Zabe da zai iya tsara makomar siyasar Burtaniya na shekaru masu zuwa yana faruwa a ranar Alhamis. Amma yana faruwa ne kawai a wani ƙaramin yanki na arewa maso yammacin Ingila, inda mutane sama da 70,000 ne kawai ke da damar jefa kuri'a.
Me yasa? Akwai dalilai da yawa—wasu suna da alaƙa da yadda tsarin siyasar Burtaniya ke aiki, wasu kuma sun fi na yanzu.
A taƙaice—me ke faruwa kuma me yasa yake da muhimmanci?
Masu jefa kuri'a a Makerfield, wani yanki da galibi birni ne a gefen Wigan, Greater Manchester, suna zabar sabon dan majalisa bayan wanda ya gabata ya yi murabus. Dan takarar jam'iyyar Labour mai mulki kuma wanda ake tsammanin zai yi nasara shine Andy Burnham, magajin garin Greater Manchester kuma tsohon dan majalisa.
Idan Burnham ya yi nasara, mutane da yawa suna tsammanin zai fara yakin neman maye gurbin Keir Starmer a matsayin shugaban Labour—saboda haka kuma firaministan Burtaniya—ko kuma ya shawo kan Starmer ya yi murabus. Idan abubuwa suka tafi yadda ake tsammani, Burtaniya na iya samun firaminista na bakwai tun daga 2017 a cikin 'yan makonni ko watanni kawai.
Ta yaya wannan ke aiki a tsarin mulki?
A karkashin wata al'ada mai karfi ta tsarin mulki—Burtaniya ba ta da kundin tsarin mulki a rubuce—firaminista koyaushe memba ne na House of Commons, inda dukkan 'yan majalisa 650 ke wakiltar wani yanki na musamman.
Burnham ya kasance dan majalisa na mazabar Leigh daga 1997 zuwa 2017, ya yi aiki a matsayin ministan gwamnati, kuma sau biyu ya yi takarar shugabancin Labour bai yi nasara ba. Amma ya bar Westminster lokacin da Labour ke adawa, bayan an zabe shi magajin garin Greater Manchester.
Don kalubalantar Starmer, Burnham yana bukatar sabon kujera. Bayan tattaunawa da yawa, daya daga cikin abokansa, Josh Simons, ya amince ya yi murabus a matsayin dan majalisar Makerfield, wanda ya haifar da abin da ake kira zaben fidda gwani—gasar kujera daya da ake yi idan aka samu gurbi tsakanin babban zabe.
Me yasa Burnham ke son Starmer ya tafi?
Ba shi kadai ba. Kimanin 'yan majalisa 100 na Labour sun yi kira a fili ga Starmer ya yi murabus, kuma wasu da yawa suna jin haka a asirce. Yawancin hakan son kai ne—Labour tana ci gaba da yin kasa a baya a zaben ra'ayin jama'a a gaban jam'iyyar Reform UK mai tsattsauran ra'ayi, kuma ta yi mummunan aiki a watan Mayu a zabukan majalisun Scotland da Wales da aka raba, da kuma kujerun kananan hukumomi a duk Ingila.
Amma 'yan majalisa da yawa na Labour kuma suna ganin Starmer ba shi da wani hangen nesa na siyasa na gaske ko kuma wani shiri mai yawa, kuma sun gan shi yana ta jujjuya daga wani juyi zuwa wani. Wasu da yawa suna damuwa cewa ba tare da mataki ba, Reform za ta ci zabe na gaba.
Shin Burnham zai ci kujerar?
Amsar takaice ita ce eh—yawancin mutane sun yi imanin zai yi, ko da sakamakon zai iya zama kusa sosai. Amsar mai tsawo ita ce Makerfield irin kujerar da Labour ta saba cin nasara a kai cikin sauki—jam'iyyar ta rike ta tun lokacin da aka kirkiro ta a sake tsara iyakokin majalisa a 1983—amma yanzu tana fama da ita.
Tare da masu jefa kuri'a da galibi manya, marasa ilimi, kuma ba su da yuwuwar fitowa daga kabilun tsiraru, Makerfield—kamar yawancin kujerun masana'antu iri daya a arewacin Ingila—yanzu tana goyon bayan Reform sosai, karkashin jagorancin Nigel Farage, wanda ya jagoranci shawarar Burtaniya ta barin EU a 2016.
Fatanshi Burnham shine cewa kwarjinsa, tare da sunansa a matsayin magajin gari wanda yawanci jama'a ke so, zai taimaka masa ya tsallake. Hakanan ya sami taimako daga yakin neman zaben Reform wanda bai yi kyau ba—dan takarar jam'iyyar, wani mai aikin famfo na gida mai suna Robert Kenyon, ya fuskanci suka game da wasu rubuce-rubucen da ya yi a shafukan sada zumunta a baya, ciki har da wasu maganganun nuna jima'i da sauran maganganun batsa.
Idan Burnham ya yi nasara, me zai biyo baya?
Starmer ya sha fada cewa, bayan shekaru biyu kacal da babban nasarar zabe, ba zai tafi ko'ina ba kuma zai yi yaki da duk wani mai kalubalantar shi. Duk da haka, abokan Burnham suna fatan za a iya shawo kansa ya sanya lokacin tafiyarsa.
Idan hakan ta faru kuma babu wani dan majalisa da ya nemi shugabancin, Burnham zai iya zama firaminista cikin 'yan makonni. Amma akalla wani dan majalisa, Wes Streeting, wanda ya yi murabus a matsayin sakataren lafiya a watan da ya gabata, ya yi alkawarin shiga takara.
Idan aka yi takara, ta yaya take aiki?
Dan majalisa yana bukatar akalla nade-nade 80 daga sauran 'yan majalisar Labour don fara takara. Duk wani dan majalisa da ya kai wannan matakin kuma zai shiga, kamar yadda mai ci zai yi. Idan shugaban mai ci ya zabi ya yi murabus, za a yanke shawarar wanda zai maye gurbinsa ta hanyar tsohuwar doka. Sunayen za a gabatar da su ga 'yan jam'iyyar Labour don kada kuri'a, wani tsari da zai dauki akalla makonni hudu ko biyar, ganin bukatar taron jama'a da makamantansu.
Wanene zai ci irin wannan takara? Har yanzu, kudi sun fi kan Burnham, ko da yake wasu magoya bayan Starmer suna jayayya cewa zai iya jan hankalin amincin 'yan jam'iyyar Labour da suka zabe shi a 2020. Ana kallon Streeting a matsayin dan waje amma kwararre ne na siyasa, ana daukarsa a matsayin dan tsakiya-dama na jam'iyyar Labour.
Yaya gwamnatin Burnham za ta kasance? Wasu masu suka sun ce za ta kasance kamar ta Starmer, amma da kyakkyawar gabatarwa. Da muhimmanci, yawancin magoya bayan Burnham suna jin dadin iya maganarsa cikin nutsuwa, musamman idan aka kwatanta da salon Starmer wanda yawanci yana da matsi da rashin dadi.
A kan manufofi, yayin da Burnham ya kasance a tsakiya-dama na jam'iyyar, a matsayin magajin gari ya samar da wani tsarin ra'ayi na hagu, bisa wani nau'i na kusan tsarin hadin gwiwa irin na Turai. Wanda ake kira da "Manchesterism," yana jayayya cewa yayin da kasuwanni masu 'yanci suke da muhimmanci, dole ne a daidaita su da wasu iko na gwamnati, har ma da mallaka, musamman a cikin muhimman abubuwa kamar kayan aiki, sufuri, da gidaje.
Tambayoyi da Amsoshi
Ga jerin tambayoyin da ake yawan yi game da sha'awar da ake yi wa zaben fidda gwani a arewa maso yammacin Ingila
Tambayoyi na Matakin Farko
Tambaya Menene zaben fidda gwani
Amsa Zabe ne na musamman da ake yi tsakanin manyan zabuka don cike kujera daya da ta fankama a Majalisa, yawanci saboda dan majalisa ya yi murabus ko ya mutu
Tambaya Me yasa wani ya damu da kujera daya kawai a arewa maso yammacin Ingila
Amsa Domin yawanci takara ce mai matukar kusanci Idan jam'iyyar da ta saba cin nasara a can ta rasa, hakan na iya nuna babban canji na siyasa a duk fadin kasar
Tambaya Shin wannan zaben fidda gwani yana cikin birni ne ko kuma yanki na karkara
Amsa Ya dogara da mazabar ta musamman A arewa maso yammacin Ingila, suna iya kasancewa a manyan birane kamar Manchester ko Liverpool ko kuma a garuruwa da yankunan karkara kamar Cheshire ko Lancashire
Tambaya Shin sakamakon yana canza wanda ke tafiyar da kasar da gaske
Amsa Yawanci a'a, domin gwamnati har yanzu tana da rinjaye a Majalisa Amma yana iya raunana gwamnati ko kuma nuna cewa suna rasa goyon baya
Tambayoyi na Matakin Tsaka-tsaki
Tambaya Me yasa wannan zaben fidda gwani na musamman yake samun hankali fiye da sauran
Amsa Yawanci saboda mazabar tana da alamar hasashen zabe ko kuma saboda wata babbar badakalar siyasa ko murabus da ta haifar da shi Arewa maso yamma na da kujerun da ke da gasa sosai
Tambaya Menene ma'anar kujera mai aminci da kujera mai gasa a nan
Amsa Kujera mai aminci ita ce wacce jam'iyya daya ke ci gaba da cin nasara da babban tazara Kujera mai gasa ita ce takara mai kusanci Zaben fidda gwani a kujerun arewa maso yamma masu gasa yana da ban sha'awa domin canji kadan a masu jefa kuri'a na iya juya sakamakon
Tambaya Ta yaya zaben fidda gwani yake shafar jam'iyyun siyasa na kasa
Amsa Babban gwaji ne ga jam'iyyar da ke mulki Idan suka rasa kujerar da suka rike shekaru da yawa, hakan na iya haifar da rikicin shugabanci Ga 'yan adawa, cin nasarar kujera mai ban mamaki yana ba su karfi da yawa da kuma labarai a kafafen yada labarai
Tambaya Wane irin rawar al'amuran gida suke takawa
Amsa Babbar rawa A zaben fidda gwani, masu jefa kuri'a sun fi mayar da hankali kan matsalolin gida fiye da labaran kasa Dan takara da ya yi alkawarin gyara asibiti na gida ko ceton masana'anta na iya jan hankalin masu jefa kuri'a da suka saba goyon bayan wata jam'iyya
Tambayoyi na Matakin Gaba Ayyuka
