Viktor Orbán’s heavy defeat in last month’s Hungarian election has sparked a wave of democratic optimism. Around the world, democrats are drawing lessons from the results and speculating about the decline of the far right. There’s also a growing consensus that Donald Trump has gone from being an inspiration to a “liability” for the global far right.
While Orbán’s fall carries great symbolic weight and has important consequences for EU politics (like the EU-Ukraine deal), we should be careful not to read too much into it, for three reasons.
First, when it comes to lessons on how to defeat so-called illiberal democrats, we need to remember that Orbán had been in power for an unusually long 16 years. That gave him time to reshape not just Hungary’s politics, but its economy and society as well. His defeat wasn’t a rejection of his far-right policies—certainly not his anti-immigration stance, which the incoming prime minister, Péter Magyar, largely supports. Instead, it was a rejection of the country’s dire economic situation and the widespread corruption allegations against Orbán’s regime.
Magyar’s victory, as he prepares to be sworn in on Saturday, wasn’t so much an endorsement of his policies as it was the result of his tireless campaigning outside traditional opposition strongholds, in the most strategic constituencies, under an extremely disproportionate electoral system. While this strategy could work in majoritarian systems like France, the UK, and the US, it would have much less impact in proportional systems like the Netherlands. Still, as Zohran Mamdani has shown in New York City, grassroots organizing and old-fashioned door-knocking still matter.
Second, while the European far right has lost its unofficial leader, it’s not in decline. Sure, some far-right parties have recently lost elections (in Bulgaria, for example) or lost power (in the Netherlands). But far-right parties are still in government in several EU member states (like the Czech Republic and Italy) and lead the polls in others (like Austria and France). The reality is that the far right is here to stay, and many of its parties are just as established as the former “mainstream” ones. And like other parties, their electoral support goes up and down, influenced by internal and external factors like corruption, infighting, and government crises.
More importantly, the mainstreaming and normalization of far-right actors and ideas continues without pause. Giorgia Meloni’s Italy has become a must-visit destination for politicians trying to appear tough on immigration—from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to Keir Starmer. The European People’s Party (EPP), the EU-wide alliance of centre-right parties, is now openly working with far-right parties to pass laws in the European Parliament, while still openly flirting with Meloni.
And this collaboration isn’t limited to immigration. As far back as the 2024 EU elections, the EPP was adopting far-right skepticism about the climate crisis and environmental protection, in an effort to keep unhappy farmers from switching to the far right.
Third, it’s true that Trump is currently seen as “toxic” for the far right, though this had little impact on the Hungarian election. But this toxicity isn’t fixed. Simply put, when the US president threatens to occupy Greenland, leave NATO, or impose trade tariffs on the EU, he becomes a liability for European far-right parties. But when he’s mainly associated with anti-establishment and immigration policies, or his supposed fight against “the swamp” and “wokeness,” his popularity within the far right rises again—even though European far-right voters are generally quite skeptical of Trump. So the much-celebrated “break-up” between Meloni and Trump isThis approach is strategic rather than ideological, and therefore temporary rather than permanent. But Trump helps the European far right simply by being the U.S. president. Because when the president of the world’s most powerful country speaks, what he says is, by definition, not politically marginal. What’s more, much of what he says—no matter how extreme—gets normalized and rationalized in mainstream media and political discourse. Just look at how NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte fawns over him. This makes it harder to push similar arguments to the fringes in Europe.
Even worse, because Trump’s behavior is so extreme and often seems unhinged, it’s easy for European far-right leaders to appear “moderate” in comparison. After all, they’re “not as bad as Trump.” This endless comparison, and the refusal to recognize that there are different shades of far-right politics, helps savvy politicians like Meloni. By not acting as aggressively, erratically, or loudly as Trump (or, in her own country, Matteo Salvini), she gets mistaken for a mere “conservative” rather than a radical-right politician. She’s also helped by the implicit sexism of many observers, who assume women are less extreme and ideological than men.
None of this is meant to take away from Magyar or the wonderful Hungarian people who opposed and ousted Orbán—especially the many left-wing Hungarians who voted for a right-wing politician to save democracy. Nor is it to deny the symbolic importance of Orbán’s defeat. We should absolutely celebrate this important victory. But we should do so without oversimplifying or generalizing, so we can make sure similar election wins happen in Europe and the U.S.
Cas Mudde is the Stanley Wade Shelton UGAF Professor of International Affairs at the University of Georgia and author of The Far Right Today.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on the article Trump might be toxic and Orbán is out but Europes far right isnt fading away by Cas Mudde
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What is the main point of the article
The main point is that even though some farright leaders seem to be losing power or popularity the farright movement in Europe is not dying Its becoming more normal and integrated into mainstream politics
2 Who is Cas Mudde
Cas Mudde is a political scientist and expert on farright extremism He studies why these movements grow and how they change over time
3 Why does the article say Trump is toxic
The article suggests that Trumps stylechaotic divisive and increasingly extremehas made him a liability for some European farright parties They fear being too closely associated with him because it might scare away moderate voters
4 What happened to Viktor Orbán Why is he out
Orbán isnt completely out of power but his influence in Europe has weakened He lost some key allies and the EU has frozen funds for Hungary due to ruleoflaw concerns The article argues his brand of illiberal democracy is no longer the trendsetter it once was
5 If Trump and Orbán are struggling why isnt the far right fading
Because the far right has evolved Newer more polished leaders have made farright ideaslike nationalism antiimmigration and antiEU sentimentseem normal and acceptable Theyve moved from the fringe to the center of political debate
IntermediateLevel Questions
6 How is the new European far right different from the old one
The old far right was openly neoNazi violent and antidemocratic The new far right is more strategic it uses social media talks about cultural preservation instead of race and works within democratic systems to change them from the inside They are populist radical right rather than fascist
7 What does the article mean by mainstreaming of the far right
Mainstreaming means that farright ideas like blaming immigrants for crime
