placed himself at the forefront.”
New EU rules banning political advertising on social media take effect next month, but Fidesz is building its own online army to spread Orbán’s message through so-called digital “fighters clubs.” Reflecting on the struggle to control public perception, Szelényi sighs. Whoever dominates the narrative, she says, will win.
“It will be a brutal campaign.”
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Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about the challenge to Viktor Orbán with clear and concise answers
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 Who is Viktor Orbán
Viktor Orbán is the Prime Minister of Hungary He has been the countrys dominant political figure for most of the period since 2010 leading the Fidesz party
2 What is the serious challenge hes facing
The challenge comes from a new united opposition movement and a former insider from his own party Péter Magyar They are mobilizing largescale public protests and gaining significant support by criticizing corruption and Orbáns governance
3 Why is this challenge considered more serious than previous ones
Previous opposition parties were divided and weak This time a key insider is exposing alleged corruption from within the system and protests are attracting a broader range of Hungarians who are frustrated with the cost of living and perceived corruption
4 What are the main complaints against Orbán
The main complaints are widespread corruption among his allies close ties with Russia controlling most of the media and economic problems like high inflation
Advanced Detailed Questions
5 Who is Péter Magyar and why is he important
Péter Magyar is a former government insider who was married to Orbáns former Justice Minister He has turned against the government using his insider knowledge to make detailed allegations of corruption which gives his accusations more weight and public attention
6 Hasnt Orbán faced protests before Whats different now
Yes but past protests were often about single issues The current movement is broader combining anger over corruption the economy and a feeling that the political system is unfair making it a more fundamental challenge to Orbáns rule
7 What is Fideszs media machine and how does it help Orbán
Over the years Fidesz has brought most of Hungarys major media outlets under the control of its allies This means the governments message is dominant on TV and in newspapers making it very difficult for opposition voices to reach the general public
8 Can Orbán actually lose power
Its very difficult in the short term His party has a strong majority in parliament and the next scheduled election isnt until 2026
