Tuddan man shanu masu girma, tafkunan giya, da kuma haramcin EU na ban mamaki akan ayaba masu lankwasa sun zama tushen tatsuniya a bayan bala'in kuri'ar raba gardama ta Brexit a Biritaniya a shekarar 2016. Amma duk da cewa yawancin ikirarin Vote Leave sun wuce gona da iri, ba daidai ba ne, ko kuma gaba ɗaya ƙarya ne, ikon EU na sanya kanta ta zama abin dariya bai ƙare ba bayan shekaru goma. Ka ɗauki misalin batun koke-koke na kwamishinonin EU, waɗanda suka ji haushi cewa motocin lantarki na hukuma ba za su iya ɗaukar tafiyar mil 280 mai cin lokaci tsakanin Brussels da Strasbourg ba tare da buƙatar cajin wutar lantarki ba.
Wannan muhimmin batu, wanda Politico ta fara ba da rahoto, yana tayar da tambayoyi masu mahimmanci. Shin waɗannan manyan jami'an da ake biyan su albashi mai yawa suna buƙatar "motocin kamfani" da direbobi? Tabbas za su iya ɗaukar jirgin ƙasa, tashi, ko kuma hawa keke. Yin amfani da motocin lantarki wajibi ne don tafiye-tafiyen hanya. Ana ba da motocin a matsayin wani ɓangare na manufar rage fitar da iskar gas ta EU Green Deal, wanda kwamishinonin ya kamata su goyi bayan, ba su yi koke-koke ba. To me yasa aka ba wa shugabar hukumar, Ursula von der Leyen, izinin amfani da injin mai? Babbar tambaya ita ce me yasa ake yin waɗannan tafiye-tafiyen Brussels-Strasbourg masu ban gajiya tun da farko?
Amsar ita ce majalisar Tarayyar Turai ba ta aiki kamar kowace majalisa ta yau da kullun ba. Tana gudanar da zaman ta a biranen biyu, kamar yadda yarjejeniyar ta buƙata. Sau goma sha biyu a shekara, kwamishinoni, jami'ai, da ɗaruruwan 'yan majalisar Turai suna yin tafiyar, wanda ke kashe wa masu biyan haraji miliyoyin Yuro. A shekarar 2023, jirgin ƙasa da aka yi niyya don kai 'yan majalisar Turai zuwa Strasbourg an karkatar da shi zuwa Disneyland bisa kuskure, wanda wasu marasa tausayi suka ɗauka cewa ya dace. Duk da haka, duk da wahala da kashe kuɗi, Faransa ba za ta taɓa barin a kewaye Strasbourg ba. Girman ƙasa yana cikin haɗari.
Irin waɗannan labaran "jirgin ruwan miya" na EU sun girgiza masu goyon bayan Brexit a Biritaniya amma da alama ba sa damuwa da masu jefa ƙuri'a a yau a yankunan arewacin Turai, inda sabon sha'awa har ma da sha'awar EU ke girma ba zato ba tsammani. Iceland za ta gudanar da kuri'ar raba gardama ta ƙasa a watan Agusta kan sake fara tattaunawar shiga. Ta sanya hannu kan haɗin gwiwar tsaro da tsaro tare da Brussels a watan Maris. A Norway, wadda ta daɗe ba ta shiga EU ba, babbar jam'iyyar adawa ta masu ra'ayin mazan jiya yanzu tana son ƙasar ta shiga ƙungiyar. Faroe Islanders ma, an ruwaito suna sake yin la'akari da yunƙurinsu na neman 'yancin kai daga Denmark, memba na EU.
Abubuwa biyu na gama gari suna ɗumamar zukatan arewa masu sanyi. Ɗayan shi ne yaƙin neman zaɓe na Donald Trump akan Greenland – yankin Danish mai iko wanda ya yi barazanar mamaye shi "ko suna so ko ba su so." Shugaban Amurka, wanda kuma yana da sha'awar Kanada, Cuba, da Panama kuma kwanan nan ya sace shugaban Venezuela, ya ce ikon mallakar Greenland mai albarkatu ya zama dole don tsaron Amurka. Wannan manufar kwace da kai tana nuna imanin Trump na mamayar Amurka a kan yammacin duniya – abin da Rashawa, a yankinsu, suka saba kira "kusa da waje."
Yakin neman zaɓe na Trump na kankara ya kunna ƙararrawa a ko'ina cikin arewa mai nisa. Bayan suka mai tsauri daga shugabannin EU da NATO, Trump, wanda ya shagala da bala'in Iran, ya yi shiru a yanzu – amma bai daina ba. Bayan ya gayyaci kansa zuwa babban birnin, Nuuk, a wannan watan, Jeff Landry, "manzo na musamman" na Trump (wanda, abin mamaki, shi ne gwamnan Republican na Louisiana), Firayim Minista Jens-Frederik Nielsen ya gaya masa a sarari cewa Greenland "ba ta siyarwa." Ba abin mamaki ba, barazanar Amurka ta sanya mafarkin 'yancin kai na Greenland a tsaye, ta matsar da su kusa da Denmark da EU.
Yana nuna wani abu na biyu na gama gari da ke tasiri ga ra'ayin yanki, Ministan Harkokin Waje na Iceland, Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir, ta gaya wa Miranda Bryant na Guardian a wannan makon cewa tana cikin damuwa cewa tsoma bakin Rasha na ɓoye da cutarwa a kuri'ar raba gardama ta EU mai zuwa a Reykjavík na iya taimakawa yaƙin neman zaɓe na "a'a" kuma ya haifar da "lokacin Brexit" na Iceland. Ta yi gargadin cewa rashin gaskiya da maganganun da aka ɗauka kai tsaye "daga littafin wasan Nigel Farage da Reform" na iya yuwuwa su canza sakamako. Idan muka kalli babban hoto, gasa mai girma da rashin kwanciyar hankali tsakanin Rasha, Amurka, da China a yankin Arctic – wani yanki mai mahimmanci na dabaru wanda ke zama mai sauƙin shiga – yana sa mutanen yankin su mai da hankali kan fa'idodin kasancewa cikin manyan ƙungiyoyi masu yawa kamar EU. Iceland, kamar Greenland, ba ta da sojojinta kuma ta dogara da NATO – galibi Amurka – don tsaro. Amma a zamanin Trump, wannan garantin tsaro yana da manyan gibi, kamar yadda manyan ƙasashen Turai, ciki har da Biritaniya, ke gani da wahala.
Kasancewa memba na EU, ko kuma musamman, sabunta zama memba, ya zama batu mai rikitarwa a babban zaɓe na Makerfield a ranar 18 ga Yuni, wanda ya zo daidai da ranar tunawa da Yaƙin Waterloo. Keir Starmer yana son sake daidaita dangantakar Birtaniya da EU. Abokan hamayyarsa na shugabanci, Andy Burnham – ɗan takarar Labour a Makerfield – da Wes Streeting, duk suna goyon bayan komawa cikin EU, ko ba dade ko ba jima. Reform na son kuri'ar ta kasance game da Turai da "cin amana" na gwamnati. Evelyn Waugh zai iya kiran shi Brexit sake ziyara, amma wannan lokacin ba tare da barkwanci ba.
Duk wannan sha'awar shiga, sake shiga, kusantowa (ko nisantar) EU yana tayar da babbar tambaya: shin Brussels tana iya fuskantar ƙalubalen geopolitical? Barazanar biyu daga gabas da yamma suna ba da dalilai na musamman don farfado da sake fasalin tsoffin cibiyoyinta masu bin doka da jinkirin tafiyar. A wannan makon, shugaban sa ido na GCHQ, Anne Keast-Butler, ta nuna ƙoƙarin Rasha na ƙaruwa – wanda ya gaza a Ukraine – na tsoratarwa da tada zaune tsaye a ƙasashen Turai ta hanyar hare-haren yanar gizo, zagon ƙasa, kisan gilla, rashin gaskiya, da tsokana na soji, kamar harin lantarki na kwanan nan a kan jirgin RAF na sakataren tsaron Birtaniya John Healey. "Rasha tana ƙara yawan ayyukanta na haɗin gwiwa na yau da kullun a kan Birtaniya da Turai," in ji ta.
Amsoshin EU ga Trump ba su da haɗin kai kuma sun yi yawa na sulhu, ko da yake shugabannin ƙasa kamar Friedrich Merz na Jamus sun ɗauki matsayi mai tsauri kan Iran. Yarjejeniyar kasuwanci ta Amurka da EU ta bara ta kasance wulakanci. A kan tallafawa Ukraine, Turai ta fi yawa ta sami damar kasancewa tare da haɗin kai a kan ta'addancin Vladimir Putin da koma bayan Trump mai tsanani, ko da yake a aikace, sau da yawa tana yin kaɗan, da latti. Game da neman zama memba na Ukraine da manufar faɗaɗawa gabaɗaya, tarihin EU na kwanan nan ba shi da kyau. Ƙasashen da ke neman zama membobi suna jere a ko'ina cikin Balkans da gabashin Turai. Turkiyya tana jira tun 1987.
Duk da ƙoƙarin shugaban Faransa, Emmanuel Macron, EU har yanzu tana da shekaru da yawa daga ƙirƙirar "sojojin Turai" mai dogaro da kai, wanda ya bambanta da NATO da Amurka ke jagoranta, kuma tana ci gaba da rashin aiki sosai a cikin masana'antar kera makamai da sayayya. Yayin da von der Leyen ta kware a kiyaye faranti da yawa suna juyawa, ba makawa tana tafiya da'ira. Damar ƙarfafa EU ta hanyar gyara dangantaka da Hungary bayan Viktor Orbán, da kuma Birtaniya mai dawowa, na iya ɓacewa – ta hanyar toshewa daga rigingimun kasafin kuɗi na ƙasashe mambobi marasa iyaka, hamayyar ƙasa, rashin tunanin siyasa, da rashin aiki na yau da kullun a Brussels.
Imani da mutane a Iceland, Greenland, da sauran abokan arewa ke da shi game da ikon EU na taimaka musu su tsira da bunƙasa a cikin duniya mafi haɗari, da fatan ba a yi kuskure ba. Maharba kamar Putin da Trump, da kuma dakarun mayar da martani masu haɗin gwiwa kamar Reform UK, ba za su jira Turai ba idan Turai ta kasa cin gajiyar lokacin. Waɗancan kwamishinonin Brussels masu koke-koke ya kamata su fara motsi.
Simon Tisdall mai sharhi ne kan harkokin waje na Guardian.
**Tambayoyi da Amsoshi Akai-akai**
Ga jerin tambayoyin da aka yi akai-akai bisa ga tambayar Yaushe EU za ta fara aiki a matsayin babbar ƙasa a cikin duniya mai haɗari?
**Tambayoyi na Matakin Farko**
1. **Menene ma'anar EU ta zama babbar ƙasa a cikin duniya mai haɗari?**
Yana nufin samun ƙarfin soja, haɗin kai na siyasa, da saurin yanke shawara don kare iyakokinta, tsoratar da barazana, da rinjayar abubuwan duniya maimakon dogaro da Amurka ko NATO kawai don tsaro.
2. **Me yasa EU a yanzu ba ta aiki a matsayin babbar ƙasa?**
Domin ta ƙungiya ce ta ƙasashe 27, kowanne yana da sojojinsa, manufofin harkokin waje, da ikon veto. Yana da wuya a amince da amsa guda ɗaya mai sauri lokacin da kowane memba yana da fifiko daban-daban.
3. **Shin EU tana ƙoƙarin zama babbar ƙasa?**
Ee. Tana saka hannun jari a ayyukan tsaro na haɗin gwiwa, ƙirƙirar rundunar mayar da martani mai sauri, da ƙoƙarin rage dogaro da makamashi ga Rasha. Amma ci gaba yana da jinkiri.
4. **Menene babban cikas ga EU zama ƙasa mai iko a duniya?**
Rashin haɗin kai. Ƙasashe kamar Hungary ko Jamus sau da yawa suna toshe ayyukan soja ko harkokin waje masu ƙarfi saboda suna tsoron haɓaka, tsada, ko rasa ikon mallaka.
**Tambayoyi na Matsakaici**
5. **Idan EU ba za ta iya kare kanta ba, me yasa ƙasashe za su so su shiga?**
Shiga EU har yanzu yana ba da kwanciyar hankali na tattalin arziki, damar kasuwanci, da kariyar Mataki na 42. Amma ƙasashe masu neman shiga kamar Ukraine ko Moldova yanzu suna tambaya: Shin EU za ta yi yaƙi don mu da gaske ko kuma ƙungiyar kasuwanci ce kawai?
6. **Menene zai canza idan EU ta yi aiki a matsayin babbar ƙasa?**
Zai iya tura sojoji da sauri, sanya takunkumin tattalin arziki na gaske wanda zai cutar da abokan gaba, da kuma yin shawarwarin zaman lafiya daga matsayi na ƙarfi – ba kawai daga matsayin "mu ci gaba da magana" ba.
7. **Shin EU ta taɓa yin aiki a matsayin babbar ƙasa a cikin rikici?**
Da wuya. A lokacin mamayewar Ukraine na 2022, EU ta yi aiki da sauri kan takunkumi da kudade, amma har yanzu ta dogara da NATO don tsaron soja. A rikicin ƙaura na 2015, ta kasa yin aiki da ƙarfi.
8. **Menene ya kamata ya faru don EU ta zama babbar ƙasa?**
Abubuwa uku: 1) Kawo ƙarshen veto kan manufofin harkokin waje; 2) Ƙirƙirar rundunar soja ta Turai ta gaske; 3) Sauya tsarin yanke shawara don ba da damar ayyuka cikin gaggawa ba tare da jiran yardar kowane memba ba.
