Russians are voting to elect a new State Duma in a tightly controlled election with no real competition and a predictable outcome. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party is expected to keep its hold on parliament, which it has maintained for 23 years, along with a few nominal opposition parties that reliably support the Kremlin on important issues. The three-day vote starts on Friday, with results expected after polls close on Sunday.
Despite the predictable result, this is the first Duma election since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, taking place during a war that once felt distant to many Russians but is now increasingly affecting daily life. Over the summer, waves of Ukrainian drones struck oil refineries, factories, and logistics hubs across Russia, while polling shows growing anxiety about how the war is going and what might come next. In response, the Kremlin has tightened its control even further.
Last month, authorities blocked Yabloko, the liberal anti-war party, from the ballot, removing the only remaining political force in Russia that openly opposed the invasion of Ukraine. That leaves a handful of other parties, from the Communists to the far-right Liberal Democrats, which together make up what is known in Russia as the “systemic opposition”: groups allowed to criticise the authorities on the edges, but which fall in line with United Russia on issues that matter to the Kremlin.
For years, these parties have acted as a political safety valve, giving voters a way to express discontent without seriously threatening the ruling party’s dominance. But even by the low standards of Russian politics, these parliamentary campaigns have been remarkably lifeless. “In most elections, candidates compete for attention. In Russia this year, many are doing the opposite,” said Farida Rustamova, a political analyst and founder of the independent Vlast newsletter. “No one wants to be in the spotlight or discuss anything sensitive.” Most candidates have barely campaigned at all, she noted.
Televised debates have sometimes taken place in half-empty studios because politicians didn’t show up, creating awkward clips that quickly became memes online. United Russia’s campaign videos have relied heavily on low-budget AI, with few memorable slogans or promises. None of the parties has dared to address the growing questions about the ongoing war that increasingly dominate private conversations.
“The Kremlin is deliberately keeping the election low-key, as greater interest would not benefit them. They don’t want to discuss difficult issues and just want to get it over with,” said a person close to the Kremlin, speaking anonymously. By keeping the election subdued, Moscow hoped to reduce turnout among disaffected and independent-minded voters while making sure its own supporters went to the polls, said Rustamova.
Yabloko’s exclusion followed the same logic. Several observers believe officials initially expected the party to get a negligible result, showing how little support remained for an explicitly anti-war platform. But when polling instead suggested growing support for the party, authorities removed it from the ballot rather than let it run.A risk of an unpredictable outcome. View image in fullscreen. A candidate for Russia’s liberal Yabloko party handing out flyers in Moscow. Photograph: Yulia Morozova/Reuters. Vladimir Gelman, a professor of Russian politics at the University of Helsinki, said another purpose of the elections was to give the Kremlin a continuing source of legitimacy and reinforce the impression that there was broad public consent behind the political system and the war. “Even though these elections are neither free nor fair, they are still the only source of legitimacy,” he said. In a televised address before the vote this week, Putin explicitly linked participation in the election to the war in Ukraine, presenting voting as a demonstration of unity in the face of outside pressure. “Your choice and your will will once again demonstrate that millions of people stand behind our soldiers, that we are a united people bound together by shared values, historical memory and love for our homeland,” Putin said. Putin himself secured another six-year term in the 2024 presidential election, with genuine opposition barred from the ballot, extending his rule until at least 2030. View image in fullscreen. Putin recording his video address to the nation. Photograph: Mikhail Metzel/Pool Sputnik Kremlin/AP. For many Russians, however, the election’s greater significance lies not in the result, but in what follows. With Moscow’s troops making little progress at high cost in Ukraine, rumours of another large-scale mobilisation have spread across the country. The fear is that once the election is safely out of the way and a compliant new Duma is installed, the Kremlin will have greater freedom to pursue unpopular measures it has so far avoided. The anxiety has already prompted some young men to leave the country, hoping to wait out any new mobilisation – scenes that carry echoes of September 2022, when hundreds of thousands of Russians fled after Putin announced the first wartime draft. The person close to the Kremlin said several friends had sent their sons abroad in recent weeks, a sign, he said, that even among those with access to the system, few are certain what will happen after the voting. Putin has sought to calm those fears. In recent weeks, he has twice dismissed suggestions that a new mobilisation is imminent. But those reassurances have not been enough for some men, including Dmitry, who flew to Yerevan, Armenia last week. “I’ll just wait a few weeks after the elections,” he said, adding that he felt the risk of a new mobilisation was too high to ignore. “Let’s see if anything changes after the vote.”
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Russians Vote in an Election Overshadowed by War and Putins Tightening Grip
Beginner Questions
1 What election are Russians voting in
Russia held a presidential election in March 2024 Vladimir Putin ran for a fifth term and won extending his rule to at least 2030
2 Who was allowed to run against Putin
Only a few candidates were allowed on the ballot and none openly opposed the war in Ukraine Most prominent critics were barred jailed or in exile
3 Why is this election described as overshadowed by the war
Because Russias invasion of Ukraine is the central fact of Russian political life The war affects the economy the military and how the government treats any dissent
4 What does Putins tightening grip on power mean
It means Putin has steadily weakened or eliminated checks on his authority independent media opposition parties courts and civil society especially since the war began
5 Did the election result surprise anyone
No Official results gave Putin a landslide as expected The outcome was widely seen as predetermined
Intermediate Questions
6 Were the elections free and fair
Independent observers and Western governments say no They point to suppressed opposition controlled media and reports of ballotstuffing and forced voting
7 Who were the other candidates
They included Nikolai Kharitonov Leonid Slutsky and Vladislav Davankov All were seen as loyal to the Kremlin
8 What happened to real opposition candidates
Boris Nadezhdin an antiwar candidate was disqualified Alexei Navalny the bestknown opposition leader died in prison in February 2024 Others were jailed or fled abroad
9 How did the government handle protests
Harshly Demonstrations were broken up and people who protested or even posted antiwar messages faced fines arrests or prison
10 How did the war affect voting in occupied parts of Ukraine
Russia held voting in occupied Ukrainian territories which Ukraine and most countries called illegal and coercive
Advanced Questions
11 How does this election compare to previous Russian elections
It was the most restricted yet Earlier elections allowed some token opposition by 2024 genuine
