A catastrophe. A 9.0 earthquake. A five-alarm fire. A bitter rejection of Germany’s joyful reunification three decades ago, and a threat to the democratic postwar order.
Assessing the fallout from last weekend’s victory for the far-right Alternative für Deutschland party in the former communist state of Saxony-Anhalt, German commentators expressed a sense of doom, panic and helplessness in the political establishment.
With nearly 44% of the vote, the AfD fell three seats short of an absolute majority. Its media-savvy lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, is racing to find enough support from other parties to prop up what would be the first right-wing extremist state government since the Nazi period.
View image in fullscreen
AfD co-leaders Alice Weidel (right) and Tino Chrupalla (left) with Saxony-Anhalt lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund. Photograph: Ebrahim Noroozi/AP
It is still anyone’s guess whether he will succeed, leaving a corrosive uncertainty at the heart of Europe’s top economic power. Hanging in the balance is the fate of Friedrich Merz’s centre-right government, once called “democracy’s last shot” to prevent an extremist takeover in Germany.
‘It breaks my heart’: far-right’s big election victory sparks dismay in German state capital
Read more
The result in Saxony-Anhalt has put the conservative chancellor on the ropes, with further punishment for his Christian Democratic Union party (CDU) expected in two more state polls later this month.
“This is the worst defeat for the CDU in years – decades – and something has changed, not just in Saxony-Anhalt but in all of Germany,” he said on Monday.
Whether or not he survives politically until the next general election, due in 2029, will have dramatic repercussions for Germany and its European allies trying to beat back anti-democratic forces. Pivotal elections are due next year in countries including France, Spain, Italy and Poland.
Merz’s many critics say the 70-year-old former BlackRock executive is the wrong man at such a consequential crossroads, calling him a ham-fisted and empathetically challenged leader who is erratic in his messaging.
Only in office 16 months, the chancellor often seemed incapable of one of the basic tasks of leadership: making the case to voters that accepting bitter pills now could lead to a brighter future, said the political scientist Thomas Biebricher of Frankfurt’s Goethe University.
View image in fullscreen
Friedrich Merz: his future as chancellor is uncertain. Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
“The prevailing impression at the moment is that, in terms of communication, he is unable to explain the many reforms – and the sacrifices they entail – to the public, and thereby win their acceptance,” Biebricher said, referring to planned cuts to the statutory pension and healthcare schemes.
The former chancellor Angela Merkel, Merz’s longtime rival within the CDU, has criticised him publicly for his hardline rhetoric on migration and integration but said she took no pleasure in the debacle given the stakes.
“This is a turning point – a real turning point – in the history of the federal republic of Germany,” said Merkel, who left office of her own accord in 2021 after 16 years in power. “As a CDU member it breaks my heart.”
View image in fullscreen
Merz speaking to Angela Merkel at the CDU federal conference in Stuttgart in February. Photograph: Getty Images
Speaking at a digital affairs conference on Tuesday, she advised Merz to rethink his messaging in a changing political ecosystem in which emotions counted more than facts.
Merkel, 72, noted that the CDU had pointed to data during the Saxony-Anhalt campaign showing that joblessness had fallen and household wealth had risen in the small, relatively poor state. “And then [Siegmund] says: ‘That may be so, but that’s not how it feels.'”
The AfD formed in 2013, during Merkel’s tenure, as a Eurosceptic outfit opposed to bailouts for debt-mired countries.It became more radical during the 2015–2016 refugee crisis, when she kept the borders open to over a million asylum seekers fleeing war and hardship.
Merz took office last year, promising to get the country back on track after the previous government under Olaf Scholz collapsed. He pledged to restore economic growth, rebuild defence capabilities, and urgently fix the struggling social welfare system.
His plan for tackling the far right — one of his main promises — was to govern competently and solve Germans’ most pressing problems.
Merz also vowed to reject Merkel’s open-border policy, hoping to take away the AfD’s signature issue. He famously accepted support from the far-right party for a tough migration bill just before the February 2025 general election, then backed down after protests.
View image in fullscreenAfD co-leader Alice Weidel walks past Merz at the Bundestag this week. Photograph: John MacDougall/AFP/Getty Images
As “irregular” migrant arrivals have dropped sharply since Merz took office, the AfD has successfully shifted to a wider range of issues — deindustrialisation, regional identity, affordability, and crime — to gain support far beyond its eastern stronghold.
The AfD, widely considered more radical than similar European parties, had been kept in permanent opposition in Germany by the “firewall” strategy of mainstream parties refusing to work with it. But this policy is now widely seen as having failed, letting the AfD criticise from the sidelines as any positive change remains slow.
skip past newsletter promotionSign up to Headlines EuropeFree newsletter
A digest of the morning’s main headlines from the Europe edition emailed direct to you every week day
Enter your email Sign upafter newsletter promotion
Biebricher said that despite all of Merz’s weaknesses, replacing him would not be a magic solution to the mountain of challenges facing German security and prosperity.
View image in fullscreenA forensic technician works near a Ukrainian aircraft at Leipzig airport, where a drone with an explosive device was found last month. Photograph: Hendrik Schmidt/DPA/AP
Besides the threat from Russia, he pointed to crumbling infrastructure, demographic pressure on social welfare, competition from China in once-mighty industries like car manufacturing, and geopolitical upheaval straining supply chains and energy imports.
“None of that simply goes away the moment you have someone who communicates better,” Biebricher told public radio.
View image in fullscreenVolkswagen employees during a rally against mass job cut plans in Zwickau in July. Photograph: Jens Schluter/AFP/Getty Images
Merz’s centre-right CDU-CSU bloc, split between conservatives and moderates, is nonetheless known for staying disciplined in times of crisis — if only out of fear of even worse consequences from drastic changes.
The situation is seen as so grim that it has caused paralysis, with neither the popular North Rhine-Westphalia state premier, Hendrik Wüst, nor Bavaria’s ambitious leader, Markus Söder, eager at this stage to take on the poisoned chalice.
“Merz has now reached a stage where the crisis — which he himself constantly makes worse — is stabilising him,” said veteran political journalist Bernd Ulrich of Die Zeit newspaper.
“The CDU and the government (in coalition with the Social Democrats) as a whole are in such a dire state that, as far as anyone can tell, no one wants to take over his post.”
Wüst, 51, leads a coalition with the Greens in Germany’s most populous state and faces a re-election battle next April. If he wins, calls for Merz to step aside for him may grow louder.
Söder, who represents the bloc’s conservative wing, shares Merz’s view that it needs to echo the AfD’s harsh rhetoric on migration to win back support — a strategy political scientists have long dismissed as counterproductive.Productive. 1:24 ‘We should have learned more from history’: Germans react to AfD win – video. Yet the dangers of holding off a revolt by betting on a status quo that voters so clearly reject are obvious. Much will depend on how bad the news is from the regional elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on 20 September. The AfD is polling well in both states, with clear momentum after Saxony-Anhalt, putting particular pressure on the CDU. During a heated clash with the AfD in parliament this week, in which he set out the threat it poses to German democracy, Merz reflected on how to steer the country – and himself – out of the current difficulties. He quoted from a letter he received from the rector of a theological university, who argued that many opportunities still lay ahead for Germany and advised him not to give in to despair. Merz said he intended to take this to heart and stay on as chancellor using a new roadmap: “Admit mistakes, forgive, get back on your feet, shape the future.”
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on the topic of the firewall breach regarding Friedrich Merz and the last chance for democracy narrative
Beginner Questions
Q What does Firewall breached mean in German politics
A It refers to the Brandmauer This is the informal agreement among mainstream German parties to never cooperate or form a coalition with the farright Alternative for Germany Breaching it means a mainstream party accepted votes from the AfD to pass legislation
Q Who is Friedrich Merz
A He is the leader of the Christian Democratic Union Germanys main centerright party He is also the conservative candidate for Chancellor in the 2025 federal election
Q What exactly did Merz do
A In late January 2025 Merz proposed a nonbinding motion in parliament to tighten migration rules He knowingly relied on votes from the AfD to pass it breaking the longstanding taboo against using farright votes to win
Q Why is this called democracys last chance
A Critics use this phrase to warn that if mainstream parties normalize working with the far right it could erode democratic norms and eventually lead to the AfD gaining real power similar to what happened in the Weimar Republic
Q Did Merz actually destroy democracy
A No Democracy in Germany is still functioning The phrase is a rhetorical warning about the risk of democratic backsliding not a statement of fact
Intermediate Questions
Q Why did Merz break the firewall
A He argued that after a deadly knife attack by a migrant in Aschaffenburg the situation was too urgent to wait He said he would not let the AfD dictate his agenda but he needed their votes to pass his migration motion
Q What was the reaction to Merzs move
A It caused massive backlash Former Chancellor Angela Merkel criticized him publicly Thousands protested across Germany The SPD and Greens accused him of breaking his word as he had promised before the election not to pass anything with AfD votes
Q Did the motion actually become law
