If you think you’ve heard enough about the growing “super” El Niño, trust me—you’re going to hear a lot more. What’s happening in the equatorial Pacific is astonishing and could mark one of the biggest global weather disruptions in a thousand years. It will trigger a series of weather disasters around the world for the rest of this year and into 2027, and there’s no reason to believe the UK will escape unscathed.
To recap briefly: El Niño is a warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It occurs every few years as part of a natural cycle called the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which alternates between warm (El Niño) and cool (La Niña) phases. El Niños where warming reaches or exceeds 2°C are classified as “super,” but this one—forecast to peak at an astonishing 4°C later this year—is so much larger that “hyper” might be a better word.
El Niño is nothing new. Evidence of its existence goes back hundreds of millions of years, and its effects have always been negative and disruptive. What’s different today is that it’s occurring when our world is heating faster than ever before, and it’s being intensified as a result, leading to increasingly extreme weather.
Determining how much global heating alone is influencing El Niño isn’t straightforward, since its strength and other characteristics change naturally over time. Both El Niños and La Niñas, for example, have been steadily increasing in duration over the past 7,000 years. This is bad news in itself, as it means the world’s weather is thrown off balance for even longer. On top of that, stronger El Niños are becoming more frequent as we continue adding CO2 to the atmosphere.
There’s no simple correlation between El Niño’s strength and the scale of its impacts in any particular part of the world. But given the unprecedented amount of extra heat being added to the atmosphere over the Pacific, it’s reasonable to expect exceptionally dangerous weather worldwide over the next several months.
So how is the UK likely to fare? The Met Office has already warned of an increased likelihood of a stormy, wet autumn and early winter, so it would be wise to start preparing now for flooding on a serious—perhaps even epic—scale. After all, the last big El Niño, in 2015–16, caused the most extreme UK floods on record. Stronger winds are also a major concern, as many trees weakened by this summer’s extreme drought could be brought down by the powerful storms ahead. A strong El Niño could also bring Arctic air to the UK later in the winter, though this is far from certain. Whether El Niño fuels more record-breaking heat next summer also remains to be seen.
But there are likely to be indirect impacts on the UK too, thanks to the devastating effects strong El Niños have on the global economy. While the 2008 recession reduced global GDP by around $2 trillion, the 1997–98 super-El Niño caused losses of $5.7 trillion. Much of this was due to suppressed economic activity that can last up to 14 years after a strong El Niño. The late-90s El Niño—the most powerful of the 20th century—peaked at 2.4°C; the current one is already at 2.7°C, meaning significant impacts on UK food security, cost of living, and general economic wellbeing would not be surprising.
However the UK fares in the coming months, its challenges are likely to be minor compared with elsewhere in the world. The effects of the strengthening El Niño are already being felt keenly, particularly across India, which is experiencing its weakest monsoon in 20 years. As El Niño peaks later this year and slowly subsides, the west coast of South America and the western US can expect torrential rains, severe flooding, and mudslides. Meanwhile, heatwaves, drought, and wildfires will be the norm across the Amazon, southSoutheast Asia and much of Australia will also be affected. One small positive is that Atlantic hurricane activity tends to be suppressed during El Niño years, but this is more than offset by the increase in Pacific typhoons. California, in particular, is preparing for the worst, mainly because past super-El Niños have brought some of the wettest periods in the state’s history. This happens because El Niño years tend to encourage the formation of “atmospheric rivers” — streams of extreme precipitation that travel across the state from the Pacific for days at a time, dumping enormous amounts of rain. These conditions contributed to the great flood of 1862, which left a vast area of the state underwater, including a 480km-long stretch of the Central Valley. The biggest concern is that this unprecedented El Niño will bring about a megastorm worst-case scenario known as the ARkStorm. If that happens, expect millions of homes and businesses to be flooded, long-term damage to infrastructure, and economic losses totaling almost $1 trillion. Given that tech companies would also be severely affected, the knock-on effects could deal another heavy blow to the global economy. The effects of the El Niño will be felt well into 2027, almost certainly making next year the hottest ever recorded, possibly by a significant margin. It would not be surprising if the average global temperature reached at least 1.6C above preindustrial levels, and quite possibly 1.7C or more. Every tonne of CO2 added to the atmosphere helps El Niños get stronger, and it would be nice to imagine that the coming monster might serve as a wake-up call. But no. Governments continue to roll back green policies, and fossil fuel corporations still plan to expand. As this year’s super-El Niño looms large, the UK government advises us to stock up on food while it prepares to approve more fossil fuel extraction from the North Sea. Cognitive dissonance doesn’t even begin to describe the idiocy of such thinking. You couldn’t make it up.
Bill McGuire is professor emeritus of geophysical and climate hazards at UCL. His latest book is The Fate of the World: A History and Future of the Climate Crisis (HarperCollins Publishers, £20). To support the Guardian, order your copy at guardianbookshop.com. Delivery charges may apply.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on Bill McGuires article about the upcoming super El Niño
What exactly is a super El Niño
Its a very strong version of the El Niño weather pattern Super isnt an official scientific term but its used to describe events that are significantly more powerful than normal like the one in 20152016
What is El Niño in simple terms
Its a natural climate pattern where the Pacific Ocean gets unusually warm This warming changes weather patterns around the world leading to more extreme events like heavy rain droughts and heatwaves
What makes this one different from a regular El Niño
Its predicted strength Scientists are seeing signslike record ocean heatthat this El Niño could be one of the strongest on record A stronger El Niño means more severe and widespread global impacts
Why are scientists so worried about this one
Because its happening on top of humancaused global warming The extra heat from El Niño acts like a temporary boost on top of an already rising baseline temperature This can push weather systems past their breaking point
What kind of chaos are we talking about
Think extreme weather This includes severe droughts in some regions intense flooding in others and recordbreaking global heat
Is this related to climate change
Yes and no El Niño is a natural cycle However climate change is making El Niño events stronger and their impacts more severe The two are working together to create a bigger crisis
Will this affect where I live
It likely will but the effects depend on your location Some areas get more rain others get less The best way to know is to check forecasts from your national weather service
What are the biggest risks for people
The main risks are to food and water supplies Droughts can ruin crops and floods can contaminate water There are also direct risks from extreme heat wildfires and storms
When will the worst impacts hit
El Niño events typically peak in the winter and their effects can last into the following spring The worst impacts are often felt during this peak period and in the months after
What can I do to prepare
Stay informed Follow local weather warnings If you live in a floodprone area have a
